ࡱ> vOh+'0 , H T ` lx"Nuclear Energy Option for CroatiaosuclDanilo FereticOani Normal.dottTea KovacevicO511Microsoft Word 8.0o@@֬ɣ@ʌ@@hk_\t0Templates!ZHJ:i+00՜.+,D՜.+,T hp   FER-ZVNEn;j "Nuclear Energy Option for Croatia Title 6> _PID_GUIDAN{1B1EFDE0-E9D8-11D3-A750-00609757A181}J:i+00 NUCLEAR POWER AS AN OPTION IN ELECTRICAL GENERATION PLANNING FOR CROATIA Danilo Fereti, }eljko Tomai, Tea Kova evi Faculty of electrical engineering and computing Zagreb Abstract The expected increase of electricity consumption in the next two decades, if covered mainly by domestic production, will require roughly 4000 MW of new installed capacity. The question is which resource mix would be optimal for the future power plants. Taking into account lack of domestic resources for electricity generation, current trends in the European energy markets, and environmental impact of various energy technologies, it seems reasonable for Croatia to keep the nuclear option open in the future energy planning. In line with that conclusion, this paper analyzes how the introduction of nuclear power plants would influence future power system expansion plans in Croatia, and the possibility to meet the Kyoto requirement. The effects of CO2 emission tax and external costs on the optimal capacity mix and the emissions levels are also examined. Main Features of Croatian Power System Republic of Croatia, situated in the South-eastern Europe, spreads over 56.538 km2 and has about 4,76 million inhabitants. GDP in 1997 was around 4.000 US$ per capita, with the yearly growth rate of about 4%. The total electricity consumption in the year 1999 was 13,5 TWh of which about 2,5 TWh were imported. The breakdown of Croatian power system in the year 2000 is shown in  REF _Ref444697883 \h  \* MERGEFORMAT Figure 1. EMBED MSGraph.Chart.8 \sEMBED MSGraph.Chart.8 \sFigure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 1 Installed capacity in Croatian electric power system Current installed capacity in Croatian power system is 4015 MW, with half represented by hydro facilities. Almost 50 percent of thermal facilities accounts for oil and gas fired steam boilers, 20 percent are combined cycle gas units while the rest are coal and nuclear units. Per capita electricity consumption in 1999 was about 2.800 kWh, among lowest in Europe. No renewable facilities, except large hydro, are deployed for electricity generation yet. Several pilot projects with renewable energy sources are under consideration and should start off in the next few years. Environmental Indicators The most significant environmental impact of energy and electricity production is considered to be air pollution. Contribution of energy sector and separately of thermal power plants to total air emissions is shown in  REF _Ref444574655 \h  \* MERGEFORMAT Figure 2.  EMBED MSGraph.Chart.5 \s  EMBED MSGraph.Chart.5 \s  ( thermal power plants only; lower bar = energy sector (incl. TPPs); upper bar = other sectorsFigure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 2 Emissions in Croatia in 1990 and 1995 The amount of SO2 and NOx, gases responsible for acidification, "imported" from abroad exceeds the amount "exported" by Croatia. Roughly estimated, domestic thermal power plants contribute with only 3,3% to deposition of sulphur in Croatia, while with less than 0,3% to deposition of nitrogen [1]. It can be seen how important is the role of long(range transboundary pollution. This is taken into account by calculating damage costs of electricity generation on the European level, which is explained later in the paper. One of the key indicators of countrys sustainability is CO2 emission per capita. The total CO2 emission in the year 1995 in Croatia, from all sectors, amounted to 15,6 million tonnes or 3,15 tonnes per capita. The contribution of thermal power plants was 17% of that number, i.e. 0,56 tonnes per capita. The amount of CO2 emitted per kWh of electricity equalled 0,235 t CO2 per MWh in the year 1995. The European Union average in 1990 was 0,4 t CO2 per MWh [2]. Reasons to Maintain Nuclear Energy Option in Power System Expansion Planning in Croatia The electricity consumption forecast largely depends on the estimated GDP increase, because these two parameters are strongly correlated. This has been proven for each country regardless its wealth. The rates of increase of GDP and electricity consumption are similar, and in developing countries it is common that marginal electricity consumption grows faster than marginal GDP. According to present estimates, electrical energy consumption in Croatia will reach about 26-30 TWh by the year 2020 and 40-50 TWh by the year 2050 [2]. The increased electricity consumption in the next two decades, if covered mainly by inland production, will require roughly 4500 MW of installed capacity in new power plants, mainly thermal. The added capacity has to cover the higher level of consumption and the retirement of the existing facilities. The main candidates to cover future electricity needs are thermal power plants fuelled by imported coal and natural gas, as well as nuclear power plants. It has to be stressed that Croatia is a country with a large deficit in energy resources for electricity generation. The only national resource is hydropower while major amount of oil, gas and the total of coal is imported. Since the best of hydropower potential has been already exploited, the large majority of near(future power plants have to rely on imported natural gas. The key routes of gas supply are those from Eastern Europe through Hungary and from Northern Africa through Italy. The question is which resource mix would be optimal for the future power plants. The decision criteria are security of supply, economics and environmental issues. Utilities in general, particularly if small and privatized, give first priority to economics of power production and quick capital recovery. For a rough insight in plant economics let us assume the discount rate for all power plant options of 7%. The life time of fossil fired facilities is assumed 30 years while of nuclear facilities 40 years. An overview of approximate cost data for power plant candidates is given in  REF _Ref479158853 \h  \* MERGEFORMAT Table 1. Table  SEQ Table \* ARABIC 1 Cost data for power plant options Combined cycle gas fired (300 MW)Coal fired (300-500 MW)Nuclear (600 MW)Capital costs, $/kW (incl. interest during construction)60015002000Life time, years303040Annual costs (7% discount rate) %8,058,057,5Capital component of electricity cost (80% load factor), cents/kWh0,691,722,14O&M costs (no fuel), cents/kWh0,51,01,5Fuel cost, $/GJ3,52,00,42Thermal efficiency, %524135Fuel cost, cents/kWh2,431,760,43Electricity cost (fuel + capital), cents/kWh3,624,484,06Share of capital cost in electricity cost, %19,138,452,6Share of fuel cost in electricity cost, %67,139,310,6CO2 emission, kg/kWh0,3440,862-I: Emission tax (8 $/t CO2), cents/kWh0,280,69-II: 10% of fuel cost increase0,240,180,04I: Total electricity cost with carbon tax, cents/kWh 3,905,174,06II: Total electricity cost with 10% increased fuel costs but no carbon tax, cents/kWh3,864,664,10As indicated in the above table, present economic conditions favour gas combined cycle (CC) power plants. At the identical capacity factors, price of electricity produced in a CC gas fired power plant is lower than if produced in a nuclear power plant. However, this advantage is not very robust. An increase of gas costs by about 15% from present value and/or a modest carbon dioxide tax of around 10 $/t CO2, could reverse the competitiveness ( REF _Ref479651109 \h Figure 3). Inclusion of three various The effect of three different CO2 tax levels (US$ 8, 9 and 15 per ton of CO2) on the optimal resource mix for new power plants is examined towards the end of the paper ( REF _Ref480112308 \h Figure 9). Despite the fact that the cost advantage of gas units is not too robust, their additional advantage comes from several reasons: less risk to the investor regarding plant licencing and public acceptance, smaller investment and quicker capital recovery, shorter construction time (about 2 years) and easier financial arrangements for construction. This means that economic advantage of nuclear option has to be more than marginal in order to attract future investors. On the other hand, looking at the security of energy supply, nuclear option offers advantage over gas. This is particularly true for Western Europe where a considerable shortage in gas production, more than 300 billions m3 per year, is expected after the year 2020. Under such circumstances, the increase of gas price seems very probable. Figure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 3 Cost of electricity depending on the fuel price The environmental aspects of possible supply options favour the nuclear option. One of the most comprehensive studies dealing with environmental costs of electricity generation in Europe, ExternE (3(, showed that external costs caused by nuclear power plants and their energy chains are at least one order of magnitude smaller than those of coal fuel cycles and several times smaller than those of gas fuel chains. Considering the environmental issues and some other aspects associated with development of technical and technological know-how and industrial development, it seems reasonable for small European countries such as Croatia to keep the nuclear option open in energy planning. When exactly nuclear could become a realistic solution depends not only on economic parameters, but to a large extent also on the attitude to nuclear power in the neighboring countries. One of the decision factors in power system expansion planning nowadays is environmental performance. The environmental impact of various electricity supply options can be expressed in terms of money, through external costs. External costs can be used as an indicator in environmental policy, among others in power system expansion planning and resource selection. They can be added to direct production costs of a candidate facility and thus enter the cost function, which is minimized to obtain the optimal capacity expansion plan. Such example is made here: external costs of two candidate power plants are calculated, one coal and one gas fired unit, and the optimization of the future capacity mix was made based on the sum of direct and external costs. Since the previous analysis showed that coal facilities would be incompetitive compared to both gas and nuclear units even if no external costs are added, the primary aim here was to find out how external costs would change the competitiveness between gas and nuclear facilities. It is assumed that there is no limit on natural gas availability for electricity generation although this could turn out to be not true. External costs for the two fossil fired facilities are calculated using the impact pathway methodology, a world-wide recognized method for external cost calculation. This method will be briefly described and the estimated external costs for Croatian conditions will be given as follows. External Costs of Candidate Gas and Coal Power Plants in Croatia External costs of electricity represent the monetary value of the environmental damage caused by electricity generation. External costs of coal and gas fired power plants are calculated here, using the impact pathway or damage function methodology. The analyzed facilities are among candidates in the long-term expansion scenarios of Croatian power system. It is analyzed how the estimated external costs, when incorporated into total production costs, would affect the competitiveness of fossil-fired compared to nuclear power plants, i.e. how they influence the optimal expansion strategy of the Croatian power system. Method Description Impact assessment and valuation are performed using the 'damage function' or 'impact pathway' approach, which relates to a sequence of links between the burden and its impact. The impact pathway methodology consists of the following steps: (i) quantification of emissions, (ii) calculation of the associated ambient concentration increase by means of atmospheric dispersion and transport models, (iii) estimation of physical impacts using various exposure-response functions, and (iv) finally monetary evaluation of damages. The tool used to assess external costs caused by power plant operation is the EcoSense software (4(. Focus of this analysis was put on the effects of ambient air pollution on human health, as one of the priority impacts of electricity generation. Since air pollutants are transported over large distances, crossing national borders, their impacts are quantified both for population in Croatia and for the whole of Europe. Europe is mapped onto a grid comprised of 100x100 km sized cells, i.e. receptors. Long-range transport and dispersion of pollutants is assessed by a Lagrangian trajectory model, which examines incoming trajectories of air parcels arriving from different directions to the receptor point. The outputs from the model are atmospheric concentrations and deposition of emitted species and secondary pollutants in each grid cell. Incremental air pollution attributable to power generation is a mixture of pollutants emitted from stack (particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) and those formed subsequently in chemical reactions in the atmosphere (sulfate and nitrate particles, and tropospheric ozone). Both primary and secondary pollutants cause certain health effects, mostly connected to respiratory and circulation problems. Quantitative relationships have been established linking air pollution with health endpoints ( REF _Ref479668762 \h Table 2). Acute effects occur on the same day as increases in air pollution or very soon thereafter, while chronic effects are delayed and develop as a result of long-term exposure. More susceptible to symptoms are older people and those who suffer from respiratory diseases, e.g. asthmatics. Increased air pollution can not really cause 'additional' deaths, it can only reduce life expectancy. Length of life lost in cases of acute mortality is likely to be short - a few weeks or months. If mortality is caused by chronic illness, life reduction is considered to be several years. Here is the example of how additional mortality and restricted activity days can be calculated based on the given exposure-response functions: Mortality (number of cases) = exposure-response factor/100 ( baseline mortality ( population of the observed area ( pollutant concentration increase ((g/m3). Restricted activity days (number of days) = exposure-response factor/100 ( population of the observed area ( percentage of adults ( pollutant concentration increase ((g/m3). Table  SEQ Table \* ARABIC 2 Summary of exposure-response functions and monetary values (5( Impact CategoryMonetary value (ECU) (1)PollutantExposure-response factor (2)Acute mortality (3)155.000PM10 and nitrates0,040%PM2,5 and sulfates0,068%SO20,072%Chronic mortality (3, 4)83.000PM10 and nitrates0,390%PM2,5 and sulfates0,640%Hospital admissions,7.870PM10 and nitrates2,07(10-6respiratory problemsPM2,5 and sulfates3,46(10-6SO22,04(10-6Hospital admissions,7.870PM10 and nitrates5,04(10-6cerebrovascular problemsPM2,5 and sulfates8,04(10-6Restricted activity days (4)75PM10 and nitrates0,025PM2,5 and sulfates0,042Remarks to the above table: (1) mortality values given at a discount rate of 3%, based on years of life lost; 1 ECU = 1,25 US$ (1999). (2) slope of the exposure-response function is expressed in percentage change in annual mortality rate per unit of pollutant concentration increase (% change per (g/m3) for mortality, while in number of events per person per (g/m3 for morbidity. (3) baseline mortality in Croatia is 11 per 1000. (4) age group 14-65, in Croatia 68% of total population. Mortality impacts can be valued based on the willingness to pay (WTP) for reduction of the risk of death, or on the willingness to accept compensation (WTA) for an increase in risk. One year of life lost is estimated at 98.000 ECU, if no discounting is applied. If the discount rate is set to 3%, which is recommended for environmental damage valuation, money loss in case of acute death is 155.000 ECU, while 83.000 ECU if a fatal outcome is caused by a chronic illness. Morbidity impacts are valued based on medical treatment cost and lost wages. Application of the Impact Pathway Method on Croatia The aim of the analysis made here was to estimate costs of health damages through air pollution caused by two possible power generation technologies in Croatia in the near future: coal and natural gas fired facilities. Reference power plants, one coal and one gas combined cycle (CC) unit, are assumed to comply with current domestic emission standards [6], so the emission rates equal the upper emission limits. Basic technical end emission data are given in  REF _Ref450279940 \h Table 3. It was observed how each of those two power plants, if placed at a certain location in Croatia, would affect (a) population in Croatia, and (b) the whole of Europe. Power plants were moved across the country to check how the external costs vary with location. To determine the health impacts on population in Croatia only, grid cells belonging to Croatia were isolated in the matrix of results. The total affected population in Croatia is 4,8 million, while in the whole of Europe around 540 million. Spatial distribution of primary and secondary pollutant concentrations, combined with population distribution and the appropriate exposure-response functions is used to calculate health impacts on the population in Croatia and Europe and the associated external costs due to operation of the observed two power plants. Table  SEQ Table \* ARABIC 3 Technical data and emission rates of the analyzed power plants Coal firedNatural gas fired, CCNet capacity350 MW300 MWHours on full load7000 h/yr7000 h/yrFlue gas volume1,06 x 106 m3/h1,57 x 106 m3/hThermal efficiency41%52%Emissionsmg/m3g/kWhmg/m3g/kWhParticulates500,1500SO24001,2100NOx6501,971000,52CO22,84E+58620,66E+5344After examining several locations, possible for future power plants, a range of external costs was obtained. Results are shown in  REF _Ref479689427 \h Table 4. More detailed description of the method and the results can be found in [9]. The obtained external costs comprise only health impacts due to airborne emissions (particulates, SO2, NOx). Impacts of ground-level ozone, which is caused by NOx, and of global warming, caused by greenhouse gases, are not included. Due to lack of reliable ozone models, external costs of NOx via ozone are set to the uniform value of 1.500 ECU per ton of NOx for the whole of Europe. External costs of global warming are subject to large uncertainties, so they vary from 3,8 to 139 ECU per ton of CO2. The geometrical mean value was taken as the best estimate for global warming damages: 29 ECU/t. Table  SEQ Table \* ARABIC 4 External costs: summary of results Coal fired facilityGas fired facilityScope: Croatia only (4,8 million)mUS$/kWhmUS$/kWhParticulates0,29 ( 0,330SO2 (including sulfates)0,59 ( 0,930NOx (including nitrates)0,63 ( 1,960,18 ( 0,54Total*1,51 ( 3,220,18 ( 0,54Scope: Europe (540 million)mUS$/kWhmUS$/kWhParticulates1,99 ( 2,950SO2 (including sulfates)13,93 ( 15,720NOx (including nitrates)23,59 ( 28,106,91 ( 8,16Total*39,51 ( 46,776,91 ( 8,16* health damages due to tropospheric ozone (precursor: NOx) not included. Thus, external costs of power generation in fossil fuelled power plants are obtained as the sum of (i) airborne emissions damages, which are site specific, (ii) ground-level ozone damages that are for now considered uniform for the whole of Europe, and (iii) global warming damages that are considered uniform in the whole moderate climate zone. Those numbers are given in  REF _Ref479695362 \h Table 5, in the third row. External costs can be included in power system expansion planning, i.e. selection of the optimal future capacity mix. They can be added to production costs of candidate generation units and in that way incorporated into the optimization goal function. Such exercise was conducted in the following analysis. Table  SEQ Table \* ARABIC 5 Cases depending on the level of external costs included in optimization External cost (mUSD/kWh)Case namecoal gas nuclear 3,22 0,54 0,1external cost Croatiacoal: 46,77 + 3,69* gas: 8,16 + 0,98* nuclear50,46 9,14 0,1external cost Europe (including ozone)coal: 46,77 + 3,69* + 30,05** gas: 8,161 + 0,98* + 12,47** nuclear***80,51 21,61 0,1external cost Europe-total (including ozone and global warming)* due to tropospheric ozone, ** due to global warming, *** based on [8]. Power System Expansion Scenarios Electricity demand is influenced by the structure and growth of economy. Croatian GDP is expected to rise at an average annual rate of 5 percent till the year 2030, and electricity consumption at a rate of 3,3 percent (2(. Rational energy use and improvement of demand-side efficiency is taken into account. Future electricity demand will have to be covered in an environmentally sound way. Renewable energy sources: hydro, wind, solar, biomass and geothermal energy, could have an important role in achieving that requirement due to their indisputable environmental benefits. According to estimates (2, 7(, potentials of renewable sources for electricity generation vary between 3500 GWh in a moderate projection to 6000 GWh per year in the most optimistic perspective. That equals 10 to 15 percent of the estimated electricity needs in the year 2030. Since the deployment of renewables is very uncertain, and they can only cover a small share of future electricity needs, the following analysis will focus on conventional fossil fired and nuclear sources. On the basis of electricity consumption forecast and scheduled retirements of the existing power plants, projections of the needed new generating capacities have been made. It turned out that additional capacity of 4500 MW will have to be installed in the period 2001-2030. Fossil-fired (coal and natural gas) and nuclear power plants, together with several hydroelectric facilities, are chosen as candidates for system expansion ( REF _Ref416146535 \* MERGEFORMAT Table 6). No revolutionary technologies are chosen, but those already proven. All candidate power plants are designed to comply with current environmental standards in Croatia. Coal units will be equipped with electrostatic precipitators for particulates removal and with wet scrubbers for desulphurisation. Low-NOx combustion measures will be applied to reduce NOx emissions to the allowable levels. The existing power plants will not be equipped with any additional emission abatement devices before they are retired. Table  SEQ Table \* ARABIC 6 Technical and economic parameters of candidate thermal power plants Fuel / technology / sizeFuel cost(Investment*($/GJ)(%)($/kW)gas / combined cycle / units: 200, 300 MW3,552600coal / supercritical steam / units: 350, 500 MW2,0411500nuclear / PWR / units: 660 MW0,42352000* including interest during construction The aim here is to find the optimal expansion plan of new electricity generating facilities in Croatia, i.e. the one with the lowest annual production costs and still complying with the given requirements. Annual production costs are obtained as a sum of levelized fixed costs (comprised of annual capital cost recovery and yearly fixed maintenance cost) and annual variable costs (comprised of fuel cost and variable maintenance cost). They are shown in  REF _Ref479770402 \h Figure 4. Apart from directs costs, this picture also shows total costs of candidate units, with external costs added. Three levels of external costs are included, depending on the scope of analysis and the type of pollutants (receptors in Croatia only or in the whole of Europe; ozone and global warming included or not). The effect of CO2 tax (US$ 8 per ton of CO2) is also depicted. The latter of course affects only fossil fired power plants. Figure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 4 Annual production costs of candidate units, direct and with external costs added Annual production cost curves suggest that gas fired power plants are the most favourable option at all load factors. Nuclear is cheaper than coal if the load factor is greater than 50%, which is normally the case. If tax is imposed of 8 US$ per tonne of CO2 emitted, variable costs of coal fired units would significantly rise, making them even more expensive and less competitive to nuclear units. CO2 tax would much less affect gas fired units. Based on [8(, external costs of nuclear units in normal operation are assumed 0,12 mUSD/kWh on the regional scale. This is too small a value to be distinguished on the graph above, in other words the effect of external costs of normal operation on nuclear power plants is negligible. The effect of external costs on the optimal expansion plan In the selection process of the optimal capacity mix in the following 30(year period four cases were observed, each with different external cost value added to direct costs of expansion candidates. In the first case no external costs were added, so the optimization was conducted based on direct costs only. In the second case, called Ext. costs Croatia, the calculation was made with the external cost for Croatia, as given in  REF _Ref479689427 \h Table 4, which means that only damages within Croatia are taken into account. The upper value in the range was chosen following the conservative approach. The third case incorporated the external costs for the whole of Europe, plus the average ozone damage for Europe (Ext. costs Europe). In the fourth case, Ext. costs Europe(tot, the external costs from case 3 were increased by the value of global warming damages. The list of cases and the attached external costs is given in  REF _Ref479695362 \h Table 5. The optimal capacity mixes in those four cases are shown in  REF _Ref479998364 \h Figure 5, as cumulative values for the entire planning period. In all cases it is supposed that natural gas availability is unlimited. Figure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 5 Total added capacity by fuel, depending on the external cost level Apart from the minor share of hydro facilities, the optimal capacity mix if no external costs are added, i.e. in the reference case, consists only of gas CC power plants. This was to be expected from the earlier given cost curves. Further conclusion is that the country-level external costs (Croatia only) cannot affect the optimal solution much ( it still consists mainly of gas units, only with is a bit larger share of hydro power. However, if the value of external costs is high enough, optimal expansion plan does get strongly affected. That happens in cases 3 and 4, where European-level external costs are added. In the third case, where no global damages were included, three nuclear units enter the optimal capacity mix, whereas in the fourth case, where the global warming damages are also included in the cost function, optimal solution involves even four nuclear units. The time schedule of power plant additions and retirements for those two cases is given in  REF _Ref444662011 \h Figure 6. Three nuclear units in the optimal expansion plan would cover 40% of the newly installed capacity over the period i.e. 30% of the total installed capacity in the system in the year 2030 (the latter is 5760 MW). That would imply the average CO2 emission lower by 25% and end-of-period emission lower by 45% than in the reference case. In case of four nuclear units, the average CO2 emission would be about 26-27% lower and emission in the year 2030 almost 60% lower than in the reference case. Reference case is the one with only direct costs included in the optimization. The structure of new capacities is reflected on emission levels, as shown in  REF _Ref444606047 \h  \* MERGEFORMAT Figure 7 and  REF _Ref444665934 \h  \* MERGEFORMAT Figure 8. It has to be stressed that external costs are added only to candidate and not the existing units, because the purpose of this analysis was to examine the influence of external costs on resource selection and not on power system operation. Therefore, once the optimal capacity mix is determined, it is assumed that facilities are dispatched according to their direct costs, i.e. the economic loading order. In other words, external costs here are not meant to be imposed on any party, neither the producer nor the customer, and therefore should not affect the price of electricity. Figure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 6 Optimal capacity mixes in cases where nuclear energy enters the solution If there is no nuclear facilities installed, emission follow an upward trend. Carbon dioxide emissions in the year 1995 amounted to 2,7 million tonnes, or 72% of the pre-war value. By the year 2001, when the planning period begins, CO2 emissions are expected to rise to 5,2 million tonnes. Figure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 7 CO2 emissions in the observed period Croatian commitment in Kyoto is to start reducing total countrys CO2 emissions so that the average value in the period 2008-2012 is 5% lower than in 1990, and that the emissions are kept at that level afterwards. The corresponding requirement for the power sector is to reduce CO2 emissions to 7,1 million tonnes per year. The average CO2 emission in the period 2008-2012 would be 6,82 Mt/year. This is similar in all cases since bigger differences occur only in the second half of the planning period, with the retirement of the existing units. Although this value is below the Kyoto limit, the rising emission trend suggests the goal of long-term reduction would not be met. Only the case with four nuclear units could keep CO2 emissions below the Kyoto limit in the long run. Power sector SO2 emissions, which in the year 1995 equalled 25 kilotonnes, will continue to decrease in the observed period. The reason for the downward trend are gradual retirements of the existing oil-fired power plants, lower sulphur content in fuels and desulphurisation devices in new coal power plants. Emissions of SO2 in all of the observed cases are expected to drop to negligible amounts till the year 2030, because no coal or oil units are added. The same happens with particulate matter emissions; from the initial amount of around 2 kilotonnes in 2001 they drop to 0,7 to 0,8 kt in the year 2030. Their emission curve is very similar to the one of SO2 emissions. Figure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 8 Emissions of SO2, NOx and particulates in the observed period Emissions of NOx in the year 2001 are expected to be 10 kilotonnes. During the observed period they would triple if only gas facilities are built. Only if more nuclear units are deployed, NOx emissions could be kept at low levels, around 20-30% percent higher than today. The effect of CO2 emission tax on the optimal expansion plan In this part it is examined in what way various CO2 tax levels would affect the optimal capacity mix. The idea is similar to the one in the previous example: CO2 tax is added to variable costs of fossil fired power plants, and optimization of power system expansion is conducted based on the increased costs. The only diference is that CO2 tax is added to all units, both the existing and the candidate ones, because that is how the system of emissions taxes (charges) would probably function in reality. Three levels of CO2 tax were examined: US$ 8, 9 and 15 per ton. These values are in the accordance with real CO2 taxes applied in some countries, and still lower than the mean estimate of global warming damage (36 US$/t, according to ExternE study). Total added capacity by fuel, depending on the height of CO2 tax, is shown in  REF _Ref480112308 \h Figure 9. Figure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 9 Total capacity added depending on the CO2 tax A tax of $ 8 per ton of CO2 would not significantly affect the optimal solution - hydro generation would increase, but majority of new facilities would still be gas fired. However, only a slight increase of tax, to $ 9 per ton, would decrease the cost effectiveness of gas facilities so that one nuclear unit would enter the optimal solution. Further increase of CO2 tax to $ 15 per ton would call for even 3 nuclear units in the optimal solution. Figure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 10 Effect of CO2 emission tax on the emission levels The capacity structure is reflected in the emissions levels. Since the former example showed that SO2 and particulates emissions do not pose a problem if no coal units are deployed, only NOx and CO2 emissions are shown here ( REF _Ref480116019 \h Figure 10). A significant emission drop happens whenever a nuclear unit comes online. Each nuclear unit saves around 4,5 kt NOx and about 1,5 ton of CO2 each year. Those values correspond to 13-14% of emissions in the year 2030. Conclusion Preliminary screening shows both economic and environmental advantage of natural gas plants. Gas-dominated options have the lowest CO2 emissions, due to high conversion efficiencies of gas combined cycle plants. SOx and particulates emissions are also significantly lower in gas-dominated options. Power system expansion that includes nuclear power plants is most environmentally friendly. Nuclear power proved as the only way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In the assumed higher scenario of electricity consumption, it takes three or even four nuclear units to substantially reduce CO2 emissions till the year 2030 and keep them stable in the long run, though the short-term Kyoto target (2008-2012) could be met with no nuclear additions. The analysis showed that CO2 tax would have an immense effect on the capacity structure, and small changes could cause large consequences. A tax of 8 $ per ton of CO2 would not affect the optimal solution, while a double so high value would make a big difference when selecting generation technology, giving advantage to nuclear power. External costs on the country level (Croatia only), if added to direct costs of the candidate power plants, would not affect the optimal solution. However, if external costs for the whole of Europe are added, nuclear power would dominate the optimal solution. It has to be noted that the relations would change considerably if natural gas availability is limited. In that case the competitors would be nuclear and coal facilities which means that optimal solution would include mostly nuclear power, if the fuel price and investment requirements are kept the same as above. References (1( Assessment of Risk on Human Health and Environment Caused by Energy and Other Complex Systems in Zagreb and Possibilities of Its Reduction, study made by Ekonerg - Institute for Energy and Environment Protection, Final Report, Zagreb, 1992. (2( Energy Strategy of Republic of Croatia (in Croatian), Ministry of Economy, Zagreb, 1998. (3( European Commission, DGXII: ExternE Project, Methodology Report, 2nd Edition, Brussels, 1998. (4( EcoSense 2.0 User's Manual, Institut fr Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER), Universitt Stuttgart, 1997. (5( ExternE National Implementation Germany, Final Report, IER, Stuttgart, 1997. (6( Pravilnik o grani nim vrijednostima emisija one iaujuih tvari iz stacionarnih izvora, Narodne novine, Slu~beni list 140/1999. (7( National energy programmes - Introductory book (in Croatian), Energy Institute H. Pozar, Zagreb, 1998. (8( Rabl, Curtiss, Spadaro et al: Environmental Impacts and Costs: The Nuclear and the Fossil Fuel Cycles, Report to European Commission DGXII, Armines (Ecole de Mines), Paris, 1996. 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Other sourcesT㥛 @= ףp=?p= ׳a@p@z6@Dl>@'1z3@|?5^B@ TPP[Q@On"@Q?S㥻?333333?uVB@ +?{Gz?WY%= N/>X4(  ~  <,  AAA?u K] , H $ < year 1990< K 3d( 3Q  Energy sectorQQQ3_    d4E4 3Q  Other sourcesQQQ3_   fO G i*@za$E2fY_,I!)( >|Wide upward diagonal d4E4 3Q  TPPQQQ3_ M NM  d4E4D$% M 3O&Q4$% M 3O&Q4FA^  3O 3 bo#M-&43*N#M&! M4% PJBM Z3O&Q kt/yr'4523  NM43d" 3_  NM  d444A^  3O3 b! 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