Naslov
Economic Sentiment in Quantitative Analysis

Autori
Čižmešija, Mirjana

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
Proceedings of the 15th International Symposium on Operational Research / Zadnik Stirn, Lidija ; Kljajić Borštar, Mirjana ; Žerovnik, Janez ; Drobne, Samo ; Povh, Janez - Bled : Slovensko društvo informatika, 2019, 4-4

ISBN
978-961-6165-55-6

Skup
15th International Symposium on Operations Research in Slovenia (SOR '19)

Mjesto i datum
Bled, Slovenija, 25.09.2019. - 27.09.2019

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Pozvano predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Nije recenziran

Ključne riječi
Business and Consumer Surveys, Economic sentiment indicator, Consumer confidence indicator, Leading Indicator, Time series analysis
(Business and Consumer Surveys, Economic sentiment indicator, Consumer confidence indicator, Leading Indicator, time series analysis)

Sažetak
: The incorporation of the psychological sentiment in quantitative analysis, especially in macroeconomic modelling, turned out to be necessary and invaluable during and after the recent crisis in 2008. It has been shown that knowing the level and the dynamics of GDP, industrial production, stocks of finished products, employment, investment, savings etc. is not enough. Equally important are the perception and expectation of business actors and consumers about these real macroeconomic variables. One of the important sources of the economic and consumer sentiment indicators are Business and Consumer surveys (BCS). Managers’ and consumers’ judgements about their economic surroundings, derived from BCS results, are expressed as different, empirically confirmed, leading indicators, like economic sentiment indicator or consumer sentiment indicator. It is well known that the European Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is one of the high- quality leading indicators of overall economic activity. They are based on assessments and expectations actors in five BCS sectors (industry, retail trade, services, construction and the consumer sector). Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) presents consumer sentiment. It is based on the consumers’ perceptions about the past, and expected financial situation of households, the expected general economic situation and the intentions to make major purchases over the next 12 months. Lately, some methodological improvements and new areas of application of economic sentiment in quantitative analyses are more present. The well-known econometric methods such as linear time series and panel data models, or simple regression and correlation analysis still exist. Nonetheless, the modern time series analysis methods such as state-space modelling, nonlinear econometrics (time-varying parameter models, threshold models and breakpoint tests) accentuate the role of economic sentiment in short-term forecasting of economic activity. Models, which include economic sentiment and all other BCS indicators, bring additional benefit to the methodological skills of economists and analysts.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

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