Naslov
The Forecasting of Croatian Tourism Demand

Autori
Pavlić, Ivana ; Golemac, Zrinka

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
11th International Conference on Socıal Research and Behavioral Sciences - Proceeding Book / Arvas, Abdulselam - Antalya : The University of Georgia (Georgia) - Journal of Social Research and Behavioral Sciences, 2022, 26-42

ISBN
978-605-71623-0-4

Skup
11th International Conference on Socıal Research and Behavioral Sciences (SADAB 2022)

Mjesto i datum
Antalya, Turska, 10.06.2022. - 12.06.2022

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
tourism demand ; forecasting ; model ; Croatia

Sažetak
Tourism plays an important role in the economic development of many countries around the world. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), the direct, indirect and induced share of tourism in GDP in the Republic of Croatia was 25% in 2018. Also, the share of employees in tourism was 25% and the share of tourism in total exports was 38.6%. Considering this fact, the need for tourism demand forecasting has been recognised for years by both researchers and policy makers. The main objective of this work is to determine a model that best fits the tourism demand in the Republic of Croatia and to forecast the number of tourist arrivals in the Republic of Croatia for the next five years. The maximum likelihood method was applied to estimate the parameters and forecast the number of tourists in the future. The research results indicate that there is a strong seasonal influence on the overall tourism demand in the Republic of Croatia. This paper provides practical implications for policy makers.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA