Naslov
Prediction of solar cycle amplitude with the maximal growth rate in ascending phase

Autori
Jain, Shantanu ; Podladchikova, Tatiana ; Veronig, Astrid ; Sutyrina, Olga ; Dumbovic, Mateja ; Clette, Fr ; Pötzi, Werner

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Skup
44th COSPAR Scientific Assembly

Mjesto i datum
Atena, Grcka, 16.07.2022. - 24.07.2022

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Sun, sunspots, solar cycle

Sažetak
Forecasting the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle is highly important for many space weather applications. We demonstrate a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a cycle and the subsequent cycle peak on the basis of four data sets of solar activity indices: total sunspot numbers, hemispheric sunspot numbers from the new catalogue from 1874 onwards (Veronig et al. 2021, http://cdsarc.u- strasbg.fr/viz-bin/cat/J/A+A/652/A56) total and hemispheric sunspot areas. In all cases, a linear regression based on the maximal growth rate precursor shows a significant correlation. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the sum of maximal growth rate indicators determined separately for the North and the South hemispheric sunspot numbers provides more accurate forecast than that using total sunspot numbers: The rms error of predictions is smaller by 27%, the correlation coefficient r is higher by 11% on average reaching values in the range r = 0.8-0.9 depending of the smoothing window of the monthly mean data. The superior performance is also confirmed with the hemispheric sunspot areas with respect to total sunspot areas. These results provide a strong foundation for supporting regular monitoring, recording, and predictions of solar activity with the hemispheric sunspot data, which capture the asymmetric behavior of the solar activity and solar magnetic field.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Fizika

POVEZANOST RADA