Naslov
Future precipitation changes over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps

Autori
Ivušić, Sarah ; Güttler, Ivan ; Horvath, Kristian

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
6th Faculty of Science PhD Student Symposium: book of abstracts / - , 2022, 244-245

Skup
6th Faculty of Science PhD Student Symposium

Mjesto i datum
Zagreb, Hrvatska, 23-24.04.2022

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Poster

Vrsta recenzije
Domaća recenzija

Ključne riječi
climate change ; regional climate model ; precipitation ; Dinaric Alps

Sažetak
Regional climate models (RCMs) are a tool for comprehensive climate analysis at regional scales aiming to represent regional processes and forcings (complex topography, land cover, rivers, coastal areas, etc.) at a fine scale. RCMs are extensively used for research purposes, especially for investigations of future climate changes. The study aims to estimate the future climate change of precipitation over the topographically complex coastal-mountainous region of the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps, which is particularly vulnerable to climate change. We use an unprecedented ensemble of ~140 RCM simulations of future climate from the EURO-CORDEX initiative to cover all sources of uncertainty and as many possible future conditions. The ensemble includes simulations at a spatial resolution of ~12.5 km for three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which assume different concentration pathways by the end of the century. We examine the climate change signal for several future thirty- year periods compared to the historical period. The results show changes in total precipitation, with a considerable reduction in summer and a south-north gradient in winter (an increase in northern parts of the region and a reduction in southern parts). By the end of the century, the number of rainy days will significantly decrease, however, the projections show a precipitation intensity increase. The latter will lead to an intensification in extreme precipitation events in all seasons, which pose a risk of severe flash floods, landslides, traffic interruptions, water and electricity supply problems and even human casualties.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geofizika

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