Naslov
Predicting the 1-Year All-Cause Mortality After Hospitalization for an Acute Heart Failure Event: A Real-World Derivation Cohort for the Development of the S2PLiT-UG Score

Autori
Borovac, Josip Anđelo ; Glavaš, Duška ; Božić, Joško ; Novak, Katarina

Izvornik
Heart Lung and Circulation (1443-9506) 29 (2020), 5; 687-695

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
heart failure ; congestive ; mortality ; patient discharge ; probability ; risk

Sažetak
Background: Acute heart failure (AHF) is a complex syndrome associated with high morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to derive a simple risk score with which to identify AHF patients at high risk for an all-cause death event during the first year after hospital discharge. Methods: Three hundred AHF patients from the Heart Failure registry were included in the analysis. Cox regression with a forward- conditional algorithm and bootstrapping procedure was used to build the prognostic score, while c-statistic was used to assess the prognostic performance of the score. Results: Seven variables were independently associated with an all-cause mortality event during the 1- year follow-up (FU): estimated glomerular filtration rate of 40-60 ; estimated glomerular filtration rate <40 mL/min/1.73 m2 ; uric acid >450 μmol/L ; left-ventricular ejection fraction <45% ; sodium <136 mmol/L ; systolic blood pressure <115 mmHg ; and a positive history of previous heart failure- related decompensation event(s). The score derived from significant variables enabled classification of patients into three risk categories: low (0-2 points), intermediate (3 points), and high (4-6 points). Observed all- cause mortality rates during the 1-year FU were 6.1%, 30.5%, and 80.9% across the three risk categories, respectively. The score demonstrated a high level of discrimination for an all-cause death event in the derivation cohort with the c- statistic value of 0.907 (95% CI, 0.867-0.939 ; p < 0.0001) and adequate calibration. Conclusions: The S2PLiT-UG score is a simple tool with potential for facilitating risk stratification and therapeutic decision-making during the first year after hospitalisation for an AHF event. Future external validation studies are required to confirm its prognostic performance.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Kliničke medicinske znanosti

POVEZANOST RADA