Naslov
Will the wind associated with the Adriatic storm surges change in future climate?

Autori
Međugorac, Iva ; Pasarić, Miroslava ; Güttler, Ivan

Izvornik
Theoretical and applied climatology (0177-798X) 143 (2020), 1; 1-18

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
Adriatic ; Storm surge ; Southerly wind ; Climate projections ; ERA5 ; ALADIN52 ; RCA4 ; RegCM4

Sažetak
Flooding of the Adriatic coastline is predominantly caused by storm surges induced by winds from the south-eastern sector. This phenomenon in Venice is known as acqua alta. We present a study of wind fields favouring storm-surge setups in the Adriatic, including their characteristics in the present climate and their expected characteristics in future scenarios. Analysis is based on (i) measured sea levels in Venice and Bakar (1984–2014), (ii) near-surface wind from ERA5 reanalysis, and (iii) simulations of wind fields with three regional climate models (ALADIN52, RCA4, and RegCM4) forced with several global models (CNRM-CM, MPI-ESM-MR/LR, HadGEM2-ES, EC-EARTH, and IPSL-CM5). For future climates, we considered two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) with respect to the historical 1971–2000 period. It was found that the probability that the frequency, intensity, annual cycle, and spatial structure of the wind inducing the Adriatic storm surges will change in future climates is small. The result is robust and consistent according to all considered criteria—it does not depend on the analysed regional climate models, boundary conditions, climate scenarios, or future time interval.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geofizika

POVEZANOST RADA