Naslov
Modeling the Epidemic Outbreak and Dynamics of COVID-19 in Croatia

Autori
Lojić Kapetanović, Ante ; Poljak, Dragan

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Health track, SpliTech 2020 / - , 2020, 1-5

Skup
5th International Conference on Smart and Sustainable Technologies 2020

Mjesto i datum
Bol, Hrvatska, 23.09.2020. - 26.09.2020

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
SARS-CoV-2 ; COVID-19 ; epidemic modeling ; compartmental epidemiology models

Sažetak
The paper deals with a modeling of the ongoing epidemic caused by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the closed territory of Republic of Croatia. Using official public information on the number of confirmed infected, recovered and deceased individuals, the modified SEIR compartmental model is developed to describe the underlying dynamics of the epidemic. Fitted modified SEIR model provides the prediction of the disease progression in near future, considering strict control interventions by means of social distancing and quarantine for infected and at-risk individuals introduced at the beginning of COVID-19 spread on February, 25 th by Croatian Ministry of Health. Assuming the accuracy of provided data and satisfactory representativeness of the model used, basic reproduction number is derived. Obtained results portray potential positive developments and justify the stringent precautionary measures introduced by the Ministry of Health.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Interdisciplinarne biotehničke znanosti

POVEZANOST RADA