Naslov
Towards nowcasting in Europe in 2030

Autori
Bojinski, Stephan ; Blaauboer, Dick ; Calbet, Xavier ; de Coning, Estelle ; Debie, Frans ; Montmerle, Thibaut ; Nietosvaara, Vesa ; Norman, Katie ; Bañón Peregrín, Luis ; Schmid, Franziska ; Strelec Mahović, Nataša ; Wapler, Kathrin

Izvornik
Meteorological Applications (1350-4827) 30 (2023), 4; 2124, 27

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
collaboration and co-development ; European Weather Cloud ; high-resolution NWP ; Meteosat Third Generation ; nowcasting ; observing systems ; probabilistic forecasts ; seamless prediction

Sažetak
The increasing impact of severe weather over Europe on lives and weather-sensitive economies can be mitigated by accurate 0–6 h forecasts (nowcasts), supporting a vital‘last line of defence for civil protection and many other applications. Recognizing lack of skill in some complex situations, often at convective and local sub- kilometre scales and associated with rare events, we identify seven recommendations with the aim to improve nowcasting in Europe by the national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) by2030. These recommendations are based on a review of user needs, the state of the observing system, techniques based on observations and high- resolution numerical weather models, as well as tools, data and infrastructure supporting the nowcasting community in Europe. Denser and more accurate observations are necessary particularly in the boundary layer to better characterize the ingredients of severe storms. A key driver for improvement is next-generation European satellite data becoming available as of 2023. Seamless ensemble pre-diction methods to produce enhanced weather forecasts with 0–24 h lead times and probabilistic products require further development. Such products need tobe understood and interpreted by skilled forecasters operating in an evolving forecasting context. We argue that stronger co-development and collaboration between providers and users of nowcasting-relevant data and information are key ingredients for progress. We recommend establishing pan-European now-casting consortia, better exchange of data, common development platforms and common verification approaches as key elements for progressing nowcasting in Europe in this decade

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geofizika, Interdisciplinarne prirodne znanosti

POVEZANOST RADA