Naslov
Testing for Granger Causality between Economic Sentiment Indicator and Gross Domestic Product for the Croatian Economy

Autori
Bahovec, Vlasta ; Čižmešija, Mirjana ; Kurnoga Živadinović, Nataša

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Operational Research SOR '07 / Zadnik Stirn, Lidija ; Drobne, Samo - Nova Gorica : Slovensko društvo informatika, 2007, 403-408

ISBN
978-961-6165-25-9

Skup
The 9th International Symposium on Operational Research SOR '07

Mjesto i datum
Nova Gorica, Slovenija, 26.09.2007. - 28.09.2007

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Grangerova uzročnost; Dickey-Fullerov test; ESI- Indeks ekonomskog raspoloženja; BDP - bruto tdmaći proizvod
(Granger Causality; Augmented Dickey-Fuller test; ESI- Economic Sentiment Indicator; GDP -Gross Domestic Product)

Sažetak
Granger causality test is useful to determining whether one time series is useful in forecasting another. In this paper we examine wheter data from Business Tendency Surveys are useful for forecasting some selected referent macro economy variables in the short run. We compare the Economic Sentiment Indicator – ESI as a composite indicator for the whole Business survay with the GDP for Croatia. It is evident that the ESI in Croatia correctly predict changes in a national economy (expresed with GDP growht) two quarters in advanse.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA