Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 1236403
FORECASTING TOURISM DEMAND IN CROATIA USING BOX AND JENKINS METHODOLOGY
FORECASTING TOURISM DEMAND IN CROATIA USING BOX AND JENKINS METHODOLOGY // Tourism in South East Europe / Zadel, Z ; Jurdana, DS (ur.).
Opatija: Univ Rijeka, Fac Tourism & Hospital Management, 2019. str. 263-273 (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni)
CROSBI ID: 1236403 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca
Naslov
FORECASTING TOURISM DEMAND IN CROATIA USING BOX AND
JENKINS METHODOLOGY
Autori
Đukec, Damira
Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni
Izvornik
Tourism in South East Europe
/ Zadel, Z ; Jurdana, DS - Opatija : Univ Rijeka, Fac Tourism & Hospital Management, 2019, 263-273
Skup
5th International Conference Tourism in Southern and Eastern Europe: Creating Innovative Tourism Experiences: The Way to Extend the Tourist Season (ToSEE 2019)
Mjesto i datum
Opatija, Hrvatska, 16.05.2019. - 18.05.2019
Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje
Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija
Ključne riječi
Tourism demandCroatiaforecastingBox and JenkinsARIMA
Sažetak
Tourism is a significant sector in Croatian economy, generating income and employment. Recent data show that contribution of tourism to GDP is almost 20%. Planning and forecasting is crucial for further development. Demand forecasting models are therefore essential input in developing a competitive tourism industry which enables sustainable growth. Tourism demand forecasting methods can be divided in qualitative and quantitative methods. Econometric models differ from time series in identifying the casual relationships between variables. Time series models mostly rely on Box and Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) or seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) methodology. For the purpose of this paper we will focus on quantitative methods. Quantitative methods used for forecasting purposes are either time series models or econometric studies. In this paper tourism demand for Croatia has been modelled using Box and Jenkins seasonal ARIMA methodology. The Box-Jenkins methodology refers to a set of procedures for identifying and estimating time series models within the class of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The data for tourist arrivals showed clear patterns of seasonality and an upward trend. After differentiation and seasonal adjustment, a model selection and diagnostic checking followed. The model selected was seasonal ARIMA (2, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12. The model fits the observed data well and shows no autocorrelation of the residuals.
Izvorni jezik
Engleski
Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija
