Naslov
Klimatske promjene i utjecaj na zdravlje
(Climate change and the influence on health)

Autori
Zaninović, Ksenija ; Gajić-Čapka, Marjana

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, ostalo

Izvornik
Klimatske promjene i utjecaj na infektivne bolesti / Jeren, Tatjana - Zagreb : Klinika za infektivne bolesti “ Dr. Fran Mihaljević”, 2007, 13-14

Skup
73. Znanstveno-stručni simpozij s međunarodnim sudjelovanjem

Mjesto i datum
Zagreb, Hrvatska, 14.12.2007

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Pozvano predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Nije recenziran

Ključne riječi
climate change; infectious diseases

Sažetak
The climate of the Earth is constantly changing system due to the influence of different astronomical, physical and chemical factors. During the last hundred years human activities have been increased so extensive that they have a direct impact on the climate. Temperatures, precipitation and other climatological elements may vary through a complex set of interactions, as consequence of modifications in earth's radiative budget. The life on the Earth is possible due to existence of natural greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The greenhouse gases enable the transmission of short-wave radiation and retain the long-wave radiation, preventing the cooling of the surface of the Earth. However, with the industrial revolution at the end of eighteen’ s century, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere began to increase due to human activity. In order to assess scientific, technical and socio- economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The First IPCC Report from 1990 noted that something happens with climate, the Second Report (1995) was indicated that there was an anthropogenic signal within natural climate variability. The Third IPCC (2001) report emphasized that the warming in last 50 years was probably connected with human actions, while the Fourth IPCC Report (2007) deduced that the warming since the middle of 20th century was very probably caused by increased concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The temperature air measurements, which have been performed in the last fifty years and somewhere longer than last hundred years, show an increase in global average temperature between 0.3 and 0.6 C over the past 80-100 years. During the last decade some years were also the century's hottest years. The area of Croatia is situated in the broad transitional zone where the direction of trends changes. The continental part of Croatia has the seasonal and annual changes similar to those at the eastern edge of the Alps and in the very southern part of the Panonian lowland. The northern part of the Croatian Adriatic coast reveals similar changes to those at the low-lying locations over the western part of the Alps and the southern Europe. But, comparing the sense and intensity of its temperature tendencies to the changes in the central Europe, there are no changes, which could be attributed only to the local anthropogenic influence. The increase in temperature during the 20th century in Croatia was more expressed at the coast than in the mainland. The greatest contribution to the temperature increases gave the changes during the warm half-year at the coast, but in the continental part those of winter. At the beginning of the 21st century the observed positive temperature trend was even increased. Consequently, an increase in warm days and nights and decrease in cold ones has been observed. Annual precipitation totals show a decreasing trend, characteristic of the southeastern Europe and the middle part of the Central Europe. The main contribution to the annual decrease gives the decrease in autumn and spring amounts. The climate change scenarios resulted with the increase in global temperature for 1.4 to 5.8°C during 1990-2100 according to the IPCC-2001. It is 2-10 times greater than the increase in 20th century and probably the greatest during the last 10000 years. According to the IPCC 2007 the increase of mean global temperature in the period 1980-2100 is expected to be 1.8 to 4.0°C. The precipitation scenario results with an increase of precipitation on the global scale, while the results on the regional scale are rather uncertain showing increase and decrease in precipitation 5-20%. Expected temperature increase entail an increase in the number of heatwaves in summer and a decrease in the number of cold spells in winter. It can lead to the increase of mortality caused by heatwaves. At the other hand, a future benefit of climate change may be a reduction in excess winter mortality, particularly that from the cardiovascular disease and asthma. Infectious diseases that have been retreated in 20th century are now re-emerging in many parts of the world. Many of biological organisms and processes linked to the spread of infectious diseases are especially influenced by fluctuations in climate variables, specially temperature, precipitation and humidity. Climate change can therefore be expected to cause shifts in the pattern of infectious diseases. For example, the increased geographic distribution of vector organisms would increase the potential for transmission of many vector borne diseases. Warmer and wetter conditions could lead to an increase of some vector, food or water borne diseases. The expected climate change in Croatia indicates at the increased danger from the malaria in the coastal area, as well as at the greater risk for some food or water borne diseases, like diarrhoea or dysentery. The pathogens that are responsible for the infections spreading directly from person to person are also affected by external factors, primarily temperature and humidity, and therefore also dependent on climate change. The influence of climate change on health can be also indirect, because it can influence at the disposal of drinking water or food production.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Javno zdravstvo i zdravstvena zaštita

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