Naslov
Tourism demand and garch models for Croatia

Autori
Šergo, Zdravko ; Poropat, Amorino ; Gržinić, Jasmina

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
20th Biennal International Tourism & Hospitality Industry 2010 : New Trends in Tourism and Hospitality Management : proceedings / Perić, Jože - Opatija : Fakultet za menadžment u turizmu i ugostiteljstvu Sveučilišta u Rijeci, 2010, 599-615

ISBN
978-953-6198-78-8

Skup
Biennal International Tourism & Hospitality Industry 2010 : New Trends in Tourism and Hospitality Management (20 ; 2010)

Mjesto i datum
Opatija, Hrvatska, 06.05.2010. - 08.05.2010

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
tourism demand; structural breaks; volatility; seasonality; SARIMA; GARCH;

Sažetak
In this paper, we study the behaviour of tourism demand for Croatia over the period of January 1990–August 2009 from a different perspective, in that we examine: whether there is a common structural break in the growth level of the time series of tourism demand. This paper empirically investigates some basic cyclic features, such as volatility in the growth level of tourism arrivals and overnight stays in Croatia. The data set comprises monthly figures for Croatia: overnight stays as well as tourist arrivals, from January 1990 - August 2009. They associated volatilities for monthly tourism data are estimated for the total tourism demand: using univariate SARIMA and volatility models for the data series. The univariate estimates suggest that the GARCH (1, 1) model provides an accurate measure of conditional volatility in monthly tourist arrivals and overnight stays in the observed time span.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA