Naslov
Demographic Breakdown of Croatia and the Impact of the COVID 19 Pandemic

Autori
Komušanac, Monika

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
8th Annual International Conference on Demography and Population Studies / - , 2021, 24-25

Skup
8th Annual International Conference on Demography and Population Studies

Mjesto i datum
Atena, Grčka, 14.06.2021. - 17.06.2021

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Nije recenziran

Ključne riječi
demographic breakdown, COVID 19, depopulation, specific mortality.
(demographic breakdown, COVID 19, depopulation, specific mortality)

Sažetak
Demographic breakdown is a common term by which Croatian demographers try to point out the seriousness and subtlety of demographic issues and uncertainty regarding the survival of the Croatian population. The middle version of the UN estimate predicts a decline in the population of Croatia by 750, 000 people by the middle of the century, or below 3.4 million, and by the end of the century to an incredible 2.1 million! The specific demographic development of Croatia is a consequence of long-term emigration and emigrant tradition and the action of destructive factors, primarily the European wars in the 20th century and the Greater Serbia aggression in the early 1990s. All of them contributed to the decline in fertility and the occurrence of natural decline and overall depopulation in 1991. Declining birth rates in Croatia have been present since 1979, and in 40 years the number of births has decreased by 45% and today amounts to only 36, 000 children! With the increase in mortality in the same period and the stagnation of mortality to an average of 52, 000 deaths in the last 10 years, in 2020 the largest negative natural change was recorded. Unfavorable trends in natural movement affected the deterioration of the age structure and accelerated aging of the population, so according to estimates by the Central Bureau of Statistics for 2019, the share of the population over 60 was 25.42%, and the share of the population under 19 was only 19.33 %. Since Croatia's accession to the European Union in 2013 until 2019, a total of 230, 000 people emigrated, and it is assumed that this number is much higher given the data of immigration countries and the fact that there is no legal obligation to register abroad. The COVID- 19 pandemic has only intensified the negative demographic trends in Croatia that have been present for about thirty years. The pandemic in Croatia primarily affected the increase in mortality and continued decline in fertility and natural population decline, so in 2020, according to provisional data, the highest mortality and increase in average annual deaths by about 4, 500 people than in 2018 and 2019, the lowest birth rate that fell below 36, 000 births and the largest natural population decline of about -20, 000 people occured! Although emigration during the pandemic was slowed down due to certain restrictions on freedom of movement, the end of the pandemic is expected to continue emigration and return to pre- pandemic emigration trends and reduce the overall demographic potential of the domicile population. In addition to the analysis of quantitative demographic indicators, the factors that influenced the general negative demographic picture of Croatia will be explained, as well as the shortcomings of the system of population measures implemented at the state level.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

POVEZANOST RADA