Naslov
An Econometric Approach to Modelling Tourist Arrivals in Croatia

Autori
Mihaljević, Maja

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Enterprise in transition : proceedings / Reić, Zlatan - Split : Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, 2003

ISBN
953-6024-49-7

Skup
International Conference on Enterprise in Transition (5 ; 2003)

Mjesto i datum
Tučepi, Hrvatska; Split, Hrvatska, 22.05.2003. - 24.05.2003

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
tourism demand modelling; tourist generating countries; demand elasticity

Sažetak
To learn more about the determinants of tourism demand in Croatia an econometric approach is used i.e. Ordinary Least Squares method is adopted. The dependent variable is the quarterly figures on tourist arrivals to Croatia from nine tourist-generating countries in the period from fourth quarter of 1993 to the second quarter of 1999. Independent variables, as suggested by the research in this area, are the price of tourism in the destination country (Croatia), the level of income in the origin country, expectations and habit persistence, and several dummy variables. If the price of tourism is held constant, the hypothesis that is being tested is whether an increase in the income of the origin country would result in an increase of tourism demand in Croatia, testing that tourism is a normal good. Two models were specified and estimated for each country separately allowing the examination of several important elements - mostly the influence of prices and habits on the number of arrivals. The key research result is that the normal good hypothesis does not hold for German and Austrian tourists. Habits, captured by a one-year-lagged dependent variable, were positive and statistically significant for Slovenia. Although these research results seem to be consistent with the characteristics of tourism demand in Croatia across the last decade and a half, they need to be interpreted with caution.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA