Naslov
Potential impacts of the Common agricultural policy in the Croatian milk and dairy sector

Autori
Zrakić, Magdalena ; Salputra, Guna ; Grgić, Ivo

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, ostalo

Skup
The 14th EAAE Congress ‘Agri-Food and Rural Innovations for Healthier Societies’

Mjesto i datum
Ljubljana, Slovenija, 26.08.2014. - 29.08.2014

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Poster

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
milk and diary sector; CAP; PE modelling; Croatia

Sažetak
Livestock production is high value part of Croatian agriculture because of their basic products, milk and meat. It participates with 14% in the total value of agricultural production. Milk production is an valuable source of Croatian agriculture. Share of Croatian milk production in European Union total production was 0.43% in 2012. Drought in the 2012 year had a negative effect on yields in crop production and livestock feed prices. In addition, the effects of the economic crisis in other sectors of the Croatian economy adversely affect the agricultural production. Production volume of most agricultural products in crop and livestock production decreased. Insufficient quantity and fodder price increase with increasing energy prices have also impacted on the numbers of animals in the fund of livestock. The largest quantity of milk collected was in 2009, 657, 289, 053 kg. Since then, the number of milk suppliers declined 35% and in the 2011 there were 17, 366 active milk suppliers. In the first three months of the 2013 it was collected 18% less milk than the same period in 2012. The fall in the number of dairy cows ranged from 23, 122 (2011) to 22, 700 (2013). Despite these indicators, the quantity of milk delivered by the supplier increased in the period at a CAGR of 12%. Also, there were changes in the structure of milk producers. More than half of the milk supplied in the 2011 were delivered by the manufacturers with an annual production of more than 100, 000 kg. In Croatia, the average quantity of milk supplied by the supplier was 9000 kg in the 2003, while in 2012 that quantity was approximately 50, 000 kg. The objective of this paper is to present the results of projections using partial equilibrium models (AGMEMOD) in the context of the national dairy sector and measures of the Common Agricultural Policy (2014-2020). AGMEMOD is an econometric, dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium model wherein a bottom-up approach is used. Based on a set of commodity specific model templates, country specific models were developed to reflect the detail of agriculture at Member State level and at the same time to allow for their combination in an EU model. Preliminary results of baseline projections show the favorable situation for Croatian dairy sector in 2020 with an opportunity to increase production at current price level on EU market and world markets taking into account the abolition of milk quotas and EU CAP as it is implemented in Member States in 2014. However, Croatian milk producers could be quite vulnerable with respect to changes on market, production structures and CAP 2015-2020 implementation in other countries. Nevertheless, results allow to conclude that composition of 1st and 2nd Pillar elements around the EU and including in case of fully decoupled and utmost coupled to dairy sector payments scenarios can play the background role, while uptake of opportunities given by CAP in terms of improvement of production structures and efficiency will play the most important role.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Poljoprivreda (agronomija), Ekonomija

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