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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 371116

Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time (DART) : multi-model superensembles prediction in a coastal ocean regime

Rixen, M; Carta, A; Grandi V.; Gualdesi L., Ranelli, P.; Book, J.; Martin, P.J.; Preller, R; Oddo, P; Pinardi, N; Guarnieri, A. et al.
Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time (DART) : multi-model superensembles prediction in a coastal ocean regime // Workshop Recent Advances in Adriatic Oceanography and Marine Meteorology : Book of abstracts / Orlić, Mirko ; Pasarić, MIroslava (ur.).
Zagreb: Geofizički odsjek Prirodoslovno-matematičkog fakulteta Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, 2008. str. 51-51 (predavanje, nije recenziran, sažetak, znanstveni)

CROSBI ID: 371116 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca

Naslov
Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time (DART) : multi-model superensembles prediction in a coastal ocean regime

Autori
Rixen, M ; Carta, A ; Grandi V. ; Gualdesi L., Ranelli, P. ; Book, J. ; Martin, P.J. ; Preller, R ; Oddo, P ; Pinardi, N ; Guarnieri, A. ; Chiggiato, J. ; Carniel, S. ; Russo, Aleksandar ; Orlić, Mirko ; Tudor, Martina ; Vandenbulcke, L. ; Lenartz, F. ; DART consortium

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
Workshop Recent Advances in Adriatic Oceanography and Marine Meteorology : Book of abstracts / Orlić, Mirko ; Pasarić, MIroslava - Zagreb : Geofizički odsjek Prirodoslovno-matematičkog fakulteta Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, 2008, 51-51

ISBN
978-953-6076-18-5

Skup
Workshop Recent Advances in Adriatic Oceanography and Marine Meteorology

Mjesto i datum
Dubrovnik, Hrvatska, 05.11.2008. - 07.11.2008

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Nije recenziran

Ključne riječi
Adriatic; super-ensembles; models; prediction

Sažetak
Multi-model Super-Ensembles (SE) aimed at combining optimally different models have been shown to improve significantly atmospheric weather predictions. In the coastal ocean, complex, yet poorly understood dynamics, the presence of small-scales processes, the lack of real-time data at appropriate spatio-temporal resolution and limited reliability of operational models so far prevented the application of SE methods. Here, we report results from state-of-the-art super-ensemble techniques based on dynamic combinations of SEPTR (a trawl-resistant bottom mounted platform transmitting in near real-time) data and a series of eight operational models ran during the DART (Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time) experiment in a coastal area. Kalman filter and particle filter SE-based methods which allow for dynamic evolution of weights and associated uncertainty show increased temperature prediction skill (+10%) as compared to single models. The latter method copes with non-Gaussian error statistics and reduces the forecast uncertainty by a further 30%.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija



POVEZANOST RADA

Projekti:
004-1193086-3036 - Oluje i prirodne katastrofe u Hrvatskoj (Ivančan-Picek, Branka, MZOS ) ( CroRIS)
119-1193086-3085 - Utjecaj atmosfere i topografske varijabilnosti na procese u moru (Orlić, Mirko, MZOS ) ( CroRIS)

Ustanove:
Državni hidrometeorološki zavod,
Prirodoslovno-matematički fakultet, Zagreb

Profili:

Avatar Url Mirko Orlić (autor)

Avatar Url Martina Tudor (autor)

Avatar Url Aleksandar Russo (autor)

Citiraj ovu publikaciju:

Rixen, M; Carta, A; Grandi V.; Gualdesi L., Ranelli, P.; Book, J.; Martin, P.J.; Preller, R; Oddo, P; Pinardi, N; Guarnieri, A. et al.
Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time (DART) : multi-model superensembles prediction in a coastal ocean regime // Workshop Recent Advances in Adriatic Oceanography and Marine Meteorology : Book of abstracts / Orlić, Mirko ; Pasarić, MIroslava (ur.).
Zagreb: Geofizički odsjek Prirodoslovno-matematičkog fakulteta Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, 2008. str. 51-51 (predavanje, nije recenziran, sažetak, znanstveni)
Rixen, M., Carta, A., Grandi V., Gualdesi L., Ranelli, P., Book, J., Martin, P., Preller, R., Oddo, P., Pinardi, N. & Guarnieri, A. (2008) Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time (DART) : multi-model superensembles prediction in a coastal ocean regime. U: Orlić, M. & Pasarić, M. (ur.)Workshop Recent Advances in Adriatic Oceanography and Marine Meteorology : Book of abstracts.
@article{article, author = {Rixen, M and Carta, A and Book, J. and Martin, P.J. and Preller, R and Oddo, P and Pinardi, N and Guarnieri, A. and Chiggiato, J. and Carniel, S. and Russo, Aleksandar and Orli\'{c}, Mirko and Tudor, Martina and Vandenbulcke, L. and Lenartz, F.}, year = {2008}, pages = {51-51}, keywords = {Adriatic, super-ensembles, models, prediction}, isbn = {978-953-6076-18-5}, title = {Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time (DART) : multi-model superensembles prediction in a coastal ocean regime}, keyword = {Adriatic, super-ensembles, models, prediction}, publisher = {Geofizi\v{c}ki odsjek Prirodoslovno-matemati\v{c}kog fakulteta Sveu\v{c}ili\v{s}ta u Zagrebu}, publisherplace = {Dubrovnik, Hrvatska} }
@article{article, author = {Rixen, M and Carta, A and Book, J. and Martin, P.J. and Preller, R and Oddo, P and Pinardi, N and Guarnieri, A. and Chiggiato, J. and Carniel, S. and Russo, Aleksandar and Orli\'{c}, Mirko and Tudor, Martina and Vandenbulcke, L. and Lenartz, F.}, year = {2008}, pages = {51-51}, keywords = {Adriatic, super-ensembles, models, prediction}, isbn = {978-953-6076-18-5}, title = {Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time (DART) : multi-model superensembles prediction in a coastal ocean regime}, keyword = {Adriatic, super-ensembles, models, prediction}, publisher = {Geofizi\v{c}ki odsjek Prirodoslovno-matemati\v{c}kog fakulteta Sveu\v{c}ili\v{s}ta u Zagrebu}, publisherplace = {Dubrovnik, Hrvatska} }

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