Naslov
Some pitfalls of the semiempirical method used to project sea level

Autori
Orlić, Mirko ; Pasarić, Zoran

Izvornik
Journal of climate (0894-8755) 28 (2015); 3779-3785

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
atmosphere-ocean interaction; sea level; climate prediction; multidecadal variability; trends

Sažetak
Three variants of the semiempirical method for sea level projection are considered. They differ in assuming that the response of sea level to temperature forcing is equilibrium, inertial, or a combination of the two. All variants produce a successful regression of the temperature and sea level data, albeit with controlling parameters that differ among the cases. The related response times vary considerably, with a realistic value (~50 yr) obtained only if both the equilibrium and the inertial dynamics are taken into account. A comparison of sea levels projected by using the three variants shows that the time series are similar through the middle of the twenty-first century but they radically diverge by the end of the twenty-third century. This result is interpreted with the aid of the underlying transfer functions. It suggests that one should be cautious when using the semiempirical method to project sea level beyond the twenty-first century.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija

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