Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 1245943
Modeling and Forecasting of Rice Prices in India during the COVID-19 Lockdown Using Machine Learning Approaches
Modeling and Forecasting of Rice Prices in India during the COVID-19 Lockdown Using Machine Learning Approaches // Agronomy, 12 (2022), 2133, 13 doi:10.3390/agronomy12092133 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)
CROSBI ID: 1245943 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca
Naslov
Modeling and Forecasting of Rice Prices in India
during the COVID-19 Lockdown Using Machine
Learning Approaches
Autori
Rathod, Santosha ; Chitikela, Gayatri ; Bandumula, Nirmala ; Ondrasek, Gabrijel ; Ravichandran, Sundaram ; Sundaram, Meenakshi
Izvornik
Agronomy (2073-4395) 12
(2022);
2133, 13
Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni
Ključne riječi
COVID-19 ; lockdown ; rice ; price ; ARIMA ; ANN ; ELM ; time series intervention analysis
Sažetak
Via national lockdowns, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the production and distribution of foodstuffs worldwide, including rice (Oryza sativa L.) production, affecting the prices in India’s agroecosystems and markets. The present study was performed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 national lockdown on rice prices in India, and to develop statistical machine learning models to forecast price changes under similar crisis scenarios. To estimate the rice prices under COVID-19, the general time series models, such as the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the artificial neural network (ANN) model, and the extreme learning machine (ELM) model, were applied. The results obtained using the ARIMA intervention model revealed that during the COVID-19 lockdown in India, rice prices increased by INR 0.92/kg. In addition, the ELM intervention model was faster, with less computation time, and provided better results vs other models because it detects the nonlinear pattern in time series data, along with the intervention variable, which was considered an exogenous variable. The use of forecasting models can be a useful tool in supporting decision makers, especially under unpredictable crises. The study results are of great importance for the national agri-food sector, as they can bolster authorities and policymakers in planning and designing more sustainable interventions in the food market during (inter)national crisis situations.
Izvorni jezik
Engleski
Znanstvena područja
Poljoprivreda (agronomija)
