Naslov
Estimation of Failure Probability by Limit State Sampling

Autori
Đepina, Ivan ; Eiksund, Gudmund ; Le, Thi Minh Hue ; Fenton, Gordon

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014 / - : American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2014, 2063-2072

ISBN
978-078441360-9

Skup
2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM 2014) and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA 2014)

Mjesto i datum
Liverpool, Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo, 13.07.2014. - 16.07.2014

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
reliability analysis ; reliability ; time-dependent reliability

Sažetak
This paper presents a novel approach, referred to as Limit State Sampling, for estimating failure probabilities of engineering structures. The majority of methods used to evaluate failure probabilities involve a large number of simulations of the structural model. In situations with low failure probability and numerically complex structural models, this can become a computationally unpractical task. The Limit State Sampling approach is developed here with the intention of reducing the number of simulations of the structural model in the process of evaluation of the failure probability. This is performed by introducing a pseudo probabilistic density function with the purpose of sampling around the failure limit state. Samples from the pseudo probability density function are then used to construct a surrogate model of the structural behavior at the failure limit state. Finally, the failure probability is estimated by utilizing the efficiency of the surrogate model, with reduced computational expense. The novelty of the approach comes from the formulation of the pseudo probability density function and the application to the probabilistic analysis of structures.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Građevinarstvo

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