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(Sambanis, 2001) The occurrence of a recession increases the probability of internal conflict. (Blomberg and Hess, 2002) Contact theory itself (2) Prejudice is lessened when the two groups: possess equal status, seek common goals, are cooperatively dependent upon each other, interact with the positive support of authorities, laws, or customs. (Pettigrew, 1971)`++             , C  b(Support to the hypotheses$J ECan we get additional support using an agent-based simulation model ?FF   c)Reasons for using AB modelling$d FAllows  playing with theries without the need to interfere with real human subjects Particularly adequate for investigating micro-foundations of macro-phenomena  7   @ f*Basic experimental design$J kDependent variable: ethnic prejudice Independent variables: level of contact, presence of economic context R    h+<Operationalization  the model$<2 model settings: Basic  Pure prejudice transmission model Corresponds to the absence of additional factors in contact theory Extended Prejudice transmission  embedded in economic context Economic context as additional factor 2 ethnic segregation patterns: High segregation  corresponds to low contact Low segregation  corresponds to high contactg \\g \             j,%Basic setting: prejudice transmission&& d  Agents of 2 ethnic groups:  blue and  red Main attribute: prejudice level Low, medium, or high Updated in each step by taking into account prejudice levels in an agent s  socializing circle  Socializing circle of an agent A (fixed) group of other agents that an agent meets and has an opportunity to  interact with Interaction = observing the prejudice level of the other agent`Lu!^?Lu!^?|           v2%Basic setting: prejudice transmission&& d  fProbability of interaction with a given agent from the socializing circle depends on: Ethnic membership of the given and the other agent Strength of the norm of exclusion within the given agent s ethnic group Prejudice level of the given and the other agent Strength of the norm of exclusion Group parameter indicating the inclination of group members to ostracize Members of other groups Members of the own group who are not willing to ostracize members of other groups Operationalized as a proportion of agents with high prejudice level within an ethnic group VZZ"ZJZjZ[ZZV"Jj\:               k-'Extended setting: economic transactions(( d  Basic setting extended with a simple economy of exchange with unlimited resources (EoE-UR) Additional attribute: wealth Each interaction accompanied with a simple economic transaction which increases the wealth of the interacting agents by random amount between 0 and 1         x3'Extended setting: economic transactions(( d fIf the wealth of the given agent is approximately equal to the wealth of the agents from the socializing circle: Prejudice level update is the same as in the basic setting If the wealth of the given agent is significantly less than the wealth of the agents from the socializing circle: The given agent is  dissatisfied and  has an incentive to try a new form of behaviour The new prejudice level of the given agent is chosen randomlyhqZ;ZrZZq;$<          z4Ethnic segregation patterns$J High segregation/low contact: Blue agents spatially segregated from red agents Low segregation/high contact: Blue agents spatially interspersed with red agentsL1313      l.Operational hypotheses$0  ?(H0) No significant effects of contact on ethnic prejudice in the absence of additional factors (basic setting) (H1a) Negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice (H1b) Amplifying effect of contact: Stronger negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice when the contact is high, than when the contact is lowf@Z2%#P        t10Micro-explanation  (H0)$< In the segregated setting agents only meet more agents of the other colour, all other things being equal. Prejudice level depends mainly on the amount of prejudice in the surroundings: If the proportions of prejudiced agents in the socializing circles are approximately equal (irrespective of the prevailing colour), prejudice levels of agents will stay approximately equal. Increased contact between groups will have no significant effect on prejudice.:QQL               |50Micro-explanation  (H1)$< Wealth increases with interaction Ideal-case assumption: unlimited resources, no competition Less prejudiced agents are  more open - have more opportunities for interaction There is a clear incentive to become less prejudiced L";Q6";p            }60Micro-explanation  (H2)$< In the non-segregated setting, prejudiced agents interact less than in the segregated setting (less  brethren in the surrounding) Prejudiced agents become less wealthy in the non-segregated setting than in the segregated setting There are more incentives to become less prejudiced in the non-segregated setting than in the segregated setting Stronger negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice in the non-segregated setting (when the contact is high)BZdZZXt               m0Control variables$0 Initial proportion of prejudiced agents in the population Radius of the socializing circle Population density &      n/Implementation in Entorama$JE" References $   Srediti!  P    /hFY[]_adeg i!o"p#q$r%s&u'w(y){*~+, ` 3ۢf>?" dd@?" dd@   @ ` n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` ` p>>     (  x  s *S"?P   Bd̐"YP B     0Ր "` 0 10th International Conference  Describing Complex Systems  DECOS Zadar, Croatia, September 4-6, 20084i  d            H  0޽h ? 3ۢf80___PPT10.s 01103891 0 x*(  x x 0yf  P   f  X*  x 0l~f     f  Z* d x c $ ?  f  x 0lf   0 f  RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!     S x 6hf  _P  f  X*  x 6 ; _  f  Z* H x 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.m 8(    0f  P   z  >*   0hf     f  @*   6$; _P  f  >*   6; _  f  @* H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.P     @ (  X  0A? P  C (Aff_logo D00   0; > ; RB  s *DԔ00  00;  jArmano Srbljinovi Ministry of Defence  Institute for Research and Development of Defence Systems, Zagreb, Croatia Vjekoslav Afri Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences University of Zagreb, Croatia Branimir a e Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture University of Zagreb, Croatia 8Pa(8PPI(8PPX(8P `   I  Y2          b  C ,Airos_0_70"`  H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.5 .+D=' = @B +7  NFP(    6|; "`P0}  ;   0P;  ` ; RB  s *DԔ   <;7    <;"`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +   y(    6m; "`P0}  ;   0m;  ` ; RB  s *DԔ   <q;7    <;"`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__       H|gֳgֳ?Pz,$ 0 o Gordon W. Allport: The Nature of Prejudice, 1954 Thomas F. Pettigrew: Racially Separate or Together, 1971 <$m%$p    H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +   @ ?(    6 ; "`P0}  ;   0;  ` ; RB  s *DԔ   <X;7    <;"`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__      6;"`  [Contact  6;@ P  { Other factors4   6d;@ P  Ethnic prejudice4 RB   s *D`  ` RB  s *D ` H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +   - %   (    6&b  "`P0}  b    0@'b   ` b  RB  s *DԔ   < -b 7    <t;"`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__      6?b "`@ P  [Contact  6Db    { Other factors4   6Hb    Ethnic prejudice4 RB   s *D  RB   s *DP    <Nb  \  K?6    <Rb P  K?6 H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +    \(    6h[b  "`P0}  b    06  ` b  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <h67    <gb "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__      6lb "`  [Contact  6ob  0 Economic context4   6tb  0 Ethnic prejudice4 RB   s *D@ @RB   s *D @H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +M  d\ (    6}b  "`P0}  b    0Āb   ` b  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <b 7    <b "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +N   e ] `  (     6b "`` <   6̟b  "`P0}  b    0b   ` b  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <b 7    <b "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__      6tnb "`  [Contact  6b    ~Economic context4   6b    Ethnic prejudice4 RB   s *D0  0 RB   s *D 0   <b <pL qAgent-based model&H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +   +#(    6pb  "`P0}  b    0b   ` b  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <b 7    <hb "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__      Hb gֳgֳ?,$ 0 = Microsociological foundations of group movements and conflicts have been neglected in political science, mainly because the proper theoretical tools to investigate the motives and thoughts of individuals, as well as the mechanisms and conditions of group mobilization, are lacking. (Bollerup and Christensen, 1997) . " (>      H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +   6(    6b  "`P0}  b  RB  s *DԔ   <xb 7    <b "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    `b " s *"`  fb # 0"`  `b $ s *"`  fb % 0"`  `b & s *"` fb ' 0"` `b ( s *"`  fb ) 0"`  ` * s *"`@ f + 0"`@ , <c f  =Contact - <c  d  `Economic context4 . < c   `  9low / <c  @  9low 0 <c  4  :high 1 < c  `  :high 2 <c  $  =present 3 <$ c  ` =present 4 <"c R $  w not present K 4 5 <%c @ D~  w not present K 4 6 01c   ` c  "  @H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +M ! d\(    67c  "`P0}  c    0H>c   ` c  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <Lc 7    <_6"`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +M " d\(    6Tc  "`P0}  c    0Tc   ` c  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <dac 7    <$hc "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +M ( d\4(  4 4 64J  "`P0}  J   4 0J   ` J  "  @RB 4 s *DԔ  4 <@z 7   4 <c "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H 4 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +M # d\(    6qc  "`P}  c    0Lxc   ` c  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <$|c 7    <c "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +M ) d\<(  < < 6؊  "`P}    < 08   `   "  @RB < s *DԔ  < <% 7   < < "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H < 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +M * d\D(  D D 6ī  "`P}  .  D 0Hw   ` . "  @RB D s *DԔ  D <ƫ 7   D <Ϋ "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H D 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +M $ d\0(    66 "`P0}  6   0D6  ` 6 "  @RB  s *DԔ   <67    <H6"`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +M ' d\,(  , , 60c  "`P0}  c   , 0c   ` c  "  @RB , s *DԔ  , <hc 7   , < c "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H , 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +M + d\ L(  L L 6V. "`P0}  .  L 0J   ` . "  @RB L s *DԔ  L <ZJ 7   L <J "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H L 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +M , d\@T(  T T 6ث  "`P0}    T 0$   `   "  @RB T s *DԔ  T <OJ 7   T <lJ "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H T 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +M & d\p (      6c  "`P0}  c     0ܑc   ` c  "  @RB   s *DԔ    <c 7     <tc "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H   0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +) % @8P(    6,c  "` `}  c  RB  s *DԔ   <c 7    <$c "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    v  6A ?0s  c H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +  dJ(  d d 6,c  "`P0}  c   d 04&c   ` c  RB d s *DԔ  d <Tc 7  d d C <A $MPj03853170000[1] g d <,c "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H d 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +  0  (  X  C x   f   S tf x 0  f  "H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.a p5" 0 h,(  h^ h S x   f  h c $d?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~DIWQ    * *C     H I   Z[\ ]^_` abcdefghij7kmnopqrstuPowerPoint Document(0DocumentSummaryInformation8/ 0DArialngs}0:A 0"DVerdanas}0:A 0" DWingdings}0:A 0@ .  @n?" dd@  @@`` 4,X0NDIWQ    * *C     H I   Z[\ ]^_` abcdefghij7kmnopqrstu vwxz{|}~b$.ړƀS٭MT02$@%CN锽2|0b$Wӣ۷aU/ b${ kR .Ii<\$$$$$$R$(o (`M&K= 0AA 3o@ ʚ;9ʚ;g4BdBd :A 0|ppp@  <4ddddL # 0g45d5d :A 0p@ pp0___PPT10 j___PPT9LD%, ? -O  = EAgent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama  FD    Outline$ Theoretical background Research hypotheses High-level description of the model Expected support from the model to the hypotheses Brief demonstration of the model using Entorama*       X#Contact theory$0bRelates contact between ethnic groups with prejudice within groups against members of other groups8c.l `'The role of contact$JdContact amplifies or reduces effects of other factors present in situations in which contact occurs @e0l -    Z$#Unresolved issues of contact theory$$ ~ tDoes not specify: Factors which might be influenced by contact Mechanisms by which contact influences other factors &cc   \%Theoretical hypotheses$0  VEconomic context as  an additional factor of the contact theory Economic context impacts ethnic prejudice Contact moderates the influence of economic context PA\" " Ai     ^&Support to the hypotheses$J Empirical research (1) Higher levels of economic development reduce the likelihood of ethnic wars. (Sambanis, 2001) The occurrence of a recession increases the probability of internal conflict. (Blomberg and Hess, 2002) Contact theory itself (2) Prejudice is lessened when the two groups: possess equal status, seek common goals, are cooperatively dependent upon each other, interact with the positive support of authorities, laws, or customs. (Pettigrew, 1971)`++             , C  b(Support to the hypotheses$J ECan we get additional support using an agent-based simulation model ?FF   c)Reasons for using AB modelling$d FAllows  playing with theries without the need to interfere with real human subjects Particularly adequate for investigating micro-foundations of macro-phenomena  7   @ f*Basic experimental design$J kDependent variable: ethnic prejudice Independent variables: level of contact, presence of economic context R    h+<Operationalization  the model$<2 model settings: Basic  Pure prejudice transmission model Corresponds to the absence of additional factors in contact theory Extended Prejudice transmission  embedded in economic context Economic context as additional factor 2 ethnic segregation patterns: High segregation  corresponds to low contact Low segregation  corresponds to high contactg \\g \             j,%Basic setting: prejudice transmission&& d  Agents of 2 ethnic groups:  blue and  red Main attribute: prejudice level Low, medium, or high Updated in each step by taking into account prejudice levels in an agent s  socializing circle  Socializing circle of an agent A (fixed) group of other agents that an agent meets and has an opportunity to  interact with Interaction = observing the prejudice level of the other agent`Lu!^?Lu!^?|           v2%Basic setting: prejudice transmission&& d  fProbability of interaction with a given agent from the socializing circle depends on: Ethnic membership of the given and the other agent Strength of the norm of exclusion within the given agent s ethnic group Prejudice level of the given and the other agent Strength of the norm of exclusion Group parameter indicating the inclination of group members to ostracize Members of other groups Members of the own group who are not willing to ostracize members of other groups Operationalized as a proportion of agents with high prejudice level within an ethnic group VZZ"ZJZjZ[ZZV"Jj\:               k-'Extended setting: economic transactions(( d  Basic setting extended with a simple economy of exchange with unlimited resources (EoE-UR) Additional attribute: wealth Each interaction accompanied with a simple economic transaction which increases the wealth of the interacting agents by random amount between 0 and 1         x3'Extended setting: economic transactions(( d fIf the wealth of the given agent is approximately equal to the wealth of the agents from the socializing circle: Prejudice level update is the same as in the basic setting If the wealth of the given agent is significantly less than the wealth of the agents from the socializing circle: The given agent is  dissatisfied and  has an incentive to try a new form of behaviour The new prejudice level of the given agent is chosen randomlyhqZ;ZrZZq;$<          z4Ethnic segregation patterns$J High segregation/low contact: Blue agents spatially segregated from red agents Low segregation/high contact: Blue agents spatially interspersed with red agentsL1313     vwxz{|}~b$.ړƀS٭MT02$@%CN锽2|0b$Wӣ۷aU/ b${ kR .Ii<\$$$$$  l.Operational hypotheses$0  ?(H0) No significant effects of contact on ethnic prejudice in the absence of additional factors (basic setting) (H1a) Negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice (H1b) Amplifying effect of contact: Stronger negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice when the contact is high, than when the contact is lowf@Z2%#P        t10Micro-explanation  (H0)$< In the segregated setting agents only meet more agents of the other colour, all other things being equal. Prejudice level depends mainly on the amount of prejudice in the surroundings: If the proportions of prejudiced agents in the socializing circles are approximately equal (irrespective of the prevailing colour), prejudice levels of agents will stay approximately equal. Increased contact between groups will have no significant effect on prejudice.:QQL               |50Micro-explanation  (H1)$< Wealth increases with interaction Ideal-case assumption: unlimited resources, no competition Less prejudiced agents are  more open - have more opportunities for interaction There is a clear incentive to become less prejudiced L";Q6";p            }60Micro-explanation  (H2)$< In the non-segregated setting, prejudiced agents interact less than in the segregated setting (less  brethren in the surrounding) Prejudiced agents become less wealthy in the non-segregated setting than in the segregated setting There are more incentives to become less prejudiced in the non-segregated setting than in the segregated setting Stronger negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice in the non-segregated setting (when the contact is high)0ZIZXt               m0Control variables$0 Initial proportion of prejudiced agents in the population Radius of the socializing circle Population density &      n/Implementation in Entorama$JE" References $   Allport, Gordon W., 1954, The Nature of Prejudice, Addison-Wesley. Axelrod, Robert, 1997, The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration, Princeton University Press. Blomberg, S. Brock and Gregory D. Hess, 2002, The Temporal Links between Conflict and Economic Activity, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(1), 74-90. Bollerup, Sren Rinder and Christian Dons Christensen, 1997, Nationalism in Eastern Europe: Causes and Consequences of the National Revivals and Conflicts in Late-Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe. Macmillan. a e, Branimir, 2008, Entorama, http://www.entorama.com Forbes, Hugh D., 1997, Ethnic Conflict: Commerce, Culture, and the Contact Hypothesis, Yale University Press. Grim, Patrick, Evan Selinger, William Braynen, Robert Rosenberger, Randy Au, Nancy Louie and John Connolly, 2005, Modeling Prejudice Reduction: Spatialized Game Theory and the Contact Hypothesis, Public Affairs Quarterly, 19(2), 95-125. Hardin, Russell, 1997, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict, 2nd edition, Princeton University Press. Pettigrew, Thomas F., 1971, Racially Separate or Together, McGraw-Hill. Sambanis, Nicholas, 2001, Do Ethnic and Non-Ethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry (Part I), Journal of Conflict Resolution, 45(3), 259-282. Srbljinovi, Armano, 2008, The Transition of a Multiethnic Community from Segregation to Cultural Pluralism, Doctoral thesis (in Croatian), University of Zagreb.  ) R   M     1 >   ( (   B      8      5                        @   2             $                   '         $            2 4             B 0Qh/hFY[]_adeg i!o"p#q$r%s&u'w(y){*~+,7  NFP(    66 "`P0}  6   06  ` 6 RB  s *DԔ   <{7    <;"`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +  dJ(  d d 6yf  "`P0}  f   d 0zf   ` f  RB d s *DԔ  d <kf 7  d d C <A $MPj03853170000[1] g d <f "`9V Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__    H d 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +r3!E7("m.( W  z.http://www.entorama.com0http://www.entorama.com//$R$(o (`M&K= 0AA 3o@ ʚ;9ʚ;g4BdBd9 0|ppp@  <4dddd x 0T՜.+,D՜.+,    (0 8 `On-screen Showmorh0 ArialVerdana Wingdings 01103891MAgent-based simulation of ethnic prejudice transmission using Entorama tool OutlineContact theoryThe role of contact$Unresolved issues of contact theoryTheoretical hypothesesSupport to the hypothesesSupport to the hypothesesReasons for using AB modellingBasic experimental designOperationalization the model&Basic setting: prejudice transmission&Basic setting: prejudice transmission(Extended setting: economic transactions(Extended setting: economic transactionsEthnic segregation patternsOperational hypothesesMicro-explanation (H0)Micro-explanation (H1a)Micro-explanation (H1b)Control variablesImplementation in Entorama References  Fonts UsedDesign Template Slide Titles(T\ _PID_HLINKS _TemplateIDAlhttp://www.entorama.com/TC011038911033a recession increases the probability of internal conflict. (Blomberg and Hess, 2002) Contact theory itself (2) Prejudice is lessened when the two groups: possess equal status, seek common goals, are cooperatively dependent upon each other, interact with the positive support of authorities, laws, or customs. (Pettigrew, 1971)`++             , C  b(Support to the hypotheses$J ECan we get additional support using an agent-based simulation model ?FF   c)Reasons for using AB modelling$d FAllows  playing with theries without the need to interfere with real human subjects Particularly adequate for investigating micro-foundations of macro-phenomena  7   @ f*Basic experimental design$J kDependent variable: ethnic prejudice Independent variables: level of contact, presence of economic context R    h+<Operationalization  the model$<2 model settings: Basic  Pure prejudice transmission model Corresponds to the absence of additional factors in contact theory Extended Prejudice transmission  embedded in economic context Economic context as additional factor 2 ethnic segregation patterns: High segregation  corresponds to low contact Low segregation  corresponds to high contactg \\g \             j,%Basic setting: prejudice transmission&& d  Agents of 2 ethnic groups:  blue and  red Main attribute: prejudice level Low, medium, or high Updated in each step by taking into account prejudice levels in an agent s  socializing circle  Socializing circle of an agent A (fixed) group of other agents that an agent meets and has an opportunity to  interact with Interaction = observing the prejudice level of the other agent`Lu!^?Lu!^?|           v2%Basic setting: prejudice transmission&& d  fProbability of interaction with a given agent from the socializing circle depends on: Ethnic membership of the given and the other agent Strength of the norm of exclusion within the given agent s ethnic group Prejudice level of the given and the other agent Strength of the norm of exclusion Group parameter indicating the inclination of group members to ostracize Members of other groups Members of the own group who are not willing to ostracize members of other groups Operationalized as a proportion of agents with high prejudice level within an ethnic group VZZ"ZJZjZ[ZZV"Jj\:               k-'Extended setting: economic transactions(( d  Basic setting extended with a simple economy of exchange with unlimited resources (EoE-UR) Additional attribute: wealth Each interaction accompanied with a simple economic transaction which increases the wealth of the interacting agents by random amount between 0 and 1         x3'Extended setting: economic transactions(( d fIf the wealth of the given agent is approximately equal to the wealth of the agents from the socializing circle: Prejudice level update is the same as in the basic setting If the wealth of the given agent is significantly less than the wealth of the agents from the socializing circle: The given agent is  dissatisfied and  has an incentive to try a new form of behaviour The new prejudice level of the given agent is chosen randomlyhqZ;ZrZZq;$<          z4Ethnic segregation patterns$J High segregation/low contact: Blue agents spatially segregated from red agents Low segregation/high contact: Blue agents spatially interspersed with red agentsL1313      l.Operational hypotheses$0  ?(H0) No significant effects of contact on ethnic prejudice in the absence of additional factors (basic setting) (H1a) Negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice (H1b) Amplifying effect of contact: Stronger negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice when the contact is high, than when the contact is lowf@Z2%#P        t10Micro-explanation  (H0)$< In the segregated setting agents only meet more agents of the other colour, all other things being equal. Prejudice level depends mainly on the amount of prejudice in the surroundings: If the proportions of prejudiced agents in the socializing circles are approximately equal (irrespective of the prevailing colour), prejudice levels of agents will stay approximately equal. Increased contact between groups will have no significant effect on prejudice.:QQL               |50Micro-explanation  (H1)$< Wealth increases with interaction Ideal-case assumption: unlimited resources, no competition Less prejudiced agents are  more open - have more opportunities for interaction There is a clear incentive to become less prejudiced L";Q6";p            }60Micro-explanation  (H2)$< In the non-segregated setting, prejudiced agents interact less than in the segregated setting (less  brethren in the surrounding) Prejudiced agents become less wealthy in the non-segregated setting than in the segregated setting There are more incentives to become less prejudiced in the non-segregated setting than in the segregated setting Stronger negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice in the non-segregated setting (when the contact is high)0ZIZXt               m0Control variables$0 Initial proportion of prejudiced agents in the population Radius of the socializing circle Population density &      n/Implementation in Entorama$JE" References $   Allport, Gordon W., 1954, The Nature of Prejudice, Addison-Wesley. Axelrod, Robert, 1997, The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration, Princeton University Press. Blomberg, S. Brock and Gregory D. Hess, 2002, The Temporal Links between Conflict and Economic Activity, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(1), 74-90. Bollerup, Sren Rinder and Christian Dons Christensen, 1997, Nationalism in Eastern Europe: Causes and Consequences of the National Revivals and Conflicts in Late-Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe. Macmillan. a e, Branimir, 2008, Entorama, http://www.entorama.com Forbes, Hugh D., 1997, Ethnic Conflict: Commerce, Culture, and the Contact Hypothesis, Yale University Press. Grim, Patrick, Evan Selinger, William Braynen, Robert Rosenberger, Randy Au, Nancy Louie and John Connolly, 2005, Modeling Prejudice Reduction: Spatialized Game Theory and the Contact Hypothesis, Public Affairs Quarterly, 19(2), 95-125. Hardin, Russell, 1997, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict, 2nd edition, Princeton University Press. Pettigrew, Thomas F., 1971, Racially Separate or Together, McGraw-Hill. Sambanis, Nicholas, 2001, Do Ethnic and Non-Ethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry (Part I), Journal of Conflict Resolution, 45(3), 259-282. Srbljinovi, Armano, 2008, The Transition of a Multiethnic Community from Segregation to Cultural Pluralism, Doctoral thesis (in Croatian), University of Zagreb.  ) R   M     1 >   ( (   B      8      5                        @   2             $                   '         $            2 4             B 0Qh/hFY[]_adeg i!o"p#q$r%s&u'w(y){*~+,r&/"m/S( W  z.http://www.entorama.com0http://www.entorama.com// 0DArialngs}0:A 0"DVerdanas}0:A 0" DWingdings}0:A 0@ .  @n?" dd@  @@`` 4,X0NDIWQ    * *C     H I   Z[\ ]^_` abcdefghij7kmnopqrstu vwxz{|}~b$.ړƀS٭MT02$@%CN锽2|0b$Wӣ۷aU/ b${ kR .Ii<\$$$$$$R$(o (`M&K= 0AA 3o@ ʚ;9ʚ;g4BdBd :A 0||ppp@  <4ddddL # 0g45d5d :A 0p@ pp0___PPT10 j___PPT9LD%, ? -O  =7E EAgent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama  FD&<    Outline$   Theoretical background Research hypotheses High-level description of the model Expected support from the model to the hypotheses Brief demonstration of the model using Entorama&   X#Contact theory$  bRelates contact between ethnic groups with prejudice within groups against members of other groups8c. c `'The role of contact$  dContact amplifies or reduces effects of other factors present in situations in which contact occurs @e0 e Z$#Unresolved issues of contact theory$$  $ tDoes not specify: Factors which might be influenced by contact Mechanisms by which contact influences other factors &cc u \%Theoretical hypotheses$  TEconomic context as  an additional factor of the contact theory Economic context impacts ethnic prejudice Contact moderates the influence of economic context PA\" " Ai  ^&Support to the hypotheses$  Empirical research (1) Higher levels of economic development reduce the likelihood of ethnic wars. (Sambanis, 2001) The occurrence of a recession increases the probability of internal conflict. (Blomberg and Hess, 2002) Contact theory itself (2) Prejudice is lessened when the two groups: possess equal status, seek common goals, are cooperatively dependent upon each other, interact with the positive support of authorities, laws, or customs. (Pettigrew, 1971)`++ @d  W   b(Support to the hypotheses$  ECan we get additional support using an agent-based simulation model ?FF F c)Reasons for using AB modelling$  HAllows  playing with theories without the need to interfere with real human subjects Particularly adequate for investigating micro-foundations of macro-phenomena   f*Basic experimental design$  kDependent variable: ethnic prejudice Independent variables: level of contact, presence of economic context  l h+<Operationalization  the model$   2 model settings: Basic  Pure prejudice transmission model Corresponds to the absence of additional factors in contact theory Extended Prejudice transmission  embedded in economic context Economic context as additional factor 2 ethnic segregation patterns: High segregation  corresponds to low contact Low segregation  corresponds to high contactg \\g \  _ j,%Basic setting: prejudice transmission&&  & Agents of 2 ethnic groups:  blue and  red Main attribute: prejudice level Low, medium, or high Updated in each step by taking into account prejudice levels in an agent s  socializing circle  Socializing circle of an agent A (fixed) group of other agents that an agent meets and has an opportunity to  interact with Interaction = observing the prejudice level of the other agent`Lu!^?Lu!^?  v2%Basic setting: prejudice transmission&&  & fProbability of interaction with a given agent from the socializing circle depends on: Ethnic membership of the given and the other agent Strength of the norm of exclusion within the given agent s ethnic group Prejudice level of the given and the other agent Strength of the norm of exclusion Group parameter indicating the inclination of group members to ostracize Members of other groups Members of the own group who are not willing to ostracize members of other groups Operationalized as a proportion of agents with high prejudice level within an ethnic group VZZ"ZJZjZ[ZZV"Jj\&  M k-'Extended setting: economic transactions((  (  Basic setting extended with a simple economy of exchange with unlimited resources (EoE-UR) Additional attribute: wealth Each interaction accompanied with a simple economic transaction which increases the wealth of the interacting agents by random amount between 0 and 1&S   x3'Extended setting: economic transactions((  ( fIf the wealth of the given agent is approximately equal to the wealth of the agents from the socializing circle: Prejudice level update is the same as in the basic setting If the wealth of the given agent is significantly less than the wealth of the agents from the socializing circle: The given agent is  dissatisfied and  has an incentive to try a new form of behaviour The new prejudice level of the given agent is chosen randomlyhqZ;ZrZZq;$<  z4Ethnic segregation patterns$  High segregation/low contact: Blue agents spatially segregated from red agents Low segregation/high contact: Blue agents spatially interspersed with red agentsL1313  l.Operational hyg45d5dX 0p@ pp0___PPT10 j___PPT9LD%, ? -O  =E LAgent-based simulation of ethnic prejudice transmission using Entorama tool  MKpotheses$  ?(H0) No significant effects of contact on ethnic prejudice in the absence of additional factors (basic setting) (H1a) Negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice (H1b) Amplifying effect of contact: Stronger negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice when the contact is high, than when the contact is lowf@Z2%#@  ]  O t10Micro-explanation  (H0)$  In the segregated setting agents only meet more agents of the other colour, all other things being equal. Prejudice level depends mainly on the amount of prejudice in the surroundings: If the proportions of prejudiced agents in the socializing circles are approximately equal (irrespective of the prevailing colour), prejudice levels of agents will stay approximately equal. Increased contact between groups will have no significant effect on prejudice.:QQ  |50Micro-explanation  (H1)$  Wealth increases with interaction Ideal-case assumption: unlimited resources, no competition Less prejudiced agents are  more open - have more opportunities for interaction There is a clear incentive to become less prejudiced L";Q6";  }60Micro-explanation  (H2)$  In the non-segregated setting, prejudiced agents interact less than in the segregated setting (less  brethren in the surrounding) Prejudiced agents become less wealthy in the non-segregated setting than in the segregated setting There are more incentives to become less prejudiced in the non-segregated setting than in the segregated setting Stronger negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice in the non-segregated setting (when the contact is high)0ZIZXt&x  Q m0Control variables$  Initial proportion of prejudiced agents in the population Radius of the socializing circle Population density &  q n/Implementation in Entorama$&   E" References $   Allport, Gordon W., 1954, The Nature of Prejudice, Addison-Wesley. Axelrod, Robert, 1997, The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration, Princeton University Press. Blomberg, S. Brock and Gregory D. Hess, 2002, The Temporal Links between Conflict and Economic Activity, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(1), 74-90. Bollerup, Sren Rinder and Christian Dons Christensen, 1997, Nationalism in Eastern Europe: Causes and Consequences of the National Revivals and Conflicts in Late-Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe. Macmillan. a e, Branimir, 2008, Entorama, http://www.entorama.com Forbes, Hugh D., 1997, Ethnic Conflict: Commerce, Culture, and the Contact Hypothesis, Yale University Press. Grim, Patrick, Evan Selinger, William Braynen, Robert Rosenberger, Randy Au, Nancy Louie and John Connolly, 2005, Modeling Prejudice Reduction: Spatialized Game Theory and the Contact Hypothesis, Public Affairs Quarterly, 19(2), 95-125. Hardin, Russell, 1997, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict, 2nd edition, Princeton University Press. Pettigrew, Thomas F., 1971, Racially Separate or Together, McGraw-Hill. Sambanis, Nicholas, 2001, Do Ethnic and Non-Ethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry (Part I), Journal of Conflict Resolution, 45(3), 259-282. Srbljinovi, Armano, 2008, The Transition of a Multiethnic Community from Segregation to Cultural Pluralism, Doctoral thesis (in Croatian), University of Zagreb.  ) R   M     1 >   ( (   B       <                       E             B 0Qh/hFY[]_adeg i!o"p#q$r%s&u'w(y){*~+, ` 3ۢf>?" dd@?" dd@   @ ` n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` ` p>>    >(  x  s *S"?P   Bѐ"YP B      0Tڐ "` N 10th International Conference  Describing Complex Systems  DECOS Zadar, Croatia, September 4-6, 20084i  d &E   H  0޽h ? 3ۢf80___PPT10.s 01103891   (  X  0A? P  C (Aff_logo D00   0 ; > ; RB  s *DԔ00j  0!;  jArmano Srbljinovi Ministry of Defence  Institute for Research and Development of Defence Systems, Zagreb, Croatia Vjekoslav Afri Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences University of Zagreb, Croatia Branimir a e Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture University of Zagreb, Croatia 8Pa(8PPI(8PPX(8P `   I  Y    c     K    Z b  C ,Airos_0_70"`  H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.5 .+D=' = @B +  P((    66 "`P0}  6   06  ` 6 RB  s *DԔ   <{7     <;"`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +*  A9 (    6L; "`P0}  ;   0 ;  ` ; RB  s *DԔ   <\;7     <ܻ;"`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >      H;gֳgֳ?Pz,$ 0 o Gordon W. Allport: The Nature of Prejudice, 1954 Thomas F. Pettigrew: Racially Separate or Together, 1971 <$m%$p&   \ H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +  @ +(    6; "`P0}  ;   0;  ` ; RB  s *DԔ   <;7     <;"`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >     6(;"`  MContact    6<;@ P  S Other factors     6;@ P  WEthnic prejudice  RB   s *D`  ` RB  s *D ` H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +      (    6c  "`P0}  c    0c   ` c  RB  s *DԔ   <c 7     <(     6t;"`@ P  MContact    6;c    S Other factors     6LCc    WEthnic prejudice  RB   s *D  RB   s *DP    < Ic  \  K?6     <Lc P  K?6  H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +   H(    6pTc  "`P0}  c    0Zc   ` c  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <67     <dc "`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >     6_c "`  MContact    6mc  0 ZEconomic context     6qc  0 WEthnic prejudice  RB   s *D@ @RB   s *D @H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +   >(    6`{c  "`P0}  c    0Hc   ` c  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <c 7     <c "`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +   7 / ` (     6c "`` <    6c  "`P0}  c    0c   ` c  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <c 7     <c "`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >     6c "`  MContact    6c    VEconomic context     6(c    WEthnic prejudice  RB   s *D0  0 RB   s *D 0   <Hc <pL WAgent-based model  H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +  0((    6Tc  "`P0}  c    0B5  ` c  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <Hc 7     <c "`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   z  Hlc gֳgֳ?,$ 0 > Micro-sociological foundations of group movements and conflicts have been neglected in political science, mainly because the proper theoretical tools to investigate the motives and thoughts of individuals, as well as the mechanisms and conditions of group mobilization, are lacking. (Bollerup and Christensen, 1997) . " (?>    H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +^   um6(    6c  "`P0}  c  RB  s *DԔ   <lc 7     <c "`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   `b " s *"`  fb # 0"`  `b $ s *"`  fb % 0"`  `b & s *"` fb ' 0"` `b ( s *"`  fb ) 0"`  ` * s *"`@ f + 0"`@ , <d f  /Contact   - <(d  d  8Economic context   . < d   `  +low   / <Hd  @  +low   0 <d  4  ,high   1 <$d  `  ,high   2 <d  $  /present   3 <Ld  ` /present   4 <d R $  O not present K    5 <$d @ D~  O not present K    6 0.d   ` d  "  @H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B + ! >(    63d  "`P0}  d    0$:d   ` d  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <4Gd 7     <@g5"`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B + " >(    6Qd  "`P0}  d    0TUd   ` d  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <j57     <cd "`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B + ( 4>(  4 4 6md  "`P0}  d   4 0wd   ` d  "  @RB 4 s *DԔ  4 <ld 7    4 <5"`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   H 4 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B + # >(    6   H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B + ) <>(  < < 6d  "`P}  d   < 0d   ` d  "  @RB < s *DԔ  < <P57    < <d "`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   H < 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B + * D>(  D D 6d  "`P}  d   D 08d   ` d  "  @RB D s *DԔ  D <@d 7    D <5"`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   H D 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B + $ 0>(    6d  "`P0}  d    0Dd   ` d  "  @RB  s *DԔ   <$d 7     <d "`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B + ' ,>(  , , 6f  "`P0}  f   , 0 f   ` f  "  @RB , s *DԔ  , <X67    , <Lf "`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   H , 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B + +  L>(  L L 6f  "`P0}  f   L 0%f   ` f  "  @RB L s *DԔ  L <z67    L <L4f "`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   H L 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B + , @T>(  T T 6>f  "`P0}  f   T 0Ef   ` f  "  @RB T s *DԔ  T <Mf 7    T <Qf "`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   H T 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B + & p >(      6\f  "`P0}  f     0hbf   ` f  "  @RB   s *DԔ    <Dif 7      <pf "`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   H   0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +s % P(    66 "` `}  6 RB  s *DԔ   <X67     <6"`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   v  6A ?0s  6H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +  d(  d d 6yf  "`P0}  f   d 0zf   ` f  RB d s *DԔ  d <kf 7   d d C <A $MPj03853170000[1] g d <f "`9V \Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama__h      >   H d 0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +r # *2EcXT8ZH\R^Z`?b d`jfrhjPͤItlvQxz.|  mXT( W  z.http://www.entorama.com0http://www.entorama.com/Root EntrydO)Pg "@PicturesCurrent User)SummaryInformation($U      #$&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~%! _ 0AcoAcoasmina.+,    (0 8 W0On-screen Shown-smorhree&/{ ArialVerdana Wingdings 01103891FAgent-based modelling of ethnic prejudice transmission with Entorama h   "     Outline$   Theoretical background Research hypotheses High-level description of the model Expected support from the model to the hypotheses Brief demonstration of the model using Entorama&   X#Contact theory$  bRelates contact between ethnic groups with prejudice within groups against members of other groups8c. c `'The role of contact$  dContact amplifies or reduces effects of other factors present in situations in which contact occurs @e0 e Z$#Unresolved issues of contact theory$$  $ tDoes not specify: Factors which might be influenced by contact Mechanisms by which contact influences other factors &cc u \%Theoretical hypotheses$  TEconomic context as  an additional factor of the contact theory Economic context impacts ethnic prejudice Contact moderates the influence of economic context PA\" " Ai  ^&Support to the hypotheses$  Empirical research (1) Higher levels of economic development reduce the likelihood of ethnic wars. (Sambanis, 2001) The occurrence of a recession increases the probability of internal conflict. (Blomberg and Hess, 2002) Contact theory itself (2) Prejudice is lessened when the two groups: possess equal status, seek common goals, are cooperatively dependent upon each other, interact with the positive support of authorities, laws, or customs. (Pettigrew, 1971)`++ @d  W   b(Support to the hypotheses$  ECan we get additional support using an agent-based simulation model ?FF F c)Reasons for using AB modelling$  HAllows  playing with theories without the need to interfere with real human subjects Particularly adequate for investigating micro-foundations of macro-phenomena   f*Basic experimental design$  kDependent variable: ethnic prejudice Independent variables: level of contact, presence of economic context  l h+<Operationalization  the model$   2 model settings: Basic  Pure prejudice transmission model Corresponds to the absence of additional factors in contact theory Extended Prejudice transmission  embedded in economic context Economic context as additional factor 2 ethnic segregation patterns: High segregation  corresponds to low contact Low segregation  corresponds to high contactg \\g \  _ j,%Basic setting: prejudice transmission&&  & Agents of 2 ethnic groups:  blue and  red Main attribute: prejudice level Low, medium, or high Updated in each step by taking into account prejudice levels in an agent s  socializing circle  Socializing circle of an agent A (fixed) group of other agents that an agent meets and has an opportunity to  interact with Interaction = observing the prejudice level of the other agent`Lu!^?Lu!^?  v2%Basic setting: prejudice transmission&&  & fProbability of interaction with a given agent from the socializing circle depends on: Ethnic membership of the given and the other agent Strength of the norm of exclusion within the given agent s ethnic group Prejudice level of the given and the other agent Strength of the norm of exclusion Group parameter indicating the inclination of group members to ostracize Members of other groups Members of the own group who are not willing to ostracize members of other groups Operationalized as a proportion of agents with high prejudice level within an ethnic group VZZ"ZJZjZ[ZZV"Jj\&  M k-'Extended setting: economic transactions((  (  Basic setting extended with a simple economy of exchange with unlimited resources (EoE-UR) Additional attribute: wealth Each interaction accompanied with a simple economic transaction which increases the wealth of the interacting agents by random amount between 0 and 1&S   x3'Extended setting: economic transactions((  ( fIf the wealth of the given agent is approximately equal to the wealth of the agents from the socializing circle: Prejudice level update is the same as in the basic setting If the wealth of the given agent is significantly less than the wealth of the agents from the socializing circle: The given agent is  dissatisfied and  has an incentive to try a new form of behaviour The new prejudice level of the given agent is chosen randomlyhqZ;ZrZZq;$<  z4Ethnic segregation patterns$        !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz|}~High segregation/low contact: Blue agents spatially segregated from red agents Low segregation/high contact: Blue agents spatially interspersed with red agentsL1313  l.Operational hypotheses$  ?(H0) No significant effects of contact on ethnic prejudice in the absence of additional factors (basic setting) (H1a) Negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice (H1b) Amplifying effect of contact: Stronger negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice when the contact is high, than when the contact is lowf@Z2%#@  ]  O t10Micro-explanation  (H0)$  In the segregated setting agents only meet more agents of the other colour, all other things being equal. Prejudice level depends mainly on the amount of prejudice in the surroundings: If the proportions of prejudiced agents in the socializing circles are approximately equal (irrespective of the prevailing colour), prejudice levels of agents will stay approximately equal. Increased contact between groups will have no significant effect on prejudice.:QQ  |50Micro-explanation  (H1)$  Wealth increases with interaction Ideal-case assumption: unlimited resources, no competition Less prejudiced agents are  more open - have more opportunities for interaction There is a clear incentive to become less prejudiced L";Q6";  }60Micro-explanation  (H2)$  In the non-segregated setting, prejudiced agents interact less than in the segregated setting (less  brethren in the surrounding) Prejudiced agents become less wealthy in the non-segregated setting than in the segregated setting There are more incentives to become less prejudiced in the non-segregated setting than in the segregated setting Stronger negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice in the non-segregated setting (when the contact is high)0ZIZXt&x  Q m0Control variables$  Initial proportion of prejudiced agents in the population Radius of the socializing circle Population density &  q n/Implementation in Entorama$&   E" References $   Allport, Gordon W., 1954, The Nature of Prejudice, Addison-Wesley. Axelrod, Robert, 1997, The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration, Princeton University Press. Blomberg, S. Brock and Gregory D. Hess, 2002, The Temporal Links between Conflict and Economic Activity, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(1), 74-90. Bollerup, Sren Rinder and Christian Dons Christensen, 1997, Nationalism in Eastern Europe: Causes and Consequences of the National Revivals and Conflicts in Late-Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe. Macmillan. a e, Branimir, 2008, Entorama, http://www.entorama.com Forbes, Hugh D., 1997, Ethnic Conflict: Commerce, Culture, and the Contact Hypothesis, Yale University Press. Grim, Patrick, Evan Selinger, William Braynen, Robert Rosenberger, Randy Au, Nancy Louie and John Connolly, 2005, Modeling Prejudice Reduction: Spatialized Game Theory and the Contact Hypothesis, Public Affairs Quarterly, 19(2), 95-125. Hardin, Russell, 1997, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict, 2nd edition, Princeton University Press. Pettigrew, Thomas F., 1971, Racially Separate or Together, McGraw-Hill. Sambanis, Nicholas, 2001, Do Ethnic and Non-Ethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry (Part I), Journal of Conflict Resolution, 45(3), 259-282. Srbljinovi, Armano, 2008, The Transition of a Multiethnic Community from Segregation to Cultural Pluralism, Doctoral thesis (in Croatian), University of Zagreb.  ) R   M     1 >   ( (   B       <                       E              0Qh/hFY[]_adeg i!o"p#q$r%s&u'w(y){*~+, 0   (  X  0A? P  C (Aff_logo D00   0 > # RB  s *DԔ00j  0#  jArmano Srbljinovi Ministry of Defence  Institute for Research and Development of Defence Systems, Zagreb, Croatia Vjekoslav Afri Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences University of Zagreb, Croatia Branimir a e Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture University of Zagreb, Croatia 8Pa(8PPI(8PPX(8P `   I  Y    c     K    Z b  C ,Airos_0_70"`  H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.5 .+D=' = @B +r,R! ])1VT( W  z.http://www.entorama.com0http://www.entorama.com// 0DArialngs0TT,ܖ 0ܖDVerdanas0TT,ܖ 0ܖ" DWingdings0TT,ܖ 0ܖ@ .  @n?" dd@  @@`` 4,X0NDIWQ    * *C     H I   Z[\ ]^_` abcdefgh ij8kmnopqrstu vwxz{| }~b$.ړƀS٭MT02$@%CN锽2|0b$Wӣ۷aU/ b${ kR .Ii<\$$$$$$R$(o (`M&K= 0AA 3o@ ʚ;9ʚ;g4BdBd9 0ppp@  <4dddd x 0Tg45d5dX 0p@ pp0___PPT10 j___PPT9LD%, ? -O  =E LAgent-based simulation of ethnic prejudice transmission using Entorama tool  MKh   "     Outline$   Theoretical background Research hypotheses High-level description of the model Expected support from the model to the hypotheses Brief demonstration of the model using Entorama&   X#Contact theory$  bRelates contact between ethnic groups with prejudice within groups against members of other groups8c. c `'The role of contact$  dContact amplifies or reduces effects of other factors present in situations in which contact occurs @e0 e Z$#Unresolved issues of contact theory$$  $ tDoes not specify: Factors which might be influenced by contact Mechanisms by which contact influences other factors &cc u \%Theoretical hypotheses$  TEconomic context as  an additional factor of the contact theory Economic context impacts ethnic prejudice Contact moderates the influence of economic context PA\" " Ai  ^&Support to the hypotheses$  Empirical research (1) Higher levels of economic development reduce the likelihood of ethnic wars. (Sambanis, 2001) The occurrence of a recession increases the probability of internal conflict. (Blomberg and Hess, 2002) Contact theory itself (2) Prejudice is lessened when the two groups: possess equal status, seek common goals, are cooperatively dependent upon each other, interact with the positive support of authorities, laws, or customs. (Pettigrew, 1971)`++ @d  W   b(Support to the hypotheses$  ECan we get additional support using an agent-based simulation model ?FF F c)Reasons for using AB modelling$  HAllows  playing with theories without the need to interfere with real human subjects Particularly adequate for investigating micro-foundations of macro-phenomena   f*Basic experimental design$  kDependent variable: ethnic prejudice Independent variables: level of contact, presence of economic context  l h+<Operationalization  the model$   2 model settings: Basic  Pure prejudice transmission model Corresponds to the absence of additional factors in contact theory Extended Prejudice transmission  embedded in economic context Economic context as additional factor 2 ethnic segregation patterns: High segregation  corresponds to low contact Low segregation  corresponds to high contactg \\g \  _ j,%Basic setting: prejudice transmission&&  & Agents of 2 ethnic groups:  blue and  red Main attribute: prejudice level Low, medium, or high Updated in each step by taking into account prejudice levels in an agent s  socializing circle  Socializing circle of an agent A (fixed) group of other agents that an agent meets and has an opportunity to  interact with Interaction = observing the prejudice level of the other agent`Lu!^?Lu!^?  v2%Basic setting: prejudice transmission&&  & fProbability of interaction with a given agent from the socializing circle depends on: Ethnic membership of the given and the other agent Strength of the norm of exclusion within the given agent s ethnic group Prejudice level of the given and the other agent Strength of the norm of exclusion Group parameter indicating the inclination of group members to ostracize Members of other groups Members of the own group who are not willing to ostracize members of other groups Operationalized as a proportion of agents with high prejudice level within an ethnic group VZZ"ZJZjZ[ZZV"Jj\&  M k-'Extended setting: economic transactions((  (  Basic setting extended with a simple economy of exchange with unlimited resources (EoE-UR) Additional attribute: wealth Each interaction accompanied with a simple economic transaction which increases the wealth of the interacting agents by random amount between 0 and 1&S   x3'Extended setting: economic transactions((  ( fIf the wealth of the given agent is approximately equal to the wealth of the agents from the socializing circle: Prejudice level update is the same as in the basic setting If the wealth of the given agent is significantly less than the wealth of the agents from the socializing circle: The given agent is  dissatisfied and  has an incentive to try a new form of behaviour The new prejudice level of the given agent is chosen randomlyhqZ;ZrZZq;$<  z4Ethnic segregation patterns$  High segregation/low contact: Blue agents spatially segregated from red agents Low segregation/high contact: Blue agents spatially interspersed with red agentsL1313  l.Operational hypotheses$  ?(H0) No significant effects of contact on ethnic prejudice in the absence of additional factors (basic setting) (H1a) Negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice (H1b) Amplifying effect of contact: Stronger negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice when the contact is high, than when the contact is lowf@Z2%#@  ]  O t10Micro-explanation  (H0)$  In the segregated setting agents only meet more agents of the other colour, all other things being equal. Prejudice level depends mainly on the amount of prejudice in the surroundings: If the proportions of prejudiced agents in the socializing circles are approximately equal (irrespective of the prevailing colour), prejudice levels of agents will stay approximately equal. Increased contact between groups will have no significant effect on prejudice.:QQ  |52Micro-explanation  (H1a)$&  Wealth increases with interaction Ideal-case assumption: unlimited resources, no competition Less prejudiced agents are  more open - have more opportunities for interaction There is a clear incentive to become less prejudiced L";Q6";  }62Micro-explanation  (H1b)$&  In the non-segregated setting, prejudiced agents interact less than in the segregated setting (less  brethren in the surrounding) Prejudiced agents become less wealthy in the non-segregated setting than in the segregated setting There are more incentives to become less prejudiced in the non-segregated setting than in the segregated setting Stronger negative effect of the EoE-UR on ethnic prejudice in the non-segregated setting (when the contact is high)0ZIZXt&x  Q m0Control variables$  Initial proportion of prejudiced agents in the population Radius of the socializing circle Population density &  q n/Implementation in Entorama$&   E" References $   Allport, Gordon W., 1954, The Nature of Prejudice, Addison-Wesley. Axelrod, Robert, 1997, The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration, Princeton University Press. Blomberg, S. Brock and Gregory D. Hess, 2002, The Temporal Links between Conflict and Economic Activity, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(1), 74-90. Bollerup, Sren Rinder and Christian Dons Christensen, 1997, Nationalism in Eastern Europe: Causes and Consequences of the National Revivals and Conflicts in Late-Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe. Macmillan. a e, Branimir, 2008, Entorama, http://www.entorama.com Forbes, Hugh D., 1997, Ethnic Conflict: Commerce, Culture, and the Contact Hypothesis, Yale University Press. Grim, Patrick, Evan Selinger, William Braynen, Robert Rosenberger, Randy Au, Nancy Louie and John Connolly, 2005, Modeling Prejudice Reduction: Spatialized Game Theory and the Contact Hypothesis, Public Affairs Quarterly, 19(2), 95-125. Hardin, Russell, 1997, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict, 2nd edition, Princeton University Press. Pettigrew, Thomas F., 1971, Racially Separate or Together, McGraw-Hill. Sambanis, Nicholas, 2001, Do Ethnic and Non-Ethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry (Part I), Journal of Conflict Resolution, 45(3), 259-282. Srbljinovi, Armano, 2008, The Transition of a Multiethnic Community from Segregation to Cultural Pluralism, Doctoral thesis (in Croatian), University of Zagreb.  ) R   M     1 >   ( (   B       <                       E              0Qh/hFY[]_adeg i!o"p#q$r%s&u'w(y){*~+,  0 Px(    6>; "`P0}  ;   0>;  ` ; RB  s *DԔ   <#7   &  <H%"`9V1 Srbljinovi, Afri, a e: Agent-based simulation of ethnic prejudice transmission using Entorama toolff        "    H  0޽h ? 3ۢf___PPT10i.J 5+D=' = @B +z  0  !(    6,F; "`P0}  ;   0G;  ` ; RB  s *DԔ   <|L;7      H S;gֳgֳ?Pz,$ 0 o Gordon W. Allport: The Nature of Prejudice, 1954 Thomas F. 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