ࡱ> ac`q`2!bjbjqPqP =(::= N***`$$$8$,%T#H|(%>%T%T%T%&& &rGtGtGtGtGtGtG$JhMGE*>*&"&>*>*GT%T%?G|,|,|,>*RT%*T%rG|,>*rG|,|,r>"*ZFT%% $*.E*VGG0#HXEM+MTvFM*vF&'|,}( )5&&&GG,^&&&#H>*>*>*>*TTTX#DTTTX#>R` Application of stochastical approach in deterministic calculation of geological risk; Case study from Drava depression Tomislav Malvi1,2 1INA-Naftaplin, Reservoir Engineering and Field Development Dept., Zagreb, Croatia,  HYPERLINK "mailto:tomislav.malvic@ina.hr" tomislav.malvic@ina.hr 2Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering, Institute for Geology and Geological Engineering, Zagreb, Croatia, Abstract There is well-established calculation procedure for geological risk (or Probability Of Success, abbr. POS) for any new or existing play or prospect in any petroleum province. This is already an old-fashion tool, but still applicable for practical calculation in many oil and gas companies or consulting firms. Modern approaches include several probabilities or probability curve expressed on different ways. One of them, based on geostatistical approach, is using of stochastical simulation through numerous realizations for obtaining several possible values for sampled area. Deterministical POS is calculated as multiplication of more or less standard geological categories. Some of them (like value of porosities or reservoir quality) are usually expressed through the maps. Each such category (based on mapped data) can be observed through many possible and equiprobable realizations. This parameter is varied stochastically and finally selected like several (3, 5 or more) numerical values. It means that final POS could be expressed with several results; but the most often like minimal, median and maximal POS. Here is presented example of such calculation based on data from the Croatian part of Pannonian basin. Keywords: geological risk, porosity, stochastic, Pannonian basin References: Gaeaa, S., Futivi, I., Gyorgy, F. and Horvath, Z. (2001):( Barcs Nyugat - Stari Gradac field study, INA-Naftaplin & MOL KTD, Zagreb, unpublished company document. Malvi, T. and Rusan, I. (2007): Potential hydrocarbon discoveries in Bjelovar subdepression, Croatia. Search and discovery article #10133, AAPG/Datapages Inc., Tulsa. Rose, P. R. (2001): Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures. AAPG Methods in Exploration Series, 12, 164 p. Smoljanovi, S. and Malvi, T. (2005): Impro     " # $ & ' r{ɾ͸ʹեyqi\Rhnh]c5aJhjRNhR'CJOJQJhR'mH sH hjRNmH sH h t)h`5mH sH  hjRNhjRNCJOJQJ^JaJhjRNh|>CJOJQJ^JhjRNh`CJOJQJ^Jh'N h`0JCjh`Uh`jh`Uh`H*mH sH h`H*mH sH h|>H*mH sH h`mH sH h'h|> % & rJL$0 -^`0a$gdjRN K0^`0gdnKgdnIdgd`SdhgdjRNGgd`gd`F$a$gd`Fgd`Egd` $]a$gd`|!!!hjrvxzHJL~d̷̟ޑ̷̷jXC(hjRNhjRNCJOJQJ^JaJnHtH"hnCJOJQJ^JaJnHtH+hjRNhn6CJOJQJ^JaJnHtH hjRNhjRNCJOJQJ^JaJhnCJOJQJ^JaJ. j]hjRNhnCJOJQJ^JaJnHtH(hjRNhnCJOJQJ^JaJnHtH"hjRNCJOJQJ^JaJnHtH hjRNhnCJOJQJ^JaJ hnaJhnhq5aJL {!|!~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!$a$gd&&`#$U0 -^`0gdjRND ѼzeP;9U)hjRNhjRNB*CJOJQJ^JaJph(hjRNhjRNCJOJQJ^JaJnHtH(hjRNhnCJOJQJ^JaJnHtH0hjRNhjRNCJOJQJ^JaJmHnHsHtH,hjRNhn6B*CJOJQJ^JaJph#hjRNB*CJOJQJ^JaJph)hjRNhnB*CJOJQJ^JaJph*hjRNCJOJQJ^JaJmHnHsHtH0hjRNhnCJOJQJ^JaJmHnHsHtHvements in reservoir characterization applying geostatistical modelling (estimation & stochastic simulations vs. standard interpolation methods), Case study from Croatia. Nafta, 56, 2, 57-63, Zagreb. White, D. A. (1992): Selecting and assessing plays. In: Steinmetz, R. (Ed.) AAPG Business of Petroleum Exploration: Treatise of Petroleum Geology, Chapter 8, AAPG, Tulsa, 87-94.     PAGE 2 xIII. geomatematikai ankt, mrahalom 2009. mjus !!e!|!}!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!ññÜ~z~z~z~zpjp_pj[SKh`mHsHh&mHsHh+3h'N0J.mHnHu h+30J.jh+30J.UhljhlU+hjRNhn6CJOJQJ^JaJnHtH(hjRNhnCJOJQJ^JaJnHtH#hjRNB*CJOJQJ^JaJph)hjRNhnB*CJOJQJ^JaJph(hjRNhjRNCJOJQJ^JaJnHtH#hnB*CJOJQJ^JaJph!!!!!!!!!!!!!ټ(hjRNhnCJOJQJ^JaJnHtHh&hlh+3h&h+3mHsHh&mHsHh`mHsHh|>mHsH !!U0 -^`0gdjRN; 0 00&P:p+3. 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GEOMATEMATIKAI ANK,,IDIPFCCQFD0IF0,GIJ%2 o ahT, MRAHALOM 200ACC-,PJFGIF@JP,@@@ 2  ah9@2  ah. MJUS -,PFAIC, 2 ah Kha'I@"Arial Black- G2  (ahApplication of stochastical approach in lk/.liB/kl.lC/aClhllbB/lk/.nlkFlkil./k/  P2 _.ahdeterministic calculation of geological risk; klClL/k/aC.l.ll.ll.iB/kl/kD.llk/lk/lk/.C.bk//  #2 ahCase study from kbk/bBlkb/9El/#2  ahDrava depressionEhbl/kllFkab/kl 2 uah  @"Arial-"2 $ahTomislav Malvi>Gh!A!A@ c@!@!A@"Arial-2 * ah1,2*)- 2  ah *@"Arial- 2 }ah1@"Arial-2 ! ahINA<7 2 ! %ah-2 ! ANahNaftaplin, Reservoir Engineering and Field Development Dept., Zagreb, Croatia,<../.=.*.)/8........./3/.</)...G..<..3../.</./ 2 ! ah .- ,2 W ahtomislav.malvic@ina.hr-  -  6 - @ !-] --  2 W ah - 2 W ah - 2 ah - 2  ah2-2 @ hahFaculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering, Institute for Geology and Geological Engineering, 3.*.(.E...B...0)...7../.G7../../..*...A..//(.//A....*/7.//....#2 vahZagreb, Croatia,3....<... 2 ah . 2 ah - 2 ` ah - 2 ah -@"Arial-2 . ahAbstractF;6%66 2 . ^ah 4@"Arial- 2 8  ahThere is wel>78!8<2<G8 2 8 4ahl 2 8 Jah-!y2 8 kIahestablished calculation procedure for geological risk (or Probability Of a82882888<2828788<8!81788!8;8!<7888728<!22<!8!<C!88881<Nha'2 XahSuccess, abbr. POS) for any new or existing play or prospect in any petroleum province. C822822!888!!CNC!!8!"881"88G"8!"81298"881"8!"8!82882"8!871"88!888T!8!81828ha',2 ahThis is already an old>82#2#8!8881#88#88 2 ah- t2 Fahfashion tool, but still applicable for practical calculation in many o82878#88"88#2#7882888"8!#8!8228"2828888#8"T781#82 @ahil tha'2 >Wahand gas companies or consulting firms. Modern approaches include several probabilities 888$782$27S88881$8 $2882887#!T2$S878!8$878!881882$82778$2818!8$8!887882ha'2 Wahor probability curve expressed on different ways. One of them, based on geostatistical 8!,8!88781,28!18,818!82288,88+88!78+G912,N88,7,87T,78288+88,78818228ha'2 Oahapproach, is using of stochastical simulation through numerous realizations for 888!7828$2$8287$8#28288128$2T8877$8!8878$88S8!882$!7818882$8!2  ah obtaining $888887ha'I2 C)ahseveral possible values for sampled area.i2818!8882288188728!27T8788!78 2 C ah 5ha'2 XahDeterministical POS is calculated as multiplication of more or less standard geological H88!T8228-CMC-2-2828888-82,T872888-7-S8!8-8!-822-28888 8-7888728ha'2 Uahcategories. Some of them (like value of porosities or reservoir quality) are usually a28878!82>B8S8>7=87T>!28>1888>7=88!8282>8!>!818!18!>7882!>8!8>82881ha'82 Iahexpressed through the maps. Ea818!8228888!88788788T7828C8R2 I/ahch such category (based on mapped data) can be 1882828728878!18!882888887T878788888!8288878ha'2 Wahobserved through many possible and equiprobable realizations. This parameter is varied 8828!188$8!7878$S871$882288$887$8788 88788$!8818882#=72$88!8S88!$2$18!88ha'2 [ahstochastically and finally selected like several (3, 5 or more) numerical values. It means 282881281&888&782&288288&28&2818!8&!8&8&8!&T8!8!&88S8!28&18882&&T8880ha':2 Nahthat final POS could be express88'88(CNB(2788'78(818!822b2 N:ahed with several results; but the most often like minimal, 87(G8(2818!8(!8282(78(87(S82(778(28'T8T8ha'2 Tahmedian and maximal POS. Here is presented example of such calculation based on data T8888 887!S81T8 CNC!H8 8!2!8!818878!818T88!7!2818!2828887!88188 88 888ha'J2 *ahfrom the Croatian part of Pannonian basin.!7T88H!788788!7C78788787828 2 6 ah 5ha'- - %6 T6 - - '-hhaagg``ff__ee^^dd]]cc\\bb[[aaZZ``YY _ _X X  ^ ^W W  ] ]V V  \ \U U  [ [T T ZZSSYYRRXXQQWWPPVVOO՜.+,D՜.+,D px  R8 i Manual Title$8  _PID_HLINKSUseDefaultLanguageVersionLCIDAt>Smailto:tomislav.malvic@ina.hr x   !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWYZ[\]^_bRoot Entry F=,dData 1TableKNWordDocument=(SummaryInformation(E$DocumentSummaryInformation8XCompObjq  FMicrosoft Office Word Document MSWordDocWord.Document.89q