Naslov
Forecasting Population Changes in Croatia until 2050

Autori
Rozga, Ante

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
2004 JSM Proceedings / - Alexandria (VA) : American Statistical Association, 2004

Skup
ASA Annual Meetings 2004, Toronto, Canada

Mjesto i datum
Toronto, Kanada, 11.08.2004. - 16.08.2004

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
population; mortality; life expactancy; immigration

Sažetak
Croatia has undergone dramatic demographic changes in recent years. Number of population felt from from 4, 540, 641 in 1991 to 4, 422, 248 in 2003. This is partially the consequence of the war, but there has been a downward trend for decades. Number of live births fell from 76, 156 in 1960 to just under 40, 000 in 2003, a drop of 47, 5%, which is among the biggest in Europe. The number of deaths increased from 41, 361 in 1960 to 50, 569 in 2003. Using an optimistic scenario, we would expect 4, 388, 085 people living in Croatia in the year 2050. Infant mortality rate would fall from 11.46 in 1991 to 3.65 in 2050. Life expectancy would rise from from 69.51 to 78.47 years. Deaths per 1, 000 population would remain steady, from 12.82 in 1991 to 13.01 in 2050. This is a projection if some measures are taken to stimulate population growth If these measures are taken but proven unsuccessful, the worst scenario would be 3, 350, 000 people living in Croatia in the year 2050. The number of people over 65 years of age would outnumber those under 15, posing a big problem for Croatian economy. In this scenario there would be lack of work force, and the emigration policy should be employed.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA