Naslov
Refined halo CME forecast

Autori
E. Yordanova, M. Dumbović, M. Temmer, C. Scolini, E. Paouris, A.L.E. Werner and A. P. Dimmock

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Skup
European Space Weather Week 2022

Mjesto i datum
Zagreb, Hrvatska, 24.10.2022. - 28.10.2022

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Sun, Heliosphere, coronal mass ejection, space weather

Sažetak
Earth-directed halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can drive intense geomagnetic storms. The forecast of their arrival time at L1 is prone to large errors, because 1) the estimation of halo CMEs’ kinematics is difficult due to projection effects in plane-of-sky, and 2) their propagation can be greatly affected by the state of the plasma in the lower corona and the one of the ambient solar wind in which the CMEs evolves on-route to Earth. In this study, we have used a unified set of twelve halo CMEs from solar cycle 24 with similar characteristics: large initial speeds (> 1000 km/s) and wide half- angles ; source region in the central area of the solar disk ; and high geoeffectivity. We have modeled the propagation of the CMEs using four different models – Drag-Based Model (DBM), Effective Acceleration Model (EAM), EUropean Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) and ENLIL. The same CME parameters have been used in all models and the resulting predictions of the time of arrival and impact speed have been compared with the observations at L1. The performance assessment of the different models has been based on the application of the same metrics. Furthermore, we have applied a refined input to the models taking into account the properties of the background solar wind which lead to improved forecast in both CME arrival time and impact speed.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Fizika

POVEZANOST RADA