Pretražite po imenu i prezimenu autora, mentora, urednika, prevoditelja

Napredna pretraga

Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 1217932

Analog‐based post‐processing of the ALADIN‐LAEF ensemble predictions in complex terrain


Odak Plenković, Iris; Schicker, Irene; Dabernig, Markus; Horvath, Kristian; Keresturi, Endi
Analog‐based post‐processing of the ALADIN‐LAEF ensemble predictions in complex terrain // Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (2020), 729; 1842-1860 doi:10.1002/qj.3769 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)


CROSBI ID: 1217932 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca

Naslov
Analog‐based post‐processing of the ALADIN‐LAEF ensemble predictions in complex terrain

Autori
Odak Plenković, Iris ; Schicker, Irene ; Dabernig, Markus ; Horvath, Kristian ; Keresturi, Endi

Izvornik
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (0035-9009) 146 (2020), 729; 1842-1860

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
analogapproach, complexterrain, ensemblecalibration, ensemblemodeloutputstatistics, ensembleprediction, mesoscale model, statistical post-processing, wind ensemble forecast

Sažetak
The main goal of this study is to assess the performance of the analog-based post-processing method applied to the Austrian ALADIN-LAEF wind speed ensemble predictions through a set of sensitivity experiments. Evaluation of several analog-based configurations using various meteorological variables as predictors is therefore conducted. The results of those experiments are compared to the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) baseline model. The hypothesis further investigated is that using summarized measures, such as mean and standard deviation of an ensemble for several meteorological variables, is comparable to the analog post-processing using all of the ensemble members. Results show that both analog-based and EMOS experiments considerably improve the raw model forecast. Even though the improvement over raw model forecast is evident, large differences among nearby stations are noticed in the highly complex terrain. The processes at lower stations seem to be better represented by the raw model, which leads to a better input forecast to the post-processing and a better overall result than for the mountain stations. The analog-based method is overall comparable to or even outperforms the EMOS. Assessing the post-processing performance for high wind speeds shows that the analog experiments can improve the raw forecast, exhibiting significantly higher skill than the EMOS. The difference among all analog experiments is less pronounced, especially the experiment using all of the raw model ensemble members and the one using summarized measures. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the usage of summarized ensemble measures is an optimal way to improve the forecast skill, compared to the other analog-based experiments and the EMOS model. Therefore, it is suggested that it is not necessary to increase the computational costs by using the full input spectrum of a raw probabilistic model, that is, all ALADIN-LAEF members as predictors, as the summarized metric suffices.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geofizika



POVEZANOST RADA


Ustanove:
Državni hidrometeorološki zavod

Poveznice na cjeloviti tekst rada:

doi rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Citiraj ovu publikaciju:

Odak Plenković, Iris; Schicker, Irene; Dabernig, Markus; Horvath, Kristian; Keresturi, Endi
Analog‐based post‐processing of the ALADIN‐LAEF ensemble predictions in complex terrain // Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (2020), 729; 1842-1860 doi:10.1002/qj.3769 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)
Odak Plenković, I., Schicker, I., Dabernig, M., Horvath, K. & Keresturi, E. (2020) Analog‐based post‐processing of the ALADIN‐LAEF ensemble predictions in complex terrain. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (729), 1842-1860 doi:10.1002/qj.3769.
@article{article, author = {Odak Plenkovi\'{c}, Iris and Schicker, Irene and Dabernig, Markus and Horvath, Kristian and Keresturi, Endi}, year = {2020}, pages = {1842-1860}, DOI = {10.1002/qj.3769}, keywords = {analogapproach, complexterrain, ensemblecalibration, ensemblemodeloutputstatistics, ensembleprediction, mesoscale model, statistical post-processing, wind ensemble forecast}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, doi = {10.1002/qj.3769}, volume = {146}, number = {729}, issn = {0035-9009}, title = {Analog‐based post‐processing of the ALADIN‐LAEF ensemble predictions in complex terrain}, keyword = {analogapproach, complexterrain, ensemblecalibration, ensemblemodeloutputstatistics, ensembleprediction, mesoscale model, statistical post-processing, wind ensemble forecast} }
@article{article, author = {Odak Plenkovi\'{c}, Iris and Schicker, Irene and Dabernig, Markus and Horvath, Kristian and Keresturi, Endi}, year = {2020}, pages = {1842-1860}, DOI = {10.1002/qj.3769}, keywords = {analogapproach, complexterrain, ensemblecalibration, ensemblemodeloutputstatistics, ensembleprediction, mesoscale model, statistical post-processing, wind ensemble forecast}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, doi = {10.1002/qj.3769}, volume = {146}, number = {729}, issn = {0035-9009}, title = {Analog‐based post‐processing of the ALADIN‐LAEF ensemble predictions in complex terrain}, keyword = {analogapproach, complexterrain, ensemblecalibration, ensemblemodeloutputstatistics, ensembleprediction, mesoscale model, statistical post-processing, wind ensemble forecast} }

Časopis indeksira:


  • Current Contents Connect (CCC)
  • Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
    • Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXP)
    • SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
  • Scopus


Citati:





    Contrast
    Increase Font
    Decrease Font
    Dyslexic Font