Naslov
How Well Can Experts Predict Farmers’ Risk Preferences?

Autori
Schaak, Henning ; Rommel, Jens ; Sagebiel, Julian ; Barreiro-Hurlé, Jesus ; Bougherara, Douadia ; Cemablo, Luigi ; Cerjak, Marija ; Čop, Tajana ; Czajkowski, Mikołaj ; Espinosa-Goded, María ; Höhler, Julia ; Lagerkvist, Carl-Johan ; Rodriguez- Entrena, Macario ; Tensi, Annika ; Thoyer, Sophie ; Tomić Maksan, Marina ; Vecchio, Riccardo ; Zagórska, Katarzyna

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
Book of Abstracts of the 183rd EAAE seminar – Experimental and Behavioural Economics Research in Agri-Food and the Environment / Cerjak, Marija - Zagreb : Croatian Society of Agricultural Economists, 2022, 43-43

ISBN
978-953-48919-3-3

Skup
183rd EAAE seminar Experimental and Behavioural Economics Research in Agri-Food and the Environment

Mjesto i datum
Zagreb, Hrvatska, 08.09.2022. - 09.09.2022

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Risk attitudes ; Expert predictions ; Multiple prices lists ; Meta-science ; Experimental economics

Sažetak
Risk is ubiquitous in agriculture and a core interest among agricultural economists. While farmers’ risk preferences are well studied, there is limited knowledge on the perspectives of stakeholders on farmers’ risk preferences. We address this gap by eliciting predictions from 561 experts, which allows us to understand how well these experts understand farmers’ risk preferences. First, we compare the accuracy of predictions by distinguishing different groups of experts. Second, we investigate whether the risk preferences of farmers from different production systems differ in terms of predictability for the experts. Third, we examine the effectiveness of expert predictions by randomly assigning experts to different incentives schemes. We find that an international group of researchers in experimental economics provide the most accurate predictions if compared to farm advisors and other experts from different countries as well as students of agriculture. Differences in predictions across the eight samples of farmers from different production systems are small. Incentivizing predictions by either a tournament scheme (the best prediction receives a reward) or high accuracy (randomly selected participants are paid depending on the quality of their prediction) do not strongly affect accuracy, but tournament schemes show somewhat smaller standard deviations.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Poljoprivreda (agronomija), Ekonomija

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