Naslov
Evaluation of CME arrival prediction using ensemble modeling based on heliospheric imaging

Autori
Tanja Amerstorfer ; Juergen Hinterreiter ; Martin A. Reiss ; Christian Moestl ; Jackie A. Davies ; Rachel L. Bailey ; Andreas J. Weiss ; Mateja Dumbovic ; Maike Bauer ; Ute V. Amerstorfer ; Richard A. Harrison

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Skup
European Space Weather Symposium

Mjesto i datum
Online, 02.11.2020. - 06.11.2020

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
coronal mass ejections, space weather
(coronal mass ejections, space weather forecast)

Sažetak
We evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide-angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI), which observe the evolution and propagation of CMEs through the inner heliosphere. By exploiting this capability we aim to improve today's CME arrival time and speed predictions. The drag-based ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) assumes an elliptical CME frontal shape within the ecliptic plane. ELEvoHI is used to perform ensemble simulations by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary conditions that are consistent with the observations made by HI. In this work, we evaluate different set-ups of the model by performing hindcasts for 15 well-defined isolated CMEs that occurred when STEREO was near L4/5, between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2011. In this way, we find a mean absolute error of between 6.2+/-7.9 h and 9.9+/-13 h depending on the model set-up used. ELEvoHI is specified for using data from future space weather missions carrying HIs located at L5 and/or L1. It can also be used with near real-time STEREO-A HI beacon data to provide CME arrival predictions during the next ~7 years when STEREO-A is observing the Sun-Earth space.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Fizika

POVEZANOST RADA