Naslov
Understanding and forecasting of coronal mass ejections

Autori
Mateja Dumbovic, Jingnan Guo, Manuela Temmer, M. Leila Mays, Astrid Veronig, Stephan Heinemann, Karin Dissauer, Stefan Hofmeister, Jasper Halekas, Christian Mostl, Tanja Amerstorfer, Jurgen Hinterreiter, Sasa Banjac, Konstantin Herbst, Yuming Wang, Lukas Holzknecht, Martin Leitner, and Robert F. Wimmer– Schweingruber

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, ostalo

Skup
16th European Space Weather Week

Mjesto i datum
Liège, Belgija, 18.11.2019. - 22.11.2019

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Pozvano predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
coronal mass ejections, space weather

Sažetak
Forecasting the arrival and impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their associated shocks is one of the key aspects of space weather. In recent years many models have been developed by various research groups aiming to understand and ultimately forecast CME arrival time and/or impact. The models differ based on the input, approach, assumptions and complexity ranging from simple empirical and analytical to complex numerical and machine learning models. However, regardless of the model, forecasting CME arrival and especially impact has proven to be exceedingly challenging. One of the major setbacks is the uncertainty of the CME observational input, which is still substantial despite state-of-the-art remote observational capacities such as high-resolution EUV imagers and stereoscopic observations. Another major setback is the uncertainty in the CME evolution/propagation itself, either due to unrealistic solar wind background, complex interactions or additional evolutionary processes (e.g. deflections, rotations, erosion). These limits will be discussed in the scope of a recent comprehensive combined modelling-observational case study of a complex July 2017 event (Dumbovic et al., 2019, ApJ).

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Fizika

POVEZANOST RADA