Naslov
Climate change, sea-level rise and coastal flooding

Autori
Orlić, Mirko

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, ostalo

Izvornik
Workshop “Breaking the Surface 2014” / - , 2014, 9-10

Skup
Breaking the Surface 2014

Mjesto i datum
Biograd na Moru, Hrvatska, 05.10.2014. - 12.10.2014

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Plenarno

Vrsta recenzije
Nije recenziran

Ključne riječi
climate change; sea level; flooding

Sažetak
The presentation starts with an overview of the past global temperature variability – and especially of the temperature rise over the last hundred or so years – based on both observations and modeling. Some temperature projections for the twenty-first century are presented. Moreover, precipitation variability in the past and its expected changes in the future are briefly commented upon. The presentation then turns to three different methods that are used to determine sea-level change: reconstruction based on geological sea-level indicators, measurement with tide gauges of various types and measurement with satellite altimeters. Global sea-level variability over hundreds of thousands of years and sea-level rise during the last century are then described. It is pointed out that the changes depend on the changes of (1) the ocean volume due to the absorption of heat, (2) the ocean mass caused by the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and (3) the ocean mass related to the varying water storage on land. The modeling of sea level is considered next. It is shown how modeling is used to project sea-level rise for the twenty-first century. These projections are compared with those obtained with an independent method, which utilizes various empirical relationships between global temperature and global sea level. It is found that the two methods give somewhat different results and the reasons for the discrepancy are addressed. Extreme flooding events in various places around the world are also considered, in particular those related to the hurricanes Katrina (2005), Nargis (2008), Sandy (2012), and Haiyan (2013). The projection of storm-surge events is briefly mentioned. The presentation then focuses on the Mediterranean and Adriatic area. It is shown that during the second half of the twentieth century the sea-level trends were close to zero in the area and that therefore they considerably departed from the global trends. A recent shift in the Mediterranean dynamics and the projections available for the sea are considered. Extreme flooding events in the Adriatic are described as well ; it is pointed out that the Bakar tide gauge – the oldest one in Croatia – recorded four highest sea levels after the year 2008. The presentation concludes with a projection of the Adriatic storm surges.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija

POVEZANOST RADA