Naslov
The integrated analysis of a summer urban flash flood in Croatia

Autori
Horvath, Kristian ; Nimac, Irena ; Cindrić Kalin, Ksenija ; Renko, Tanja ; Vujnović, Tanja

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Skup
9th International Conference on Meteorology and Climatology of the Mediterranean

Mjesto i datum
Genova, Italija, 21.05.2023. - 24.05.2023

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
summer flash flood, analysis, predictions and warnings, meteorology, climatology, hydrology, interdisciplinary

Sažetak
Accurate information about high intensity precipitation of short-duration are of a great importance for issuing warnings to flash floods and for designing urban drainage systems in the wider Mediterranean area, which is especially conducive to such events. In this study, an extreme rainfall event in summer 2020 which caused an urban flood in the city of Zagreb, Croatia, was analyzed from the climatological, synoptic and hydrological aspects including a numerical analysis using the mesoscale ALADIN-HR model. The study showed that the 2-hour extreme precipitation event in summer 2020 over the city center was an exceptional one with the return period higher than 100 years. According to the analysis, the major ingredients for deep moist convection were present before the event. Formation of cut-off low and the presence of an intense positive upper-level potential vorticity anomaly as well as advection of the warm unstable moist air from the Mediterranean were the main synoptic scale processes which promoted heavy precipitation. In addition, the surface convergence line played an important role in localizing and triggering deep convection. Thus, in context of several recent studies of heavy precipitation events performed in the wider Adriatic area within the context of the HyMeX programme, surface convergence line is identified as a common and prominent component of such events. Our analysis suggests that numerical models are, despite remaining uncertainties, capable of guiding forecasters to issue warnings to such events, but also that current extreme precipitation estimates, as well as the capacity of the main sewerage system of Zagreb should be redesigned and adapted to climate change.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geofizika, Interdisciplinarne prirodne znanosti

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