Naslov
Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy

Autori
Bagić Babac, Marina ; Mornar, Vedran

Izvornik
IEEE access (2169-3536) 8 (2020); 148021-148030

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
Epidemic spread ; infection rate ; mathematical model ; SIR ; COVID-19 ; SARS-CoV-2

Sažetak
Confirmed cases of the disease COVID-19 have spread to more than 200 countries and regions of the world within a few months. Although the authorities report the number of new cases on daily basis, there remains a gap between the number of reported cases and actual number of cases in a population. One way to bridge this gap is to gain more in-depth understanding of the disease. In this paper, we have used the recent findings about the clinical courses of inpatients with COVID-19 to reset the initial conditions of the epidemic process in order to estimate more realistic number of cases in the population. By translating the reported cases certain number of days earlier with regard to an average clinical course of the disease, we have obtained much higher number of cases, which suggests that the actual number of infected cases and death rate might have been higher than reported. Based on the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy, this paper shows an estimate of the number of infected cases based on infection and removal rates from data during the pandemic.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Računarstvo, Interdisciplinarne tehničke znanosti, Integrativna bioetika (prirodne, tehničke, biomedicina i zdravstvo, biotehničke, društvene, humanističke znanosti)

Napomena
European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action CA15109 - European Cooperation for Statistics of Network Data Science (COSTNET)

POVEZANOST RADA