Naslov
Deterministical model for calculating probability of floods of small streams based on a geological-hydrological categories, case study Kašina stream on the Medvednica Mt., Croatia

Autori
Sudar, Vedran ; Malvić, Tomislav

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, neobjavljeni rad, znanstveni

Skup
Dan doktoranada Rudarsko-geološko-naftnoga fakulteta Sveučilišta u Zagrebu

Mjesto i datum
Zagreb, Hrvatska, 06.05.2021

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Poster

Vrsta recenzije
Podatak o recenziji nije dostupan

Ključne riječi
flood ; geological categories ; probability ; Medvednica Mt. ; Croatia

Sažetak
Here is defined deterministical method for calculation of high discharge event, named as Probability Of Success (abbr. POS). The method previously developed for petroleum subsurface systems, here is modified for surface hydrological system with purpose of flood prediction. The developed model was tested with the data on precipitation during the urban flood in Zagreb that occurred on the night of 24 to 25 July 2020. Urban flood event that occurred in Zagreb was not recorded at the Kašina hydrological station. The presented probability method yielded the results of 1.76% that such event could happened on the station. Comparison of real event and predicted probability supported the adequacy and applicability of method with high reliability. Presented probability model can be easily applied, with small modification, for entire Northern Croatia in prediction of flooding events for small basins.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija, Interdisciplinarne prirodne znanosti, Interdisciplinarne tehničke znanosti

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