Naslov
Comparative Analysis of Linear Regression and Soft Computing Methods for Estimating Highways Construction Time and Cost in the Republic of Croatia

Autori
Car-Pušić, Diana ; Tijanić Štrok, Ksenija ; Petruseva, Silvana ; Zileska-Pancovska, Valentina

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
OTMC 2022 Conference Proceedings / Završki, Ivica ; Cerić, Anita ; Vukomanović, Mladen ; Huemann, Martina ; Vlahov Golomejić, Rebeka Danijela ; Sigmund, Zvonko - Zagreb : Hrvatska Udruga za Organizaciju Građenja ; Fakultet strojarstva i brodogradnje Sveučilišta u Zagrebu; Hrvatska udruga za upravljanje projektima (HUUP), 2022, 477-486

ISBN
978-953-7686-10-9

Skup
15th International Conference Organization, Technology; 6th International Project Management Association SENET Conference

Mjesto i datum
Cavtat, Hrvatska, 21.09.2022. - 24.09.2022

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
roads ; highways ; time ; cost ; linear regression ; neural networks ; support vector machine

Sažetak
Construction of road structures, including highways, on the Republic of Croatia territory often suffers from the planned time and cost deviations, whereby overruns are particularly unacceptable. In terms of costs, overestimated costs can also cause problems because it is more demanding to ensure more investment money. Therefore, the main research goal is to investigate relations between realized and contracted time, also realized and contracted costs of highway construction by applying predictive modelling – linear regression and some soft computing methods. In addition, the goal is to investigate the possibility of establishing the appropriate model for estimating the duration and cost of similar projects by using simple linear regression analysis, neural networks (NNs) and support vector machine (SVM), using the software DTREG. By comparing the accuracy of the obtained models using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) as standard estimators of the model accuracy, the optimal models have been selected, and the possibility and conditions of their application in practice have been analyzed. Furthermore, the differences, advantages, and disadvantages in applying linear regression and soft computing methods in solving this and similar engineering problems were explored, primarily in time and cost planning.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Građevinarstvo, Projektni menadžment

POVEZANOST RADA