Naslov
Urban (ir)regularities in Eastern Croatia: Are the main urban economics law followed or not?

Autori
Žmuk, Berislav ; Jošić, Hrvoje

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Proceedings of the 8th International Scientific Symposium "Economy of Eastern Croatia - Vision and Growth" / Leko Šimić, Mirna ; Crnković, Brona - Osijek : Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta Josipa Jurja Strossmayera u Osijeku, 2019, 351-364

Skup
8. međunarodni znanstveni simpozij: Gospodarstvo istočne Hrvatske – vizija i razvoj = 8th International Scientific Symposium: Economy of Eastern Croatia – Vision and Growth

Mjesto i datum
Osijek, Hrvatska, 30.05.2019. - 31.05.2019

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Eastern Croatia ; Fibonacci series ; settlements ; Zipf’s law

Sažetak
It has been shown that in Eastern Croatia population decrease, mainly due to the Croatian War of Independence, bad economic situation and low fertility rates, is present more than 20 years. The main urban economics laws, such as Fibonacci growth sequence and Zipf’s law, however assume that the population is increasing. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether urban economics law hold in the case of decreasing population. The analysis is conducted by observing settlements sizes in five counties that together form the area of Eastern Croatia: county of Osijek-Baranja, county of Požega-Slavonia, county of Slavonski Brod-Posavina, county of Virovitica-Podravina and county of Vukovar-Sirmium. The settlements size data are collected from the official population censuses conducted in 1991, 2001 and in 2011. The conducted analysis has shown that the structure of Eastern Croatia’s urban population system comports with the Fibonacci sequence. Precisely, mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) has showed that Fibonacci method 2, which takes into account population of each successive city and divides it by the golden ratio constant, is more accurate than Fibonacci method 1 (8.32% vs 13.08%) implying little error in regard to Fibonacci sequence. In addition, when the settlements larger than 500 inhabitants were included in the analysis, another urban regularity known as Zipf’s law, seems to hold for Eastern Croatia in general and for the each observed county except in the case of Slavonski Brod-Posavina. The brought conclusions shed new light and bring insight to the problem of Eastern Croatia depopulation process from another perspective. New population census is planned to be conducted in 2021. It is highly recommended to repeat the analysis with the new data.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

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