Naslov
Prediction of the time-dependent failure rate for normally operating components taking into account the operational history

Autori
Vrbanić, Ivan ; Šimić, Zdenko ; Šljivac, Damir

Izvornik
Kerntechnik (0932-3902) 73 (2008), 4; 190-196

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
risk; operating component; time-dependent failure rate; prediction

Sažetak
The prediction of the time-dependent failure rate has been studied, taking into account the operational history of a component used in applications such as system modeling in a probabilistic safety analysis in order to evaluate the impact of equipment aging and maintenance strategies on the risk measures considered. We have selected a time-dependent model for the failure rate which is based on the Weibull distribution and the principles of proportional age reduction by equipment overhauls. Estimation of the parameters that determine the failure rate is considered, including the definition of the operational history model and likelihood function for the Bayesian analysis of parameters for normally operating repairable components. The operational history is provided as a time axis with defined times of overhauls and failures. An example for demonstration is described with prediction of the future behavior for seven different operational histories.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Elektrotehnika

POVEZANOST RADA