Naslov
Identification of Patient Zero in Static and Temporal Networks : Robustness and Limitations

Autori
Antulov-Fantulin, Nino ; Lančić, Alen ; Šmuc, Tomislav ; Štefančić, Hrvoje ; Šikić, Mile

Izvornik
Physical Review Letters (0031-9007) 114 (2015); 248701-1

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
patient zero ; temporal networks

Sažetak
Detection of patient zero can give new insights to epidemiologists about the nature of first transmissions into a population. In this Letter, we study the statistical inference problem of detecting the source of epidemics from a snapshot of spreading on an arbitrary network structure. By using exact analytic calculations and Monte Carlo estimators, we demonstrate the detectability limits for the susceptible infected-recovered model, which primarily depend on the spreading process characteristics. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of the approach in a case of a simulated sexually transmitted infection spreading over an empirical temporal network of sexual interactions.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Fizika, Računarstvo

POVEZANOST RADA