Naslov
Recent advances in forecasting the arrival time and speed of coronal mass ejections

Autori
Dumbovic, M.

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Skup
IEEE WISEE 2021 Space Weather Workshop

Mjesto i datum
Online, 12.10.2021. - 14.10.2021

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Pozvano predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) ; model validation ; metrics ; metadata ; forecasting ; Astrophysics - Solar and Stellar Astrophysics ; Physics - Space Physics

Sažetak
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most violent eruptions in the solar system, driven by the magnetic energy. As these magnetic structures propagate through solar wind in the interplanetary space they interact with the ambient plasma and often drive interplanetary shocks ahead. CMEs and their associated interplanetary shocks are the most prominent drivers of space weather in the heliosphere. They may cause radiation hazards as they are directly related to the release of energetic solar particles and are known to cause largest geomagnetic storms as well as magnetospheric storms on other planets. Consequently, CMEs and shocks may directly or indirectly cause various radiation and induced-current failures in the modern human technology, especially space-born. Thus, forecasting the arrival time and speed of CMEs and their associated shocks is one of the key aspects of space weather research. There is a diversity of CME models available today, some focusing on the propagation of the CME magnetic structure itself, whereas other focus on the propagation of the shock. Either way, the models aim to forecast the arrival time and speed of the incoming disturbance. The models range from empirical and simple analytical models to machine-learning and numerical 3D magnetohydrodynamical models. However, regardless of the model, forecasting CME arrival time has proven to be exceedingly challenging. This is related to the fact that all models use CME input as well as input of characteristics of the background solar wind. One of the major setbacks is the uncertainty of the CME observational input, which is still substantial despite state-of-the-art remote observational capacities such as high- resolution EUV imagers and stereoscopic observations. Another major setback is the uncertainty in the CME propagation itself, due to e.g. unrealistic background solar wind and/or complex interactions. Another important aspect of the forecast of the CME arrival time and speed is how to track its progress. It is not easy to quantify and track progress in models over time, since different modelers often use different validation samples and metrics and validation studies including several different models are quite scarce. Therefore, over the past several years there have been efforts towards defining community-agreed metrics and validation methods, as well as to asses and incorporate uncertainty of the observational input into the models.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Fizika

POVEZANOST RADA