ࡱ> tkbjbj .&8DYL8IK"mmmblHHHHHHHKfNH]Z!|Z!Z!HmmH222Z!* mmH2Z!H22FHm!eD0.GHI08I3GPO 0PO(HPOH`",N2$"""HH1"""8IZ!Z!Z!Z!PO""""""""" :METHODS OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN MARITIME ACTIVITIES IN A FUNCTION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Doc. Mila Nadrljanski, PhD. Faculty of Maritime Studies  Split, Croatia  HYPERLINK "mailto:milamika60@yahoo.com" milamika60@yahoo.com Ratko Bo~i, MA chairman of Split Ship Management, Split  HYPERLINK "mailto:ssm-training@ssm.htnet.hr" ssm-training@ssm.htnet.hr Vicko Batinica,MA chairman of Brodospas , Split vicko.batinica@brodospas.hr Summary Modern business operations of maritime companies impose the necessity of taking into consideration the risk factor; as there is no business activity which is not under an impact of risk, the management is obliged to take account of it and to learn how to manage risk. Studying risk management in maritime business is the topic of interest of many scientists and experts. Risk can be generally defined as a combination of probabilities for an event to happen causing consequences that arise from that event. In any business activity of a maritime company there are possible events which represent opportunities or threats to success. Therefore, the risk management should be acknowledged and both negative and positive aspects of risk should be dealt with. In general, speaking about practice, the risk management is concerned with negative implications, reducing thus the risk management to identification, prevention and mitigation of potential damage. The focus of an effective risk management should be directed to its identification and handling of identified risks. The objective of the management is to maintain maximum value of any business activities of a maritime company. Such an effective management increases the probability of success and reduces at the same time the probability both of failures and of uncertainty concerning achievement of general and common goals of a company. Maritime companies need to widen the scope of their understanding of risk management in order to understand how risk can become a prime mover in doing business. When strategic risk management is applied, the organization can balance its exposure to risk and enjoy more certainty when accepting risk which is necessary to create new services, business models and new ways of competition in the world market. Risk management implies understanding of risk facing the organization, as well as risk control. This paper deals with the risk analysis in maritime companies as a part of strategic management. Key words: risk, risk assessment, risk management 1.0. INTRODUCTION Concept of sustainable development is related to almost all aspects of human life, as well as to the restrictions of the planet we live on (increased population, limited natural resources, and unequal development of some countries). World organizations, politicians, economists, civil society associations and many others are considering looking into ways to influence this situation. It is obvious that economists warned by ecologists and civil society associations, very early started dealing with sustainable development. The main focus of this paper is to support the theory and practice dealing with risk management, and thus to improve sustainable development management systems. In order to ensure more intensified risk management system, one should be acquainted with factors, directly and indirectly effecting safety and lack of safety of persons and goods within a business world. The methodological framework includes identification of factors, definition of risk intensity from jeopardizing persons and goods, directly effecting quality of products and services. This can be achieved by applying knowledge of safe risk management work methods and techniques, as well as facts based process methods and techniques for making decisions. Any voluntarism or formalism in safe risk management as well as in quality management, are obviously new sources of endangerment. Consequently, one of essential elements of safe risk management in the quality management system is related to the education of managers, since lack of knowledge of safety management system and insufficient motivation level, as well as insufficiently positive attitudes regarding safe risk management in the quality system, make a significant obstacle to correct approaches to most important assignments of the quality management system. Today a business organization faces risks that can disable functioning not only of its entire business processes, but also of the organization as a whole. Risk is defined as an uncertainty of occurrence of an unfavorable event, caused by accident or by visa major, which can have an impact on business operations of an organization. There are possible occurrences in any organizations business activities that represent opportunities for success or challenges to it. Risk management consists of identification of various types of risks to which its business activities are exposed, of risk assessment by means of quantitative methods and of establishing procedures according to which the risk management is carried out. There are many different approaches and definitions regarding the scope of risk management, how it should be implemented and what its purpose is. There have been efforts to introduce standards in order to secure: Common terminology; Processes for implementation of risk management; Organizational structures of risk management; Objectives of risk management; This paper aims to present methods of risk management in maritime organizations. 2.0. RISK MANAGEMENT Risk management is a process of activities and the approach of the management focused on preservation of assets and the profitability of the organization, as well as on prevention of risk of losses. The purpose of risk management is to increase the risk transparency in order to facilitate managing and decision making processes. The effective risk management is a permanent process which implies an adjusted scope and data processing, as well as clearly established competencies regarding risk management. Such risk management requires permanent education in order to create new competencies to tackle new risks. The risk management process is focused on understanding the risk in order to facilitate effective decision making regarding the risk control. The risk management process is an activity which aims to continuously improve its effectiveness and efficiency. Risk control is a permanent activity as risks change over time; they appear and disappear, while their frequency and damage impacts also vary. Regulatory institutions throughout the world have acknowledged the necessity of risk management implementation. In 1996 the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) enacted the regulation stipulating allocation of adequate assets to cover risk positions by means of internal methods of business risk assessment. This process has triggered the change of methods in 1988, when the BIS published the Capital Accord to give incentive for implementation of risk management methodology. The Accord sets a minimum standard for allocation of adequate capital in order to achieve the standardization of implementation in different business operations. The 1988 Accord first of all applies to measuring of credit risk and sets the ratio between the capital and risk values in the amount of eight percent. Due to the accelerated market development, the implementation of more and more complex financial instruments in everyday usage and intensive academic research, in 1999 the BIS made a draft of a new agreement that emphasizes the three pillars on which it should be based: Minimum regulatory requests concerning adequate capital; Control of regulatory institutions over the allocated adequate capital and implementation of internal controls; Increased market discipline; Risk management covers both identification of the type of risk an organization is facing as well as risk control. The most important part of the process, which is also the most vulnerable one, is the risk assessment. Expert literature mostly distinguishes between qualitative and quantitative risk assessment. Regarding qualitative assessment, risk is evaluated empirically, i.e. descriptively, as opposed to the quantitative assessment, where the risk is described numerically (in financial terms). Risk management should identify and take into consideration both positive and negative risk aspects. Risk management is primarily concerned with negative impacts, whereby it is limited to identification, prevention and mitigation of a possible damage. It is obvious that entrepreneurs should be aware of risks, especially those that could have impact on growth or sustainability of their business, but entrepreneurs very often neglect risk, particularly if it cannot be noticed easily. An entrepreneur should analyze in detail the risk exposure; it is only through such an analysis that he/she can protect the business against losses and risks. The main reason is that risk management is more of an art than science and it often defies a precise analysis. Risk management should enable: Precise identification of risks that could cause financial losses; Assessment of severity of risks; Choice of best way to handle any risk. Market risk is a normal occurrence in entrepreneurship. This risk is most difficult to overcome because it emerges as markets passiveness to offer. The occurrence of a market risk should be evaluated prior to business undertaking. The evaluation must be accompanied with planned measures and procedures for preventive activities, for elimination of the risks, or curatively, to cure consequences. Competition risk is very close to market risk, as the competition is one of major components of common market. The entry of services on a market will most probably cause changes in the behavior of competition. Planned measures to prevent and eliminate the competition risk must include activities that could answer to one of the mentioned events. Technology risk is related to numerous and fast changes in the development of science and technology. The biggest hazard for a new producer is the adoption of a new technology in competitive organizations at the moment of his entry on a market. There is a big danger of technology risk in developing countries whose companies buy technology from companies in highly developed countries, as the technology offered to them is often obsolete and not in line with the latest achievements. Risk management is a process whereby we justify business-wise the choice of certainty solutions and controls, aiming to ensure a sufficient level of certainty. 3.0. DECISIONS ON RISK CONDITIONS So called business decision making corresponds to the decision making in business situations within an organization and in its environment. It is clear that different fields in which decisions are made have certain specifics as well as certain similarities. Managers and leaders on any levels have a task of making quality decisions and of controlling the implementation of the decisions made. Decision making represents the process of preparation and making of a decision. It can be defined as making choice among more options. The quality of the decision depends on the logic framework for decision making and the way how a manager makes decisions. Decisions can be divided into strategic, tactical and operational. Decision making under risk conditions is characterized by the factor by which the decision maker is familiar with possible variants of problem solution, but is not with certainty familiar with the consequences of each variant. Therefore, decision making under risk conditions means making decisions in circumstances when outcomes are not certain, but the probabilities of different outcomes are known. Uncertainty in business decision making is the topic that has become the focus of management, changing the role of the analysis in decision making. Due to the extraordinary value of information which can eliminate a higher or lower level of uncertainty, different systems have been developed to support decision making. Their strength lies in the integration of strong possibilities of search of information with modern heuristic searching techniques for solution space. They contain a database of decision making models and recommend the best way of decision making depending on concrete circumstantial factors of the business environment. It is important here to choose an adequate implementation strategy of those systems in the organization in order to ensure their effects in practice. When determining the probability of each single option, both mathematical models, as well as evaluation, i.e. experience, can be used. The probability of realization of a certain option that is established by modeling based on historical data is called the objective probability, as opposed to the subjective probability that is established based on former experiences. After making a decision on processing risk and application of chosen control tools following the decision, day-to-day activities of risk management should be started. The qualitative risk assessment is the basis for risk management in business certainty management systems. However, ensuring unambiguousness, reliability, objectiveness and repeatability in quality assessment procedures is often problematic. Methods proposed by existing standards have certain lacking because of which they do not meet all the criteria that are necessary for risk assessment. The range of values of estimated risk enables higher flexibility in subsequent risk management procedure, which can be of advantage, especially in complex systems with huge resources, as it enables a more precise ranging and an efficient prioritization of critical elements. 4.0. MODELING TOOLS Statistical models of decision making are most often presented as a cluster of vectors of alternatives (activity, strategy) and possible circumstances (nature conditions). The combination of activity vectors with circumstance vectors ensures certain effects. Convenient means of illustrating a decision making model are decision making tables and decision making tree. The table or matrix of decision making (effectiveness matrix, table of conditioned values) is the quantitative matrix of consequences of activities and conditions of nature with certain probability of condition. The expected (conditioned) outcomes can be expressed as financial effects and effects in units of utility measures. If the financial effects are expressed in the decision making matrix as the expected profit or payoff (that can also have a negative value), the decision making table is called payoff table (conditional profit table), and in Croatian literature it is referred to as payment table. Furthermore, in solving issues of business risks, modeling tools have a significant role. Regarding the functionality, those tools enable documenting and analysis of the current situation, as well as documenting proposals for improvement and analyzing expected effects caused by proposed changes. Availability of modeling tools for business processes is the result of a strong interest in this domain in the last ten years. Strong competition between modeling tools for business processes enables potential buyers to choose, but at the same time there is a problem of choosing the right program tool. Therefore, it is necessary to define, systematize and analyze the characteristics of program tools in this domain. The risk domain where there are no convenient modeling tools is especially problematic. When choosing a tool for modeling business risks, the objectives of the project must be considered and the choice criteria must be defined, whereby the relative importance of the criteria is based on preferences of the decision maker. The risk management model in maritime companies applies methods of multi-criteria decision making: the Analytic Hierarchy Process or AHP method. The AHP is one of the methods of the multi-criteria analysis that simplifies the complexity of decision making to a sequence of comparisons criteria and options and the synthesis of the final result. ELECTRA method and the decision making tree (diagram) is another multi-criteria decision making method whereby the issue of decision making consists of identification of the option among other options, which is the best one concerning all the criteria. The decision making tree is a graphic illustration/diagram of possible decisions and their consequences and it is used for decision making in unstable 4.1. The matrix of predefined values This risk estimation method uses three parameters: the value of a resource, threat, and vulnerability. Each of these parameters is observed in relation to possible impacts, while the threats are observed in relation to adequate vulnerabilities (1). All the parameters are quantified arbitrarily. R = f (AVI, VI, P, TI, V, P) (1) Where: R is risk extent (Risk) AV is risk estimation asset value (AssetValue) V is vulnerability to threat (Vulnerability) T is threat (Threat) P is threat realization probability (Probability) I is Impact (Impact) A variation of this method, explicitly indicated in literature, uses numerical values ranging from 0 (low) to 4 (very high) for determining resource value, while the range from 0 (low level) to 2 (high level) is used for the quantification of vulnerability. The risk level is determined by the sum of parameter values (2). R= AV + V + T (2) Table 1 shows the matrix of predefined values. Table 1. EMBED Excel.Sheet.8 Minimal and maximal values of estimated risk (3) can be calculated on the basis of (2) and of value range, indicated in the sources of the cited literature. RMIN - AVMIN +VMIN + TMIN =0 RMAX - AVMAX +VMAX + TMAX =8 (3) The estimated risk can acquire all the whole-number values between RMIN and RMAX, including them too. Figure 1. and Figure 2. show the distribution, i.e. the cumulative distribution of the function for risk estimation, defined in this way. It can be noticed that the function for the risk estimation tends to average the value (Figure 1.) while the diagram of the cumulative distribution of risk is concave (Figure 2.). EMBED Excel.Chart.8 \sEMBED Excel.Chart.8 \s Figure 1. Figure 2 The use of the matrix of the predefined values enables arbitrary risk ranking, according to their value, during a subsequent process of risk treatment, i.e. risk management, but, because of the function of distribution, it does not prioritize bigger risks. The shortcoming of this method is that the risk estimation does not explicitly use the possible consequences and probabilities of the achievement. The consequences are implicitly used for the estimation of the sizes of all parameters, and the values of threats and vulnerabilities should, in some way, be equal to the probability of the realization of specific events. Moreover, it is very difficult to observe threats and vulnerabilities separately in practice, because of which the independent determining of values for both parameters is rather dubious. 4.2. Threat ranking according to risk estimation This risk estimation method formally uses only two parameters: the influence on the resource (the resource value), and the probability of threat realization. It is implicitly included that the effect on the resource is equivalent to the resource value, while the threats are observed in relation to adequate vulnerabilities. In that way, the estimated risk becomes the function of more parameters (4). R = f (I AV, T, PV, T) (4) A variation of this method, explicitly described in cited literature, uses the identical range of values for the influence (the resource value) and the probability of threat realization. The possible values are in the range from 1 (low) to 5 (very high). The risk level is determined by the product of these two parameters (5). R = I * P (5) The Table 2. represents the matrix for the risk estimation, obtained in that way, together with the ranked threats. Table 2 Influence (value)Probability of realizationRisikThreat rankingThreat A52102Threat B2483Threat C35151Threat D1335Threat E4144Threat F2483 On the basis of (5) and the range of values, which are indicated by sources of the cited literature, minimal and maximal values of the estimated risk can be calculated (6). RMIN - IMIN +PMIN =1 RMAX - IMAX +PMAX =25 (6) EMBED Excel.Chart.8 \sEMBED Excel.Chart.8 \s Figure 3 Figure 4 The estimated risk can acquire whole-number values between RMIN and RMAX, including them too, and excluding prime numbers outside the range of value and their multiples. Figures 3. and 4. demonstrate the distribution, i.e. the cumulative distribution, of the function for risk estimation, defined in this way. It can be noticed that the function for risk estimation tends to group the lower values and emphasize the higher ones (Figure 3.), while the diagram of the cumulative distribution of risk is convex (Figure 4.). The threat ranking by the risk estimation enables their prioritizing in the subsequent procedure of treatment, i.e. the risk management. The shortcoming of this method is that the risk is explicitly estimated by using only two parameters, which are implicitly the functions of several variables. Also, this method equalizes the value of resource and the possibility of effect on the resource, which is not correct in some cases. 4.3. The estimation of the probability of realization and the possible consequences The procedure of risk estimation in this method is more complex than in previous two and is conducted in two steps. First, the value of the resource, based on the potential consequences in the case of realization of a certain threat, is defined. After that, on the basis of vulnerabilities and threats, the probability of realization is determined (7). P = f (V, T) (7) Finally, the risk is estimated as a combination of the resource value and the probability of realization (8). R = f (PV, T, AVI , T) (8) A variation of this method, explicitly described in the cited sources of the literature, uses the range from 0 (low) to 4 (very high), for determining the resource value. For determining the seriousness of vulnerabilities and threats, the range from 0 (low) to 2 (high) is used. The probability of realization (frequency) is calculated as the sum of the estimated sizes of vulnerabilities and threats (9). P = V + T (9) The total risk is calculated as the sum of the resource value and the probability of realization (10). R = AV + P = AV + V + T (10) The Table 3. demonstrates the matrix for determining the probability of realization. Table 3 EMBED Excel.Sheet.8 With a determined probability of realization and a known resource value, the risk is estimated through the defined matrix (Table 4.). EMBED Excel.Sheet.8 The minimal and maximal values of the estimated risk can be calculated in the same way as in (6) and can reacquire all the whole-number values between RMIN and RMAX, including them too. The functions of distribution, i.e. the cumulative distribution, are also identical, as well as in the method 1 (Figures 2. and 3.) With the evaluation of probability and possible damage, the risk ranking, according to estimated value, is enabled, similarly as in the use of the matrix of predefined values. Formally, the formulas for risk estimation, that are used in the method 1 (the matrix of predefined values) (2) and in this method (10), are totally identical. The essential difference between them is that in the method 1, during the estimations of vulnerabilities and threats, the probability of realization, i.e. frequency, is implicitly reflected. During the estimation of the probability of realization and possible consequences, the procedure is reversed. In other words, on the basis of the estimation of vulnerabilities and threats, the belonging probability of realization is determined. In this method, the independent estimation of the level of threat and vulnerability is also problematic. 4. 4. The separation of acceptable and unacceptable risks In this method, the risk is estimated by binary values; as acceptable (0) or unacceptable (1). The way of risk estimation can be identical to the one in the previous method, only the matrix of the estimated risk values is binary (Table 5.), as well as the range of values that the estimated risk can acquire (11). ~ Value of resource01234Probability of realization000001100011200111301111411111 RMIN = 0 RMAX = 1 The method of separation of acceptable and unacceptable risks in fact represents a variation of the method 3 (the estimation of probability of realization and possible consequences) or of the method 1 (the matrix of predefined values) and, as such, inherits the advantages and the disadvantages of those methods. The absence of exact (financial) values in risk estimation, can, but does not have to, be a shortcoming during the qualitative risk estimation, since the necessary financial analysis can be conducted even through the subsequent procedure of treatment, i.e. risk management. 4. 5. The final consideration Weak understanding and unsuccessful management of operative risk, present in almost all transactions and activities of the company, can considerably increase the probability of some risks remaining unrecognized and uncontrolled. The management is responsible for the formation of organizational culture, which gives the priority to efficient management of the operative risk and to persistency in realization of good operative controls. The management of the operative risk is most efficacious when the organizational culture of the company emphasizes high standards of ethical behavior at all its levels. Because of that, the subjectivity during parameter value estimation, by which the risk is estimated, is considered the largest shortcoming of the quantitative risk estimation. Beside the assumption that the lower number of parameters that have to be subjectively determined, proportionally reduces the unreliability of the results, the method 2 (ranking of the threats according to risk estimation) which estimates the risk on the basis of merely two explicit values, could be considered most reliable. However, if we take into consideration that the risk estimation parameters are interrelated, i.e., that they are observed as implicit functions of other parameters in the described methods, it can be established that more insecurity in the result of risk estimation is introduced exactly by those implicit functions, especially when they depend on more parameters. Also, the subjectivity during the use of implicit functions with more parameters can influence the repetition of risk estimation procedure, if that process is carried out independently by more individuals, in different time intervals. In the method 2, both parameters are implicitly functions of more parameters, which has a great influence on the reliability of the result. The good side of this method is that the risk is estimated as the product of the parameters, and the result is appropriate distribution. In that way it enables more precise determining of the boundary between the acceptable and unacceptable risks, i.e. their clearer prioritization in the process of risk treatment. The method 4 demonstrates a variation of the methods 1 or 3 and, as such, it will not be specially considered. The methods 1 and 3 formally give the same results of risk estimation. The fact that the probability of realization in method 3 is estimated on the basis of vulnerabilities and threats can be considered as an advantage in relation to method 1, in which it is implicitly included in the estimation of the levels of vulnerabilities and threats themselves. In both methods, the levels of vulnerabilities and threats are observed separately, which was previously emphasized as a problem, since a reliable separate estimation of those values is experientially very difficult. Finally, a reduced range of estimated risk sizes, due to the use of the sum of parameters, in relation to product, can be the limiting factor in the subsequent process of risk management. 5.0. MODELING MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS Risks in business operation of maritime organizations emerge in numerous forms and various intensities. Risk is defined as an uncertainty of occurrence of an unfavorable event caused by accident or by visa major, which can have an impact on business operations of an organization. There are possible occurrences in any business activities of the organization that represent opportunities for success or challenges to it. Risk management is a part of business operation of a maritime organization and it consists of identification of various types of risks to which its business activities are exposed, of risk assessment by means of quantitative methods and of establishing procedures according to which the risk management is carried out. As the job of a maritime organization is to take over risks, the request regarding identification and permanent assessment of material risks that could have a negative impact on achievement of the objectives of an organization is well-established. The assessment should encompass all the risks a maritime organization is facing, especially credit, interest rate, solvency, operational, legal and reputation risk. The risk management process also enables the development of a strategy and sets objectives in the domain of business safety in maritime activities. In spite of the theoretical basis (quantitative approach) that enables a precise risk assessment, practice shows that such an approach, where the resources value in the business operation is mostly defined with their book value, is not adequate. Therefore, when assessing risks in maritime business operations the qualitative approach, i.e. the combination of the qualitative and quantitative approach, is preferred. 6.0. CONCLUSION Poor understanding and unsuccessful management of operational risk present in transaction and activity of an organization can increase the probability for some risks to remain unidentified and uncontrolled. The management is responsible to create the organizational culture that gives priority to the effective management of operational risks and to the persistent implementation of good operational controls. The operational risk management is most effective when the organizational culture promotes high standards of ethical behaviour on all the levels of the organization. Therefore, the subjectivity during the assessment of value parameters for risk evaluation is considered to be the biggest flaw of the qualitative risk assessment. The operational risk management should be based on the corresponding definition of the operational risk that clearly defines what is taken into consideration under the term of operational risk in the maritime organization. The system should encompass risk preferences of the shipping company and its resistance to operational risk as it is defined by the risk management policy. It should also set the priorities of the organization regarding activities of operational risk management, including the scope and the way how the operational risk is taken out of the organization. The system should also encompass the policies of the organization regarding the identification, assessment, monitoring and controlling/reducing risk. The degree of formality and the sophistication of the operational risk management should be in proportion with its risk profile. The management is responsible for establishing a managing structure that can implement the operational risk management system. As the essential aspect of the operational risk management refers to establishment of strong internal controls, it is particularly important for the management to establish a clear hierarchy of managerial competencies, responsibilities and reporting. Besides, it is necessary to separate the competencies and the hierarchy of reporting of the functions of the operational risk control, business activities and supporting functions, in order to avoid clash of interests. The system should also define which risk management processes the organization should have. The management should continuously review the system to ensure that the company manages operational risks resulting from the changes in the market and other factors in the environment, as well as with operational risks that are related to new products, activities and systems. Reference: Ang, A. H-S, Tang, W. H., Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Vol. 2, Decision, Risk and Reliability, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1983, pp. 186-228; 450-3. Baker, M. J., Review of the Theoretical Basis for Risk and Reliability Assessment of Structures, Proc. I Mech E Seminar, Risk Assessment of Structures, 10 December, 1999, London. Vandenbosch, Betty: Designing Solutions For Your Business Problems, A Structured Process for Managers and Consultants, Published by Jossey-Bass, ISBN 0-7879- 6765-3 Graham b., Ben: Detail Process Charting, Speaking the Language of Process, Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey, ISBN 0-471-65394- Bo~i, Ratko, Upravljanje rizicima u pomorskom poslovanju, stru ni magistarski rad, Pomorski fakultet, Split, 2008. Dosti, M.,  Menad~ment malih i srednjih preduzea Izdava : Ekonomski fakultet Tuzla, 2004. Kumamoto, H., Henley, E. J., Probabilistic RiF H J ! 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