Naslov
Economic Determinants of Croatian Consumer Confidence: Real Estate Prices vs. Macroeconomy

Autori
Sorić, Petar ; Žokalj, Mateo ; Logarušić, Marija

Izvornik
Interdisciplinary description of complex systems (1334-4684) 18 (2020), 2-B; 241-257

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
business and consumer surveys ; consumer confidence ; economic sentiment ; real estate prices

Sažetak
This article provides a starting point for the analysis of the determinants of consumer confidence in Croatia. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag models, we analyse a wide array of macroeconomic drivers of consumer confidence. Despite the well-established fact that the Croatian economy is highly dependent of the real estate sector, consumers seem not to significantly react to real estate prices. On the other hand, we do find some evidence of a considerable long run impact of real wages, interest rates, and the general price level. In the short run, consumer confidence seems to also be responsive to stock market developments and unemployment. Overall, our estimates show that macroeconomic factors explain a lion’s share of variability in consumer confidence.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA