Naslov
Analog-based post-processing of NWP in complex terrain: performance evaluation and challenges

Autori
Odak Plenković, Iris ; Vujec, Ivan ; Kožul, Ena

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
Book of Abstracts / - , 2023, 1-1

Skup
36th International Conference on Alpine Meteorology

Mjesto i datum
St. Gallen, Švicarska, 19.06.2023. - 27.06.2023

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Poster

Vrsta recenzije
Recenziran

Ključne riječi
post-processing ; wind ; complex-terrain ; nwp

Sažetak
Analog-based statistical post-processing method (ABM) is proven effective for reducing the overall wind speed NWP error in Croatia, as well as for adequately assessing the forecast uncertainty. After several upgrades were recently made in the operational suite, the optimal NWP configuration to be used as an input to ABM is selected, the set of predictors is weighted and a correction for rare events is applied. These upgraded ABM forecasts are thoroughly evaluated, taking into consideration overall performance and the effect on rare event forecasts, especially in complex terrain prone to high wind speed (e.g., bora wind). Results show that wind direction is the most important predictor, in addition to wind speed. The additional predictor variables, properly weighted, improve results even further, especially in complex terrain. The error in general is larger in complex terrain prone to high-wind speed than in less complex continental areas, and the reduction of error by ABM is thus more pronounced. For the climatologically more common events, the improvement achieved with the ABM over the raw NWP is rather expected. The improvement, however, can also be achieved for rare events in some cases. This is especially the case after applying the statistical correction which enlarges the frequency of such forecasts. Since there are, of course, some limitations of the ABM method that one needs to be careful about, such an example is also shown.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geofizika

POVEZANOST RADA