Naslov
Economic impacts of climate variability in berry fruit – a decision analysis approach

Autori
Njavro, Mario ; Duralija, Boris

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, ostalo

Izvornik
Berry Production in Changing Climate Conditions and Cultivation Systems / Krüger, Erika - Geisenheim, 2008, 9-9

Skup
Berry Production in Changing Climate Conditions and Cultivation Systems

Mjesto i datum
Geisenheim, Njemačka, 29.10.2008. - 31.10.2008

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Plenarno

Vrsta recenzije
Nije recenziran

Ključne riječi
Climate change; risk; simulation model; economics; berry fruits

Sažetak
The risk environment for agribusiness is constantly changing. Weather risks are a major source of uncertainty. The occurrence of adverse weather events increased in the last decade is likely to continue increasing due to climate change. However, producers should also take account of the economic instability likely to occur and this will manifest itself through price changes, changes in supply networks, employment and insurance availability. Assessments of climate change on Croatian agriculture suggest that climate change will have positive effects on the increase in yields and quality of agricultural crops in continental part of Croatia. Nevertheless, crops will be threatened by higher air temperatures and the shortage of water during summer period. Researches on berry production have not been conduced yet. The objective of the paper is to assess economic impact of climate variability on berry production, namely strawberry and blackberry in the continental part of Croatia. The factors that will be taken in consideration are increase in mean temperatures, changes in precipitation, increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and greater weather variability (change in start and end of growing seasons). In achieving mentioned goals quantitative and qualitative decision management methods will be used. Approach will be based on the steps in risk management: 1) Identify risk, 2) Risk Assessment and 3) Select risk management strategies. Stochastic budgets will encompass uncertain factors like yields, growing/harvesting season, irrigation cost and prices. In the scarcity of data sources, base for budgeting will be founded on empirical results from previous projects ran by Department of pomology (ten years period). The paper aims to help berry producers to cope with increasing uncertainty related to climate risk by establishing a process of efficient risk management.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Poljoprivreda (agronomija)

POVEZANOST RADA