ࡱ> 5@bjbj22 nXXJZ   ttt$$$$P$<(&[h&''''(((Z[[[[[[$0]R_P%[]t2((22%[''[/:/:/:2"'t'Z/:2Z/:/:M:6Rrt)U'& $y8SYD[0[S`_9_8)U)UZ_tU8(2+H/:-/(((%[%[$9d$ Evaluation of Potential of the Shipbuilding Cluster in the Split-Dalmatia County by SWOT Analysis and AHP Method Ivica Ve~a, Zoran Babi , Marko Hell, Nikaa Nikoli University of Split, Croatia ABSTRACT This paper deals with the cluster efficiency evaluation in the shipbuilding industry of the Split-Dalmatia County. The global trend of interconnecting businesses into clusters to enhance productivity and competitiveness results in a shipbuilding cluster including over 50 companies. To evaluate the potential of the cluster we use the hybrid method AWOT, which is a combination of two decision support tools: the AHP and SWOT analysis. In the first step, the survey conducted among the eminent experts directly involved in the process of cluster formation is the basis for identification of internal strengths and weaknesses of the shipbuilding cluster and external opportunities and threats coming from its environment. In the second step, the AHP method is used to rank the importance of each particular element and to select among the four proposed cluster development strategies the most efficient one. Key words: shipbuilding, cluster, SWOT, AHP INTRODUCTION The restructuring and privatization of the Croatian shipbuilding industry are the critical elements of transitional reform and development policy of the entire country. One causative factor making these changes necessary is competition on the global level. Additionally, due to the importance of the shipbuilding industry in Croatias economic structure, this process definitively affects the transformation of the income-generating principle prevailing in socialism into the principle of profit dominating in the market-based economy. Forming a shipbuilding cluster is a very demanding decision making problem. To evaluate the realization of such a complex project this study involves the SWOT analysis ([3], [16]) which should help the decision-makers in their final selection of the implementation scenario. However, the SWOT analysis by itself is frequently a mere listing of internal strengths and weaknesses and external opportunities and threats. Therefore it can only be the first step in a more sophisticated procedure. In this work the data collected by the survey conducted among the experts directly involved in the process of cluster formation are the basis for identification of internal strengths and weaknesses of the shipbuilding cluster and external opportunities and threats coming from its environment. After that first stage in which the SWOT analysis is used for identification and definition of the basic elements, in the second phase the AHP method is used to rank the influence of each particular element and to select the most efficient shipbuilding cluster development strategy of the four proposed. This paper is organized as follows: following this Introduction, the Section 2 presents a short overview of development and usage of the combination of the two decision support tools, SWOT and AHP, which is known as AWOT method. In the Section 3, we present the methodology and the way of using of the AHP method in the given problem. The Section 4 presents the application of the proposed methodology on the shipbuilding cluster in the Split-Dalmatia County. The Section 5 summarizes the paper and indicates the possible directions for further research. REVIEW OF RESEARCH CARRIED OUT TO DATE This work uses a hybrid method, i.e. a combination of SWOT analysis with one of the most frequently used multicriteria decision making methods Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP). The combination of these two methods is frequently called AWOT and for the first time it was applied in the analysis of the forest industry in Finland (Kurttila et al. [6]) and then in selection of management scenario in the Finnish Forest and Park Service (Pesonen et al. [9]). Very soon this approach was also used in selection of the forest industry investment strategies for Finnish companies in North America (Pesonen et al. [8]). Shortly after these first applications of the AWOT concept on the Finnish forest industry the same or similar methodology was applied in tourist management (Kajanus et al. [4]), in exploring the potential of silvopasture adoption in south-central Florida (Shretha et al. [13]). Stewart et al. [14] applied exactly the same AWOT version as before in an information technology management case study. The basic AWOT methodology was developed and enhanced. Thus Kajanus et al. in their above mentioned work [4] instead of the AHP use SMART (Simple Multi-Atribute Rating Technique) in combination with the SWOT analysis. Leskinen et al [7] used the statistical analyses to produce information concerning the uncertainties included in the priority calculations of the SWOT factors. Yuksel and Dagdeviren [17] went a step further. Namely, they assumed that the SWOT factors presented in the hierarchical structure were not mutually independent. In that case the AHP model has some shortcomings, so they propose an extension of the original AWOT approach by using the Analytic Network Process (Saaty [11]) which allows interdependence of hierarchical elements working out their feedbacks and carries out the final calculation for the composite value of a particular scenario or alternative. Zadnik-Stirn [18], [19] enhances the AWOT procedure evaluating the possible strategies by fuzzy logic, using the surveys carried out on the set of 50 experts and their evaluations of possible strategies. The use of hybrid methods in practical applications has been lately increasingly supported by researchers and practitioners. Such approaches most frequently use two or more MCDM methods or a combination of the MCDM methods and other decision support approaches. Belton and Stewart [2] and Schmoldt et al. [12] point to the need for such integrated approach, as applying hybrid methods, or multiple different methods simultaneously to the same decision problem, might well serve the purpose from the behavioural and educational point of view. PROBLEM FORMULATION AWOT is an example of hybrid method, namely a combination of two decision support tools: the AHP and SWOT analysis. The main aim in applying two different approaches in the one and the same planning process is to make use of their advantages in a compatible manner, but it also serves in adopting ideas of multiple-criteria support to practical planning problems (Kangas et al. [5]). In this approach SWOT forms the general framework and the AHP is applied within this framework in order to bring quantitative analysis into the planning process. The idea in utilizing the AHP within a SWOT framework is to systematically evaluate SWOT factors and make them commensurable as regards their intensities. The AHPs qualities can be regarded to be valuable characteristics in SWOT analysis. Additional value from a SWOT analysis can be achieved by performing pairwise comparison between the SWOT factors and then analyzing them by means of the eigenvalue technique as applied in the AHP. After carrying out the comparisons, useful quantitative information can be obtained about the decision making situation. For example it can be analyzed if there are some weaknesses requiring all of the attention, or if the company is expected to be faced with future threats exceeding the companys combined opportunities (Kurtilla et al. [6]). Besides that using AWOT enables choice alternatives or strategies to be evaluated with respect to each SWOT group, and when the importance of all SWOT groups has also been determined, the choice strategies can be prioritized with respect to the strategic choice situation as a whole. AWOT model provides the possibility of improving the usability of SWOT analysis. SWOT can provide a good basis for successful strategy/alternative formulation, but it lacks the possibility of comprehensively appraising the strategic decision making situation. It identifies the factors in strength, weakness, opportunity and threat groups, but does not find the most significant group. In addition, it does not asses the fit between SWOT factors and decision alternatives, and finally SWOT is mainly based on the qualitative analysis and expertise of the persons participating in the evaluation and decision process (Zadnik [18]). Due to this, to yield analytically determined priorities for the SWOT factors and to make them commensurable the Saatys decision analysis method, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and its eigenvalue calculation method were integrated with SWOT analysis. Pairwise comparisons between SWOT factors within each SWOT group and between four SWOT groups are carried out. Finally, the composite values of the alternatives (strategies) are calculated using the surveys carried out among experts familiar with the problems of the shipbuilding industry. In most of the studies using AWOT analysis it was pointed out that the four SWOT groups are not directly measurable by themselves, but are presented by factors which are found at the second level. The factor with the highest priority is then chosen from each group to represent a group. These four factors are then compared and their relative priorities are calculated by AHP. These are the scaling factors of the four SWOT groups and they are used to calculate the overall (global) priorities of the independent factors within them. This work uses a slightly different methodology. As a comprehensive survey has been carried out among the process participants, the factors of each SWOT group also generate quite well the importance of the entire group. These factors define the cumulative effect of the SWOT group. Hence, their impacts on the group to which they belong must be aggregated. The composite value of objective (SWOT group) is measured based on a number of attributes (factors) and their priorities. Simple method of aggregation involving the linear combination of all factors and groups is used. Zadnik-Stirn [19] does it in a similar way, but she uses fuzzy numbers to define the composite value of the alternatives. We will use alternatives as the third level of hierarchy. If in the second level (SWOT factors) too many factors exist we can divide them in two or more subgroups. Namely, the number of pairwise comparisons needed in the analysis increases very rapidly if the number of factors within SWOT group increases. For the pairwise comparisons between alternatives/strategies (at the last level) we will use the results of the questionnaires but not in fuzzy manner as in [19] but rather obtaining evaluations of alternatives per each SWOT factor from the performed survey, where all the ratings are transformed into a benefit form, i.e. the higher number means that the strategy is more acceptable. Composite values of all strategies are then calculated through the hierarchy. CASE STUDY Based on the SWOT analysis carried out in the study Shipbuilding industry development concept in Split-Dalmatia County [15], this work proposes four possible development strategies for the shipbuilding cluster. The strategies were formulated in consultancy with a number of experts from Croatian shipyards and universities (professors, top management and supervisory boards). The four strategies proposed are: A1 Production programme within the cluster remains unchanged (tankers, bulk-carriers, etc.) A2 Production programme is extended by including production of special vessels (fishing boats, passenger liners, off-shore platforms, etc.) A3 In addition to shipbuilding, new products are introduced (information-communication technology, automated systems, vehicles, etc.) A4 Production programme is extended to include repair and other services within shipbuilding industry and beyond it. When forming the evaluation model for particular strategies we must have in mind that for the idea of cluster formation, disregarding which strategy is implemented, all the SWOT factors and SWOT groups need not be equally important. Due to that, the above mentioned competent experts in shipbuilding industry were surveyed, who by pairwise comparison and AHP were comparing both the weights of the SWOT groups (strength, weakness, opportunity, threat) and individual SWOT factors within each single group. The questionnaries were developed in standard AHP manner using the Expert Choice software. On the first hierarchy level there are four criteria Ck (k = 1,, 4), or four SWOT groups: C1 Strengths, C2 Weaknesses, C3 Opportunities and C4 Threats. On the second hierarchy level we have 24 SWOT factors which are divided into four SWOT groups in this way: Strengths: S1 - Shipbuilding tradition and experience S2 - Possession of a niche in the global market S3 - Appreciated and recognisable global product built and tailored to customers needs S4 - Long lasting participation in the global market offering good projects and quality S5 - Lower price in comparison to renowned European producers Weaknesses: W1 - Insufficient efficiency of the operating system W2 - Indebtedness and operation financing problems W3 - Low technological level of production facilities W4 - Comparative lagging in productivity W5 - Staff structure inadequately adapted to new technologies W6 - Semi-skilled labour and high turnover of qualified workforce W7 - Weak horizontal and vertical integration into the broader environment Opportunities: O1 - Stabilized global market and possibility to make new contracts O2 - Favourable position of the Government towards shipbuilding as a strategic industry (maritime orientation) O3 - Synergy effects within Croatian shipbuilding industry O4 - Export oriented industry O5 - Opportunity to create entrepreneurial zones for business partners O6 - Opportunity of financing from EU-accession funds Threats: T1 - Globalized market of ship space T2 - Increasing competition through globalisation, emergence of new shipbuilding countries with low labour costs T3 - Delays in creation of national shipbuilding strategy T4 - Government obligations in terms of Stabilization and Association Agreement T5 - European competitors in the Croatian market T6 - Problem of qualified workforce (at the local and regional level) and lack of permanent personnel training. By the AHP methodology ratings of effects on the shipbuilding cluster formation for each SWOT group were obtained. Based on the survey of 10 experts pairwise comparisons were obtained (Saaty scale) which, after taking the geometrical mean of these judgments, resulted in weights for each particular SWOT group. The results are shown in the Figure 1. From the Figure 1 it can be seen that (1 = 0.224, (2 = 0.301, (3 = 0.188 and (4 = 0.288, which represents the effect of a particular SWOT group on the idea of shipbuilding cluster formation. It is obvious that the surveyed experts perceived that in the current situation members of the shipbuilding cluster have more significant weaknesses and threats than strengths and opportunities.  Figure 1. Weight ratings of SWOT groups ((k) and SWOT factors (xj) As stated above, within each SWOT group, individual SWOT factors were identified. Pairwise comparisons were carried out again to obtain the rating for each single SWOT factor within its SWOT group. Twenty-four different SWOT factors were identified: 5 strengths, 7 weaknesses, 6 opportunities and 6 threats. In that way, the factor weights (xj, j = 1,,24) were obtained within each SWOT group, that are also shown in the Figure 1. Here it is important to note that in the final review the SWOT factors are ordered by importance. If the marks S = {1, ,5}, W = {6,,12}, O = {13,,18} and T = {19,,24} are introduced, it can be easily seen that:  EMBED Equation.3  (1) As already stated, four different strategies were designed for the problem of cluster formation Ai (i = 1,,4). By surveying a group of experts, ratings for each single strength, weakness, opportunity and threat were obtained. Each strategy was marked from 1 to 5 considering the way how it can use the existing strengths and opportunities, and how well it can eliminate weaknesses and threats. The higher mark meant that the selected strategy can better use strengths and opportunities or eliminate weaknesses and strengths. The average marks of these strategies were marked with aij (i = 1,,4; j = 1,,24). Based on the weights of each SWOT factor (xj) each alternative obtains its mark bik for the corresponding SWOT group, i.e.  EMBED Equation.3  ( i-strategy rating in terms of the considered strengths  EMBED Equation.3  ( i-strategy rating in terms of the considered weaknesses,  EMBED Equation.3  ( i-strategy rating in terms of the considered opportunities,  EMBED Equation.3  ( i-strategy rating in terms of the considered threats. These ratings are shown in the Table 1. Table 1. Ratings of SWOT factors in particular strategies A1A2A3A4Strength EMBED Equation.3 4.6883.7832.1502.939Weakness EMBED Equation.3 1.8303.5283.9873.257Opportunity EMBED Equation.3 3.4054.1343.9533.658Threat EMBED Equation.3 1.9873.1444.2723.745 The final evaluation of each single alternative (cumulative value) was obtained by weighting the ratings obtained by single alternatives in terms of each SWOT group (bik) with weights of each single SWOT group ((k), i.e. CV(Ai) = bis((1 + biw((2 + bio((3 + bit((4 . (2) Thus calculation for the first strategy is: CV(A1) = 4.688 ( 0.223 + 1.830 ( 0.302 + 3.405 ( 0.189 + 1.987 (0.286 = 2.8099 And analogously CV(A2) = 3.5896, CV(A3) = 3.6524, CV(A4) = 3.4014. Consequently, it is obvious that the first strategy (the existing production programme) is completely unacceptable, and that the best alternatives are strategies A3 and A2. CONCLUSION As cluster formation is a very complex task that has to be carefully prepared, it requires the use of new methods. In this paper the authors perform the evaluation of the most efficient shipbuilding cluster development strategy by using one of the latest hybrid methods for multicriteria decision making, i.e. the AWOT method which is a combination of SWOT analysis and analytical hierarchy process. Using the assessment of the eminent experts directly involved in the process of cluster formation the authors evaluate the four possible development strategies: A1 Production programme within the cluster remains unchanged A2 Production programme is extended by including production of special vessels A3 In addition to shipbuilding, new products are introduced A4 Production programme is extended to include repair and other services within shipbuilding industry and beyond it. 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[19] Zadnik Stirn, L. (2007.): Evaluation of Environmental Investment Projects Using a Hybrid Method (SWOT/AHP), Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Operational Research - KOI 2006, Pula, Croatia, pp. 245-256.  For useful comments and suggestions we would like to thank the anonymous reviewers and the discussants at the 2008 B&ESI Conference in Lugano.     PAGE  mcz{_`a h]hgd &`#$gd>T$~^~`a$gdR ^`gd ^`gdE  ^`gdhJhHTICJhyh}5 01h:pf. A!"#$% 5 01h:pC~. 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