Naslov
Testing the phillips - okun law and growth irregularity : the case of Croatia

Autori
Šergo, Zdravko ; Tomčić, Zdenko

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Fifth International Conference on Enterprise in transition : proceedings / Reić, Zlatan - Split : Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, 2003, 69-110

ISBN
9536024497

Skup
International Conference on Enterprise in transition (5 ; 2003)

Mjesto i datum
Tučepi, Hrvatska; Split, Hrvatska, 22.05.2003. - 24.05.2003

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Phillips curve; Okun's Law; growth; chaotic behaviour; logistic equation

Sažetak
This article investigates the effect of Okun's law on the Republic of Croatia, and check its structural stability. This survey sets the empirical connection between the inflation and the gap between the actual and natural rate of unemployment, and afterwards it will check the application ability of the Okun's law in the Republic of Croatia. The usage of an econometric model is an attempt to define the role of instability of the HRK foreign exchange rate in increasing the gap between the actual and the real rate of unemployment, and the gap between the potential and actual production of the Republic of Croatia. In second part of the paper we on experimental basis tested the hypothesis of deterministic chaos in which we choose the logistic equation as a model for the growth of real GDP in Croatia. The logistic equation, the primary hypothesis was, suits for a genuine explanation of chaotic behaviour of economic activity in transitional terms (e.g. irregular cycle). The economy in times of transition is, as we know, permanent exposed to exogenous shocks, i.e. the stochastically blows which had created the economic cycles whit no-apparent form (Slutkij, 1927 according to Horvat, 2002.). In a chaotic state the economic system can evaluate to any position at all with no apparent order. If is that true for ordinary economy either more is true for any transitional economy, in particularly for war and post-war Croatia's economy. For given empirical parameter values of Phillips-Oknu's law in the case of Croatia from Jan. 1994 - Sept. 2001 c=1, 27, b=4, 08, g=1, 36 and d =0, 2 logistic growth model was quadratic function . Particular shape of given parabola according to our empirical testing implicit talks that the growth is liable to transitional irregularities.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA