Naslov
PROCJENA KLIMATSKIH PROMJENA DO KRAJA XXI. STOLJEĆA S POSEBNIM OSVRTOM NA HRVATSKU OBALU I TURIZAM – UTJECAJI, RANJIVOSTI I PRILAGODBE
(ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNTIL THE END OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON THE CROATIAN COAST AND TOURISM – IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATIONS)

Autori
Kalinski, Vladimir

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Ocjenski radovi, doktorska disertacija

Fakultet
SVEUČILIŠNI INTERDISCIPLINARNI POSLIJEDIPLOMSKI DOKTORSKI STUDIJ

Mjesto
Zagreb

Datum
14.03

Godina
2013

Stranica
258

Mentor
Prohić, Esad

Ključne riječi
klimatske promjene; klimatsko modeliranje; Hrvatska; obalno područje; turizam; utjecaji; ranjivosti; prilagodbe
(climate change; climate simulations; Croatia; coastal area; tourism; impacts; vulnerability; adaptation)

Sažetak
Using ModelE, reliability of modern climate models was analysed by comparing observed versus simulated surface temperatures and precipitation for the period 1901-2011 and 1901-2000, respectively. Global surface temperature and precipitation were projected for the end of century. Projections of several global and regional models were analysed in order to get surface temperature and precipitation values for Croatia for the period 2070-2100. According to A2 climate scenario, a rise in temperature is projected for all seasons in Croatia, while a decrease of precipitation is expected for all seasons except winter. Snow cover cannot be projected with certainty. More frequent occurrences and intense severity of extreme weather events is certain. After IPCC projections, mean sea level is expected to rise. Impacts on and vulnerability of Croatian coastal area and tourism sector were analysed and number of “no-regret” adaptation measures have been suggested, as well as a new methodology for determination of vulnerability potential.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija

POVEZANOST RADA