Naslov
Performance of the Adriatic early warning system during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020: an assessment using energy banners

Autori
Tojčić, Iva ; Denamiel, Cléa ; Vilibić, Ivica

Izvornik
Natural hazards and earth system sciences (1561-8633) 21 (2021), 8; 2427-2446

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
meteotsunamis ; early warning systems ; Adriatic Sea

Sažetak
This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations, a high- resolution atmosphere–ocean modelling suite, and a stochastic surrogate model. The CMeEWS, which is not operational due to a lack of numerical resources, is used retroactively to reproduce the multiple events observed in the eastern Adriatic between 11 and 19 May 2020. The performances of the CMeEWS deterministic models are then assessed with an innovative method using energy banners based on temporal and spatial spectral analysis of the high-pass-filtered air pressure and sea level fields. It is found that deterministic simulations largely fail to forecast these extreme events at endangered locations along the Croatian coast, mostly due to a systematic northwestward shift of the atmospheric disturbances. Additionally, the use of combined ocean and atmospheric model results, instead of atmospheric model results only, is not found to improve the selection of the transects used to extract the atmospheric parameters feeding the stochastic meteotsunami surrogate model. Finally, in operational mode, the stochastic surrogate model would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events but also set off some false alarms. Due to the uncertainties associated with operational modelling of meteotsunamigenic disturbances, the stochastic approach has thus proven to overcome the failures of the deterministic forecasts and should be further developed.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geofizika

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