Naslov
Prediction of 11-year solar cycle strength with Hemispheric Sunspot Numbers

Autori
Shantanu Jain ; Tatiana Podladchikova ; Astrid M. Veronig ; Olga Sutyrina ; Mateja Dumbovic ; Frédéric Clette ; Werner Pötzi

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Skup
XVIIth Hvar Astrophysical Colloquium

Mjesto i datum
Online, 20.09.2021. - 24.09.2021

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
solar cycle, sunspot number

Sažetak
The 11-Year solar cycle is driven by the sun's magnetic field. The sunspot number is the most-common long term index of solar activity and prediction of its amplitude can help to understand the physics of the solar dynamo and the effects of space weather. Previous studies have shown that analysing the solar activity of the two hemispheres separately instead of the full suncan provide more detailed information on the activity evolution. However, the existing Hemispheric Sunspot Number data series (1945 onwards) is too short for the purpose of solar cycle predictions. Based on a newly created hemispheric sunspot number catalogue for the time range 1874-2020 (Veronig et al. 2021) that is compatible with the International Sunspot Number from World Data Center SILSO, we investigate the evolution of the solar cycle for the two hemispheres, and demonstrate that empirical solar cycle prediction methods can be enhanced by investigating the solar cycle dynamics in terms of the hemispheric sunspot numbers. We develop a method for predictingthe solar cycle amplitude based on the peak growth rate in the ascending phase of the cycle using the Hemispheric Sunspot numbers for cycles 12-24. We show that using this technique, the sum of the predictions (North+South) of the two hemisphere give better estimates of the cycle amplitude than the Total Sunspot Numbers. In addition, we estimate the cycle peaks with 1st order and 3rd order regressions and find that the hemispheric sunspot numbers provide better estimates of cycle peak than total sunspot numbers for both the cases with the obtained correlations lying in the range r =0.8 to 0.9 depending on the applied smoothing window

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Fizika

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