Naslov
An analysis of causal relation between daily commercial flights intensity and daily Covid-19 infections, in Croatia, during the 4th wave of Covid-19 epidemics

Autori
Bračević, Rija ; Jošanov Vrgović, Ivana ; Kralj, Klaudija ; Popović, Irena ; Filjar, Renato

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Zbornik radova 5. simpozija Veleučilišta Hrvatsko zagorje Krapina Susreti 2022 / Hercigonja-Szekeres, Mira ; Sikirica, Nenad - Krapina : Veleučilište Hrvatsko zagorje Krapina ; Medicinska naklada, 2022, 91-96

ISBN
978-953-57602-5-2

Skup
5. simpozij Veleučilišta Hrvatsko zagorje Krapina Susreti

Mjesto i datum
Krapina, Hrvatska, 22.04.2022. - 23.04.2022

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Domaća recenzija

Ključne riječi
causal inference ; daily commercial flights ; daily Covid-19 infections ; Covid-19 ; Croatia ; Granger causality

Sažetak
Effects of the Covid-19 pandemics have started to be identified in various socio-economic and technical segments and disciplines. Here a research and its results are presented in analysis of causality between two statistical variables: (1) daily number of new Covid-19 cases in Croatia, and (2) daily number of flights originated from or destined to Croatian airports, both during the period of the 4th wave of Covid-19 epidemics in Croatia (Quarter Four in 2021). Research methodology is devised that utilises Granger causality statistical test. The daily new Covid-19 case is identified as the target (effect) variable, of the daily number of flights in Croatia, as the predictor (cause) variable. Reversal of roles is found to have no causality. Additionally, it is found that cause will affect the target variable 1 – 4 days after the cause activation. Research results benefit a wide range of disciplines: from epidemiology, to flight planning and logistics.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Matematika, Računarstvo, Ekonomija, Informacijske i komunikacijske znanosti

POVEZANOST RADA