Naslov
Demographic Resources and Potentials of the Middle EastMediterranean Area and National Security? What Can We Expect in the Future?

Autori
Komušanac, Monika

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
14th Annual International Conference on Mediterranean Studies / - , 2021, 20-21

Skup
14th Annual International Conference on Mediterranean Studies

Mjesto i datum
Atena, Grčka, 29.03.2021. - 01.04.2021

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Podatak o recenziji nije dostupan

Ključne riječi
national security, migration, Europe, demographics, Middle East-Mediterranean Area
(national security, migration, Europe, demographics, Middle East-Mediterranean Are)

Sažetak
The great migration crisis of 2015 and the force of displacement of about 2.5 million inhabitants towards Europe changed the classic notion of international migration and European and national security as security primarily of borders and border areas. The problem of dealing with a large influx of population took place on several levels, primarily the humanitarian, refugee, exile, and only then according to the demographic, especially immigration component. The events of 2015 showed Europe‘s unpreparedness for a major migration wave and the importance of immigration selective policies in preserving national identity. The analysis of the total population movement in the Middle EastMediterranean area since 2010 shows significant demographic resources and potentials expressed by standard analytical indicators of natural and total population movement on the basis of which it was necessary to identify, observe and predict the launch of large demographic potential towards Europe. The demographic trends in the area from 2010 until today, and the UN projections until 2100, confirm the continuation of the announced demographic trends, with more or less pronounced intensity. Africa‘s population will grow by 1.2 billion by the middle of the century, and by almost 3 billion by the end of the century, showing the greatest demographic potential, according to which, 40% of the world‘s population will live in 2100. At the same time, the demographic potential of Asia will decrease from the middle of the century in favor of the African population, and in the regional context it is especially important to point out that by the end of the century the demographic potential of North Africa and West Asia is expected to increase to 900 million or almost 9% of the world‘s population in 2100. Current demographic pressure with around 525 million inhabitants in the wider Middle East Mediterranean area will continue to increase, with the largest absolute increases expected in Egypt (122 million), Sudan (98 million), Iraq (68 million), Algeria (26 million), Yemen (23 million), Syria (18 million) and Israel (9 million) which together will account for 40% of the region‘s growth by the end of the century. In line with stated and the socio- political instability of this region, migration waves to Europe will long be a potential threat to a demographically aging and demographically poor Europe, which, by the end of the century expects a demographic loss of 118 million inhabitants or 18% of today‘s population. Two separate, demographically different areas, in line with the potential of the Middle East Mediterranean population and the lack of potential of the European domicile population, could greatly change the European demographic picture and structures by the end of the century

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

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