Naslov
Convection in future winter storms over Northern Europe

Autori
Berthou, Ségolène ; J Roberts, Malcolm ; Vannière, Benoît ; Ban, Nikolina ; Belušić, Danijel ; Caillaud, Cécile ; Crocker, Thomas ; de Vries, Hylke ; Dobler, Andreas ; Harris, Dan ; J Kendon, Elizabeth ; Landgren, Oskar ; Manning, Colin

Izvornik
Environmental Research Letters (1748-9326) 17 (2022), 11; 114055, 11

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
convection-permitting models ; precipitation ; winter storms ; extratropical cyclones ; climate change ; convection

Sažetak
Precipitation within extratropical cyclones is very likely to increase towards the end of the century in a business-as-usual scenario. We investigate hourly precipitation changes in end- of-century winter storms with the first km-scale model ensemble covering northwest Europe and the Baltic region. This is an ensemble that explicitly represents convection (convection permitting models (CPMs)). Models agree that future winter storms will bring 10%–50% more precipitation, with the same level of light precipitation but more moderate and heavy precipitation, together with less frequent frozen precipitation. The warm sector precipitation rates will get closer (up to similar) to those in present-day autumn storms, along with higher convective available potential energy and convective inhibition, suggesting more convection embedded in storms. To the first order, mean hourly precipitation changes in winter storms are driven by temperature increase (with little relative humidity changes) and storm dynamical intensity (more uncertain), both captured by regional climate models (RCMs). The CPMs agree with this, and in addition, most CPMs show more increase in intense precipitation in the warm sector of storms compared to their parent RCM.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geofizika

POVEZANOST RADA