Naslov
Forecasting Tourism Demand in Croatia: A Comparison of Different Extrapolative Methods

Autori
Baldigara, Tea

Izvornik
Journal of Business Administration Research (1927-9507) 2 (2013), 1-2; 84-92

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
forecasting ; foreign tourists’ nights ; Croatia ; basic extrapolative methods ; forecasting accuracy

Sažetak
The paper investigates the forecasting accuracy of different basic extrapolative methods in modelling international tourism demand in Croatia. The study compares the results of five basic time-series forecasting methods used to predict foreign tourists’ nights, namely the Naïve 2 trend, the double moving average with linear trend, the double exponential smoothing, the linear trend time and the autoregressive method. According to the diagnostic all used model show good forecasting performances, but the double moving average method performed the best forecasting performance due to the smallest value of the mean absolute percentage error.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA